A Lightning Round (04.19.24)

Israel strikes back softly, Johnson pulls a Pence, and Trump digs a hole

Image courtesy of MSNBC

With several stories in the news, it’s time for a lightning round.

Israel counterstrikes… softly

Despite the initial breathless, apocalyptic coverage on Fox last night, Israel’s widely anticipated counterstrike on Iran was decidedly muted. When more reputable news media could assess the attack responsibly, it turns out only a few drones had entered Iranian territory (at least according to Iran). Importantly, they had targeted a remote military installation, not populated civilian areas.

Iran downplayed the counterattack, admitting to the incursion but not confirming who had attacked. (Spoiler alert: It was Israel.) Iran also claimed it had suffered minimal damage from the attack, though the extent of it could not be fully ascertained.

The attack was apparently intended to demonstrate that Israel could reach targets inside of Iran. But it was small enough to signal that Israel would rather deescalate the current exchanges of fire than risk a full-out regional war. 

There is no real reason for Iran to hit back at this time, given that Israel has effectively ratcheted down the tension. U.S. officials, who had pressured Israel not to up the ante, are monitoring the situation closely. The U.S. did add sanctions upon Iran in response to its attack, but the real question is whether Israel is done hitting back. If tempers cool and hostilities cease between the two regional powers, it will be a significant win for the Biden administration’s diplomatic efforts.

Speaker Johnson pulls a Mike Pence

In other good news, it appears Speaker Johnson has fully come around to funding Ukrainian aid, along with one for Israel that also contain humanitarian aid for Gaza and a separate aid bill for Taiwan. Johnson came out with a strong public statement that set him squarely within the ranks of “traditional” Republicans on the question of curbing Russian aggression:

“I really do believe the intel and the briefings that we’ve gotten,” Johnson said, in moment of candor that caught many surprise. “I think that Vladimir Putin would continue to march through Europe if he were allowed. I think he might go to the Balkans next. I think he might have a showdown with Poland, or one of our NATO allies.” If so, Johnson warned, the U.S. might find itself sending its own troops to defend allies against further Russian aggression.

It took many months and a lot of pressure from the party’s traditional hawks to get Johnson to this point. And unsurprisingly, it drew a furious response from the Putin caucus, whose members have threatened to bring Johnson down in a motion to vacate. Several of them corralled the Speaker on the House floor yesterday, with Johnson reportedly raising his voice and pointing his finger. One ally of Johnson’s, Rep. Derrick Van Orden (R-WI), resorted to name calling against Rep. Matt Gaetz (F-FL), dubbing him “tubby” in the heated exchange, according to witnesses. The GOP conference is many things, but mature is not one of them.

Johnson’s behind-the-scenes maneuvering to get the Ukraine bill through also passed a critical test yesterday. A far-right revolt by three Freedom Caucus members in the powerful Rules Committee was overcome by a true political unicorn: Democrats voting with Republicans to pass the Rule.

It is a time-honored procedure for the party in opposition never to support the rule vote, because this process sets the boundaries of who is in charge. The Speaker controls the agenda of the House by controlling the Rules Committee, which decides what bills come up for a vote. If the Speaker must turning to the other to get Rules votes through, then it is fair to ask who really is leading.

I cannot stress how upside-down this is, and I can’t think of another time outside of this Congress that it has happened. It is like watching a soccer game where members of the other team suddenly turn around and help your team score a goal. But I will take the win.

The possibility that Democrats are in cahoots with less extreme Republicans on the Rules Committee led many on the far right to question whether they would then be stripped of their powers, including the power of a single member to bring a motion to vacate. The Freedom Caucus positioned some of its members on the House floor to make sure a bill didn’t sneak out and destroy their power base. They called it the “Floor Action Response Team.”

No such stealth bills caused the FART to rise in response. But the question now is, will Johnson survive a motion to vacate by turning to Democrats for help? Once the aid bills pass the House, as is now expected sometime this weekend (all fingers crossed!), it will be some time before Rep. Marjorie Taylor Greene (Q-GA) can revive her motion to vacate. In this time, the far right may decide to cool its heels, because nothing would be more humiliating for them than to lose that motion because a few Democrats have decided to block it.

Again, I have to blink twice at how unprecedented this would be. Democrats voting for any Republican Speaker, let alone an extremist, anti-abortion Christian Nationalist, would have been unthinkable before this session. But a critical number of Democrats believe they can actually work with Johnson because he hasn’t backstabbed them the way Kevin McCarthy had. Johnson hasn’t gone back on his word, at least not yet, and he has signaled he wants the same thing that Democrats want when it comes to Ukraine. 

In short, Johnson is truly awful, but he’s doing the right thing right now, much the way Pence did on January 6. Just as you don’t interrupt your enemies when they are making a grave mistake, you don’t stop them either when they are doing the right thing.

This is not to say Johnson will stay on much longer if he has to rely on Democratic votes going forward. That’s an untenable position in the long term. It’s only to say that the first motion to vacate—brought against him because he stepped up for Ukraine—isn’t something a critical number of Democrats would get behind.

Trump digs a hole

That previous section was a bit long for a lightning round, so I’ll make this part about Trump shorter and sweet.

A jury of 12 Manhattanites is now seated in Trump’s first criminal trial. That itself is momentous news, and far quicker than most had expected. Judge Merchan is moving things along, even after some road bumps including having to excuse a juror who feared she could be identified from public descriptions of her employment history and another who seemingly had lied about his past activities.

For your Schadenfriday moment, Trump’s lawyers had sought to strike jurors for cause because of things they had written publicly about him, all of which Trump had to sit and listen to. This was one of my favorites:

Trump is very unused to hearing any criticism of him from other people, having always surrounded himself with fawning sycophants and brown nosers. So this is a refreshing and rather delightful change.

Trump also isn’t winning any friends on the jury after refusing to stand and face them when they entered. As many lifelong litigators remarked, they have never witnessed any case where the defendant didn’t stand out of respect for the people who are giving of their time to stand in judgment of the defendant. Trump just can’t help digging that hole.

Speaking of which, today, there’s also a hearing on what damning evidence might be used against Trump should he foolishly decide to take the stand. For you legal nerds, this is called a Sandoval hearing, and if you want a good summary of it, I recommend Prof. Joyce Vance’s substack today on the subject. Among the evidence that the DA’s office has listed are times Trump testified untruthfully under oath, lied about the size and value of his Trump Tower apartment, and made false statements about E. Jean Carroll.

You don’t have to have a law degree from Harvard (and really, it’s overpriced) to conclude that Trump really should not take the stand. And he almost certainly is just saying he will for press and attention, because his testimony under oath would sink him. 

Welp.

Have a great weekend!

Jay