After 200 Days of War, a Stunning Victory by Ukraine. Is This a Turning Point?

Over the past few days, the Armed Forces of Ukrainian (AFU) dealt a major blow to Russia’s war effort in the eastern part of the country, where a grinding war of attrition over vast, open territory had left many wondering if the war would drag on for years. Ukraine recaptured so much territory, and so quickly, that experts are now reassessing their prior assumptions. Is this a true turning point in the war?

What Ukraine Did

A big push many months ago by Russia into the Kharkiv Oblast (meaning “region”) had settled into a long line of defense for Russia in its campaign to control the eastern part of the country, including specifically the oblasts of Donetsk and Luhansk, which together are known as the “Donbas.” Moscow’s control of the Kharkiv region, which is a bit to the north and west, bordering Russia, was critical to the supply of its troops because many of the most important rail lines and highways ran through key centers it held in the region, including Kypiansk and Izyum (see map). 

To keep its Donbas campaign strong, Russia had to peel off forces from elsewhere, including in the South where it had seized cities including Kherson and Mariupol on the coast of the Black Sea. For the past three months, Ukrainian forces had been battering Russian defenses around the occupied areas in the South, forcing Russia to reinforce there. Then Ukraine made a big announcement in early September that it was beginning its major offensive around Kherson, considered the gateway to the Crimean peninsula. Russia, on cue, rushed reinforcements and weaponry to the southern campaign.

That was when Ukraine pulled its surprise attack in the North. With Putin and his generals’ gazes fixed on Kherson and the Black Sea, they were caught wholly off-guard when Ukraine broke through their defensive lines in the Kharkiv Oblast. In a matter of days, Ukrainian forces swept eastward, capturing the crucial transportation hubs of Kypiansk and Izyum. Aside from some sporadic fighting, Russian forces largely panicked and capitulated, fleeing across to the east or to the south (a Russian spokesperson laughably referred to it a “regrouping”) and leaving behind a trove of military equipment and ammunition.

The result is that nearly the entirety of the region around Kharkiv is now in Ukrainian hands, including areas all the way up to the Russian border in the North. According to the latest British intelligence update, Russia “has likely ordered the withdrawal of its troops from the entirety of the occupied Kharkiv Oblast west of the Oskil River.” 

The victory is as consequential as the defeat of the Russian forces near Kyiv early in the war. Ukraine claims to have recaptured over 3,000 square kilometers of territory, something that it took months for Russia to take and hold. Indeed, the Institute for the Study of War reported that the AFU captured more territory in the past five days “than Russian forces have captured in all their operations since April.”

Why was the campaign so successful?

According to military experts, the counteroffensive succeeded because of three primary reasons: surprise, equipment, and morale. The speed and ferocity of the attack caught Russian defenses off-guard, especially because Moscow’s attention has been fixed on the South near Kherson. NATO-supplied armored vehicles, HIMARS rocket launchers, and other heavy equipment provided the AFU with superior firepower and mobility. But most importantly, when confronted with a determined enemy, the Russian forces, lacking in discipline and supplies, failed to put up a fight. 

The Russian military has been relying upon young recruits from poorer parts of the country rather than elect to mobilize its reserve of two million soldiers, which would draw from cities such as Moscow and St. Petersburg. These newer soldiers often enlist primarily for a paycheck because they often have no other way to support their families back home, especially with the economic downturn and loss of job opportunities from international sanctions. The recruits were poorly fed, poorly housed, and poorly equipped, with no love lost between them and their commanders. When the better fed, supplied and highly motivated Ukrainian forces attacked, the Russians capitulated quickly. Many simply turned and ran rather than risk being killed or captured.

Alexander Vindman, the former NSC staffer who famously testified against Trump on the Ukrainian scandal that led to the former president’s impeachment, observed that the campaigned marked “a strategic morale [and] political defeat” for the Russian army. “Routs are infectious,” he reminded, further predicting that it was likely to spread to the Donetsk and Luhansk operations.

How is Russia responding?

After days of silence, a Russian defense minister finally spoke out about the losses its armed forces had just suffered. His words were somber and muted. “The military operation continues,” Kremlin spokesperson Dmitiri Peskov said. “And it will continue until the goals that were originally set are achieved.” He assured that Putin was aware of the situation. “Of course, any actions of the military that they perform as part of the special operation are reported to the Supreme Commander,” Peskov said. “The president is in round-the-clock communication with the Minister of Defense and with all military commanders. It cannot be otherwise during the special military operation.”

Until that statement, which is likely to raise more questions than it answered, it was as if the defeat had not happened. Moscos went ahead with firework celebrations of the city’s founding, even as the nation’s armed forces were abandoning the entire defensive front near Kharkiv. Russian nationalists and pro-war commentators on social media have responded with fury, disbelief and calls for a massive escalation.

That isn’t likely to happen. For Russia to have any chance of retaking the vast areas it just lost, Putin would need to order a mass mobilization of reserves. But given the number of casualties Russia faces on the front lines, this would inevitably raise the specter of daily funerals in the big cities, something Putin may not be able to survive politically.

For the first time, we are also seeing Putin apologists on state run television actually call for negotiations, with a lot of finger pointing and blame directed at Putin’s advisors, who had promised quick victories and an embrace of Russian occupiers by Ukrainians, especially in the more heavily Russian-speaking parts of the country to the East and South. That of course never happened and was a massive, nearly laughable assertion and prediction. The punditry aren’t at the point where they dare blame Putin himself for the fiasco of a “special military operation,” but they are about as close as they can come to it.

Meanwhile, and apparently in retaliation for the humiliating counteroffensive, Russia lobbed longer range missiles overnight at Ukrainian cities to attack the power grid of the country, blacking out large parts of the country. But while airstrikes can sow momentary panic and damage critical infrastructure, it cannot replace forces on the ground who are needed to hold territory.

There have been some reported shifts in the Russian command structure in response to the defeat in the Kharkiv Oblast. Importantly, the general in command of Russia’s western army group was sacked, according to Ukrainian military intelligence: Gen. Roman Berdnikov apparently was replaced after only 17 days in his post.

Is this a major turning point?

Most military observers look at Russia’s catastrophic losses over the past few days and see not only thousands of soldiers killed or captured and huge numbers of abandoned equipment and ammunition, but also critical logistical problems for Russia going forward that may prove insurmountable. The cities of Kypiansk and Izyum were key to the resupply of Russia’s forward positions, and without those lines Moscow has no effective way to push back on the ground and hold its positions, even if it could muster some kind of a counterstrike. The complete withdrawal of Russian forces from the Kharkiv Oblast means that Ukraine will be able to press its offensive further eastward without worrying about Russian supplies coming in easily north of Kharkiv. This will strongly benefit the Ukrainian effort to retake the Donbas. 

Ukraine will need to be careful not to overstretch its own supply routes and resources, so the primary question for Ukrainian commanders is where the current offensive push will stop so they can regroup, resupply and reposition. The decision is a heartbreaking one, because it necessarily will leave many Ukrainian citizens still under brutal Russian occupation.

Meanwhile, Ukrainian forces continue to put pressure in the South around Kherson and Mariupol. Russian forces that are west of the Dnipol river in the region look particularly vulnerable, and we may see a retreat there by Russian forces in the coming days.

The sheer size of the territorial recovery and the liberation of dozens of towns and cities will give an enormous morale boost for the Ukrainian people. President Zelenskyy was cautiously upbeat so as to not to create false expectations, saying that their progress from here would be forward but slower, while also insisting that there would be no negotiations with Russia until after the liberation of the occupied Ukrainian territories. His defiant and stirring address to the nation was one for the history books. To the Russian occupiers and Moscow, he said this:

Do you still think that we are ‘one people?’ Do you still think you can scare us, break us, force us to make concessions? Did you really not understand anything? Don’t you understand who we are? What we stand for? What we are talking about?

Read my lips. If forced to choose between a comfortable life and freedom, Ukrainians would always choose the latter. Without gas or without you? Without you. Without light or without you? Without you. Without water or without you? Without you. Without food or without you? Without you. Cold, hunger, darkness and thirst are not as frightening and deadly for us as your ‘friendship and brotherhood.’ But history will put everything in its place. And we will have gas, light, water and food .. and WITHOUT you!