Biden Is Smiling, And Trump Is Pissed

Why the president has reason for optimism, and the former president is so angry about what happened in New Hampshire

Photos: Drew Angerer / Getty Images

It should have been Donald Trump’s big night in New Hampshire. Instead, it was Joe Biden’s.

There’s no question that Trump defeated Nikki Haley by a sizable margin—around 11 points. 

But instead of conceding defeat, Haley sounded defiant and vowed to press on, while Trump seemed more angry than celebratory. “Who the hell was the imposter who went up on the stage before, and like, claimed a victory?” Trump said to supporters in New Hampshire. Then he added, “I don't get too angry. I get even.”

Meanwhile, Joe Biden didn’t even campaign in New Hampshire because its early primary was unsanctioned by the party. But through a grassroots effort, Biden still managed to defeat his nearest opponent through a write-in campaign. They’re still counting ballots, but it appears Biden won by over 40 percent, and his name wasn’t even on the ballot.

So why was Trump so dour and mean in spite of his victory, and why does the Biden campaign have reason to smile, apart from coasting to an easy victory over what’s-his-name from Minnesota? To understand, we need to take a closer look at the numbers behind the top line ones.

Trump didn’t destroy Haley

New Hampshire was an expectations game. As the primary date drew near, the question has never really been about whether Haley could actually pull off a win. It was more about badly she would lose, or if she could make a case for staying in the race.

MAGA had been boasting that Trump would pull off an Iowa-level victory, where his nearest rival placed 30 points behind. And most polls had Haley losing by the high teens. So this was supposed to be an embarrassing blowout and a coronation of Donald Trump. Haley was supposed to concede, bow out and kiss Trump’s ring like every other contender.

Instead, a high number of independents turned out for Haley. According to CNN exit polls, while Trump backers were 70 percent registered Republicans, the opposite was true of Haley voters: 70 percent of them were registered as “undeclared.” That means Haley took around 30 percent of Republicans and 70 percent of independent voters—and that could spell significant trouble for Trump in the general election. 

But I want to be clear. There is zero doubt that Trump remains in the driver’s seat when it comes to the GOP itself, especially with this kind of high level of support. Trump prevailed across every age group and demographic, winning both men and women. Among the hard core GOP, he is king, no question. And Haley has got to be disappointed that she didn’t do better, considering how much money, time and resources she poured into the state. 

But Trump’s failure to bring more moderate voters over to his side might provide Haley with an incentive to stay in the race, at least until the next delegate battle in her home state of South Carolina. After all, if Trump were to suddenly stumble because of cognitive issues (they are noticeably worse than before), or because the Supreme Court surprises everyone and disqualifies him from the Colorado ballot, or faces a health scare, Haley will have made her case that she can win a general election by attracting more moderate voters to her side. That might prove critical in case Trump is jettisoned for any reason.

Haley refusing to concede also means that the RNC can’t combine its efforts and funds with the Trump campaign, because technically there is still a primary race with two contenders.

Trump and Haley voters live in two different worlds

One striking number to come out of the exit polling is how many Trump primary voters still believe The Big Lie—and how many Haley voters reject it. When asked the question, “Do you think Biden legitimately won in 2020?” the responses were telling:

AMONG TRUMP VOTERS

Yes:             17%

No:              80%

AMONG HALEY VOTERS

Yes:             83%

No:              15%

Another notable divide centers around Trump’s possible criminal convictions. When asked in an CBS News poll, “Is Trump fit to be president if he’s convicted?” 50 percent said “Yes” but 47 percent said “No.” Among Haley voters, a whopping 85 percent said “No”—with the numbers pretty much reversed for Trump voters.

A similar exit poll by NBC News found a 52/44 spread between “Yes” and “No,” indicating that the CBS exit poll was no fluke. (I make a clear distinction, by the way, between exit polls and telephone polls, with the former being far more useful and accurate.)

These numbers support the argument that the election could be deeply impacted by a criminal trial and conviction of Trump in D.C. this summer, should the trial proceed in time. For most independent voters, voting for a criminally convicted felon is simply a bridge too far.

Biden had a good night

Think about how hard it is to win a campaign when you’re not even on the ballot and your supporters have to write your name in. Add to that the fact that you couldn’t show up to campaign because it’s not an officially sanctioned primary.

All that, and Biden still won by over 40 points. It’s barely making the news, of course, because it’s not considered very exciting or compelling compared to the rage and antics of Trump. I had to scroll pretty far down in the New York Times coverage online to even find mention of this win. 

Since many mainstream news outlets aren’t bothering, let me spell out what this means. First, it puts to rest claims that there isn’t a solid wellspring of support for Biden. Second, it reveals how futile and laughable the whole primary “challenge” has been. One contender, convinced by bad polling data and some greedy consultants playing to his ego, spent millions of dollars and gave up a safe House seat to run, all because he believed the nonsense that Biden will lose handily to Trump. 

The results, along with recent public mental lapses by Trump, have begun to shift the press narrative from “Biden’s in big trouble” to “Trump’s in big trouble.” After all, there are great economic numbers out lately, with consumer confidence racking up double digit gains and the stock market hitting new record highs. Meanwhile, Trump looks increasingly disoriented and vulnerable, with his toxic and hateful brand of extremism playing to few outside his existing base.

That base wasn’t enough to win the election in 2020, and all he has done since is alienate more voters, even as millions of his staunchest supporters age out or die, while millions of younger, far more Democratic-leaning and progressive voters age into the voting pool. 

Biden is also smiling because Trump now has two state wins behind him. Trump’s nomination by the GOP is therefore all but certain, even if he later runs into big problems with criminal convictions and cognitive or physical decline. That will help Biden sharpen his message. 

As the grim reality dawns across America that we really will see a Biden-Trump rematch in November and have to go through all of this again, Biden will be there to remind us why we voted for him before. He’s the sane, boring, effective leader that got us through Covid, brought us out of recession into a strong economy, and held our alliances strong through war and against other grave threats from our enemies. 

Most importantly, Biden isn’t the other guy who, on top of all the things that were very wrong with him last time, has since staged a coup attempt to stay in power, stolen top secret national security documents, been found guilty of sexual assault by a jury, and pledged to be a dictator on Day One, to name just a few.

Haley’s voters are now telling us clearly. They don’t want that guy.