Bridges Too Far

The Trump White House is going out too far and could collapse its own fascist agenda.

Image courtesy of The Daily Beast

Over the weekend, in response to nationwide outrage over the brutal murder of Renee Good by an ICE agent, the Trump regime did not back down. It doubled down instead.

On the one hand, we could view the ICE surges, insane saber rattling at our own allies, and brazen attacks upon respected civil servants like Federal Reserve Board Chair Jerome Powell as part of a growing tide of fascism. And we wouldn’t be wrong. None of this is something a functioning democracy should tolerate, and all of it is intended to terrify, destabilize and control.

On the other hand, we could and should view these escalations for what they are: the fever pitch we have long expected. The walls are closing in on Trump, and he finds himself increasingly cornered. As I wrote recently, we should judge every new move by Trump by whether it signifies some new expansion of his power, or whether it falls within his ever-shrinking zone of actual authority. By this measure, Trump continues to signal notable weakness, not strength.

That pattern is now unmistakable. The White House escalates, but the public and the opposition do not back down. That will ultimately force Trump to commit even more outrageous acts. Eventually, and across multiple gaps, these acts will prove bridges too far. Whether it’s brutal ICE crackdowns, threats against our allies, or now the baseless criminal prosecution of Powell, each will accelerate erosion of public support and compound losses at the ballot box.

When the fever crests, our Republic will face its most critical test: do we collapse into outright fascism, or can we rid ourselves of the Trump infection and move decisively to restore our democracy? We are fortunate that Trump’s moves are increasingly desperate, unhinged and without any clear strategy. It means the chance we can avoid the former outcome and achieve the latter rises with each day.

Dictating before consolidating

The White House has committed a fundamental mistake. Would-be fascist regimes generally understand that, before they can successfully deploy mind-bending state propaganda and unleash actual storm troopers on the people, the regime must consolidate power. That means at a minimum controlling the airwaves and the internet, local and state governments, the police, the military, the legislature and the courts.

The Trump regime has made inroads into each of these, but mostly at the margins rather than at the core. There are significant sources of information, state power and authority that remain wholly uncaptured and independent.

Against this backdrop, the Trump regime surged some 2,000 armed, undertrained and right-wing militia-affiliated ICE and CBP agents into the blue enclave of Minneapolis. The result was predictable pushback and, tragically, predictable deadly violence. Renee Good has now become a martyr to the cause, her service and ultimate sacrifice far more powerful in death than they were in her gentle and compassionate life.

The White House doesn’t know what to do with this. Nor does it truly understand the depth of loathing and fury now directed toward it and its jackbooted thugs. So it responded the only way it knows how.

Over the weekend, Trump justified Good’s murder on grounds she was “disrespectful” to federal law enforcement. His propagandists fanned out to deny what we all saw with our own eyes. The regime surged even more federal agents to Minneapolis, where in response to protests by thousands, and echoed in cities across the country, it staged a city-wide crackdown.

In videos posted on social media, ICE assaulted protestors, arrested citizens simply for filming them, and rammed civilian cars.

The problem for the White House is that we still live in a democracy, even if it is under grave assault from within. ICE as an agency was already facing an existential loss in public approval before this weekend. Around 52 percent of those surveyed disapprove of ICE, compared to 39 percent who approve. Among those who disapprove, 42 percent strongly disapprove. And some 40 percent now believe the entire agency should not just be reformed but abolished entirely. That’s up over 20 percent since the beginning of the year. Imagine that kind of disapproval against any other law enforcement agency.

The White House’s lack of control over the information ecosystem means those same videos of ICE abuses are circulating widely. Reporters are pushing back hard on the official narrative. Even Fox’s Sean Hannity couldn’t control the story after he foolishly asked a reporter to randomly interview a protester in Minneapolis, who then proceeded to shoot fire for two minutes straight.

The regime’s lack of control over local leaders, from Minneapolis to Philadelphia, means they can still speak out forcefully against ICE—and even threaten arrests of federal agents. This dynamic emboldens rather than weakens protestors, who understand that local authorities have their backs. Here’s the sheriff of Philadelphia putting ICE agents on notice:

The regime’s lack of control over the courts means federal judges are tossing out cases against detainees and building a record against authorities that other courts can cite.

And its lack of control over Congress means outspoken critics such as Sen. Chris Murphy can call for legislation to rein ICE in. He recently announced a three-point proposal that would require warrants for interior arrests, require CBP to remain at the border and not operate inland, and require ID and no masks during enforcement operations.

This next point is important because I often hear readers voice an understandable fear. What if Trump cancels the midterms?

Trump does not control the states, which will administer our federal elections in November. He therefore has no clear legal path to delaying or canceling the midterms, much as he would love to. Nor can he simply do it by decree and expect the federal courts to go along. And, as the Supreme Court recently made clear, he cannot just deploy the states’ national guards.

Moreover, while he could conceivably try to move federal troops into urban areas, the frontline races that will decide control of the House are spread out over dozens of largely suburban districts that cannot be effectively controlled through some massive show of force.

Trump knows his days of complete lack of accountability are numbered. That’s why he is moving as quickly as he can to try and consolidate power. But that plan, if it is any plan at all, contains the seeds of its own failure. As discussed above, the Trump regime has the plan completely backward. It must consolidate before it can dictate; it cannot dictate in some desperate move to consolidate.

Keep this in mind as we watch the regime violently flail around and turn even more of the electorate against it.

Kicking sand around his sandbox

We saw two more clear instances this weekend of the Trump regime’s faltering sense of control.

First, the White House issued new international threats against Greenland, which is, of course, an autonomous territory of our NATO ally, Denmark. As reported by The Guardian on Friday,

Donald Trump has doubled down on his threats to acquire Greenland, saying the US is “going to do something [there] whether they like it or not”.

Speaking at a meeting with oil and gas executives at the White House, the US president justified his comments by saying: “If we don’t do it, Russia or China will take over Greenland. And we’re not going to have Russia or China as a neighbor.”

He added: “So we’re going to be doing something with Greenland, either the nice way or the more difficult way.”

This is a mob boss talking, and everyone outside the cult sees and understands that.

Trump does not control NATO, but he still effectively claimed that NATO would be nothing without America. Its leaders fired back forcefully. Of particular note was Georgia Meloni of Italy, who herself is backed by far-right parties and ought normally to be a natural ally to Trump. She asked aloud, “So should we shut down your bases, cut trade, or storm McDonald’s?”

Trump also rattled more sabers in the Americas. He threatened to cut off all oil from Venezuela to Cuba and shared a post that joked about Marco Rubio being president of that country, adding, “Sounds good to me!”

He also posted a Wikipedia edit claiming he was “acting president of Venezuela.”

These threats and trolling posts should be viewed for what they are: Trump acting like Trump in the places where no one will stop him. But he does so at significant risk of alienating an important part of his own base: the America Firsters. Trump ran on promises of no new foreign wars, and instead he is talking about taking over whole countries and installing himself or his cronies like Rubio.

This is also not to say these threats and any moves against other countries are not also highly dangerous. Without a doubt, an attack upon Greenland would completely destroy the NATO alliance, much to the glee of Russia.

But here, too, there may truly be a limit to how far Trump can go and some bridges that the U.S. military itself won’t cross for Trump. Rep. Ted Lieu (D-CA) made this clear when he drew a line in the sand over any orders to attack Greenland, warning everyone from the top of the chain of command on down that such orders would be illegal and presumptively are not to be obeyed:

The second bridge too far for many came last night, when Federal Reserve Board chair Jerome Powell issued a public condemnation of the regime for bringing a criminal case against him.

His prosecution is an obvious pretext for his refusal to blindly obey Trump on interest rates. Said Powell, “This new threat is not about my testimony last June or about the renovation of the Federal Reserve buildings. The threat of criminal charges is a consequence of the Federal Reserve setting interest rates based on our best assessment of what will serve the public, rather than following the preferences of the President.”

Key GOP lawmakers are already pushing back. Declared Sen. Thom Tillis (R-NC),

If there were any remaining doubt whether advisers within the Trump Administration are actively pushing to end the independence of the Federal Reserve, there should now be none. It is now the independence and credibility of the Department of Justice that are in question.

I will oppose the confirmation of any nominee for the Fed—including the upcoming Fed Chair vacancy—until this legal matter is fully resolved.

The walls are closing in on Trump

Trump’s popularity is sinking, and his own party is beginning to rebel. If you don’t believe that, remember that Republicans have now joined Democrats in forcing an astonishing three discharge petitions through the House. That is not the record of a party in control.

Whether it’s the Epstein files, the faltering economy, or SCOTUS’s 6-3 ruling against his illegal orders on federal troop deployments and its likely kneecap of his tariffs under his many “national emergency” decrees, Trump’s grip on power is slipping quickly.

His response has been to try to grip all the harder, with ICE surges, threats on the world, and ever wilder politicized prosecutions. But at the risk of quoting Star Wars, this simply means even more is now slipping through his small little fingers.

Please don’t get me wrong. Exactly none of this means 2026 is going to get any easier. In fact, we should expect things to get much worse in the coming months as the regime tries to seize quickly what a more strategic cabal would have gathered far more slowly and methodically.

But please also take heart in what we are seeing. The White House is acting predictably, going out on bridges too far, before they will hold safely. It is building things up to its own spectacular collapse.

If we do our work, November 2026 will mark a turning point for our country. All eyes on that prize, all gas no brakes.