Could We Finally Ditch Ted Cruz?

A tightening of polls and a drubbing by Rep. Colin Allred in last night’s debate have Democrats hoping the once long shot race could flip their way.

Photo: Shelby Tauber for the Texas Tribune

All eyes are on the Texas Senate race as recent polls show Congressman Colin Allred closing in on incumbent senator Ted Cruz. While most polls still have Cruz up by 3-4 points, recent internal GOP polling showed a dead heat, with Cruz up by just one.

That’s drawn the attention of national Democrats and some consternation from the GOP. With a tough Senate map this year, Democrats could offset a loss in Montana or Ohio with a pick-up in Texas and still hang onto the Senate majority. As a bonus, the nation would finally be rid of one of the worst, most disliked people in government.

Things came to a head last night as the candidates faced off in their first and likely only debate before Election Day. The session was both fiery and substantive, drawing a sharp contrast between the policies and priorities of the two candidates. Indeed, their battle is something of a microcosm of the political tensions gripping the nation, with two vastly different visions for what Texas, and the U.S., should be on questions of abortion, immigration, democracy and rights.

In today’s piece, I’ll take a deeper dive into why the polling has got both parties watching this race so closely. I’ll also highlight a few moments from the debate that demonstrate how Cruz continues to be vulnerable, even in a state where Trump is expected to prevail.

The state of the polls has the GOP worried

Usual caveats first. The polls may be off either way, and the race is already within the margin of error. Cruz could be ahead by much more, or Allred could be leading slightly. 

That said, as I often remind readers here, it’s more important to see how far the polls have moved over time, indicating both momentum and the possibility that the race could tip to Allred by Election Day, especially with many voters still undecided. The absolute values may be off, but movement is valuable to study.

Back in December of 2023, Sen. Cruz led consistently in the polling, even by double digits in many surveys. A University of Texas poll taken that month had Cruz over Allred by a whopping 16 points. It was easy to see why many did not give Allred much of a chance at the time. 

During 2024, Allred was able to introduce himself to Texas voters statewide, and his favorables began to trend higher than Cruz’s. That same University of Texas poll that was +16 for Cruz in December was +14 by February, then +13 in April, +11 in June, and +8 in August. 

Allred’s message was getting through, and Cruz’s lead was slipping.

To be fair, most polling averages still have Cruz ahead. But a recently released GOP Senate Leadership Fund memo, which used the GOP’s internal polling, had Cruz’s lead over Allred diminishing from three points in mid-September to just one point by October. As Politico reported,

“Beginning in early August, Colin Allred has been heavily outspending Ted Cruz,” the memo reads. But outside GOP groups have been trying to close that gap. The memo teases fresh GOP polling in the state that the group will have next week.

Democrats sense opportunity in Texas because of Cruz’s unpopularity and SLF’s numbers reflect that. Cruz’s favorability is above water by just 1 point at 49/48 while Allred’s is up 12 points at 48/36. Meanwhile, Allred is running 2 points ahead of Harris while Cruz is running 2 points behind Trump.

This isn’t some outlier result. Back in September, a Morning Consult poll of 2,716 likely voters showed Allred narrowly leading Cruz. And Allred has been pounding that point home ever since, sounding like the former football star he is.

“For the first time in this race, a new poll has us leading Ted Cruz by 1 point. I don’t know about y’all but I’m fired up and ready to WIN! We've got 47 days, let’s do this Texas,” Allred urged in a tweet.

While most polling averages still have Cruz beating Allred, the movement in the polls tells us that Allred could still win over persuadable voters in these final weeks. After all, he already closed the initial polling gap by 10-12 points. And with as many as 11 percent of voters still considered undecided, Allred could pull off an big upset. 

Election analysts are taking note. In early October, Cook Political moved the race from “likely” to “lean” Republican. And the U.S. Senate Democrats announced in late September that they would go on the offensive and make a multimillion dollar investment into Allred’s campaign to fund TV ads.

Allred knocked Cruz about in the debate on Tuesday

Last night was the first and only debate between the two candidates, and it didn’t go very well for Cruz. 

Allred tore into him on the issue where Cruz is considered most vulnerable: abortion. The night actually began with a direct question to Cruz about his stance, putting him immediately on the defensive. Even when repeatedly asked, Cruz avoided answering whether he supported Texas’s draconian six-week abortion ban, which has zero exceptions for rape or incest.

You can see him getting called out on his non-answers and avoidance of the question by the moderators around the 3:20 mark and the 5:10 mark:

Rather than respond, Cruz made a case for “states’ rights” around abortion.  “You wouldn’t expect Texas’s laws to be the same as California,” Cruz said. 

Allred shot back. “Senator Cruz just called himself pro-life — you’re not,” Allred responded. “It’s not pro-life to deny women care so long that they can’t have children anymore. It’s not pro-life to force a victim of rape to carry their rapist’s baby.”

The six-week ban in Texas is extremely unpopular among voters. If there is any issue that could tip the election to Allred, it is the destruction of the right to abortion. In Texas, some 26,000 women have already faced the fact that, under state law, they would be required after the sixth week to carry their rapist’s baby to term. Of course, many women would not even be aware that they were pregnant by this deadline.

Allred also jabbed at Cruz over his infamous vacation to Cancun, which Cruz took in the middle of a massive power outage in Texas during freezing temperatures. Allred’s clear message here? That Cruz is fundamentally unreliable.

He also raised another strong negative for Cruz around his seeking to overturn the results of the 2020 election. Calling Cruz a “threat to democracy,” Allred recalled how he, as a Congressmember, had to locate a gas mask under his seat and prepare to defend the House chamber from an attack by the mob. But what about Ted Cruz?

“At the same time he’d gone around the country lying about the election, after he’d been the architect to try and overthrow that election, when that mob came, Senator Cruz was hiding in a supply closet.” 

Cruz hit back with ugly rhetoric, attempting to tie Allred to Kamala Harris over her supposed policy of “open borders” for migrants. He repeated a false conspiracy that Democrats are trying to admit millions of immigrants and grant them citizenship for the sake of elections. “That would turn Texas blue,” Cruz warned. He promised to “fight to keep Texas Texas,” a not-so-subtle racist dogwhistle.

He also accused Allred of (checks notes) wanting military bases to have drag shows and fly transgender flags over them. This was in reference to Allred’s vote against an anti-trans GOP bill, cynically titled the “Protection of Women and Girls in Sports Act of 2023.” That bill sought to cut off federal funds from any athletic program that allowed “men” (determined solely by reproductive biology and genetics at birth) to compete in women’s or girls’ sports.

Cruz has been running ads attacking Allred on trans rights, as if that were the thing most voters care about at this moment in our history. Allred responded that Cruz is trying to distract the public. “He wants you thinking about kids in bathrooms so you’re not thinking about women in hospitals.”

No doubt to appease conservatives and to understandable dismay of trans rights advocates, Allred emphasized that he does not believe boys should play in girls’ sports. But he labeled Cruz’s attacks a desperate “Hail Mary,” and argued that it was laughable to think Cruz really wants to protect women, given his appalling stance on abortion.

“What I think is that folks should not be discriminated against,” Allred said. “What Senator Cruz should try to explain to you is why he thinks they should.”

Tuesday’s debate was held at Dallas’s ABC affiliate station, WFAA. The station held a real-time poll of 40,000 viewers watching on the YouTube livestream. And while by no means scientific, it is notable that of the 25,000 viewers who responded, Allred won the debate by a whopping two to one, 67 to 33 percent.