Impeachment Didn’t End in Conviction. But It Did Ignite an Inferno within the GOP.

Maybe this was Pelosi’s and Schumer’s Plan All Along

The impeachment of Donald Trump may not have ended in the conviction many wanted, but there is already a strong political upside to the strategy Nancy Pelosi and Chuck Schumer pursued. Within the GOP, both members and leaders alike were forced to make a stark decision: stand by the former president or condemn him. And that choice, forced upon them by the Democrats, is already brewing a civil war.

Photo Credit: Andrew Harnik / AP

The clearest example of this is Mitch McConnell’s rather surprising condemnation of Trump just after voting to acquit him, and Trump’s wholly unsurprising scathing statement in response. Other well known instances include the numerous state GOP parties’ censures of Republican House members and senators who voted to impeach or convict Trump. From Liz Cheney to Richard Burr, these moves were not merely symbolic; the divisions will play out brutally in local races. Indeed, the impeachment vote appears to have carved the Trumpian line-in-the-sand far deeper, and it is fast becoming a canyon where candidates now stand on opposing sides as they prepare for the 2022 election.

In Pennsylvania, as expected, Senator Toomey was blasted by MAGA supporters for his vote to convict their leader. Toomey brushed it off, however, largely because he has already announced his retirement. But his open seat is now a prize sought by both extremists and moderates within the party. Things have already turned very ugly and personal, with Trump loyalists and GOP moderates trading barbs via the press.

Following Toomey’s censures, Rep. Ryan Costello, a moderate Republican and long-time Trump critic who is eyeing a bid for Toomey’s seat, publicly came to his defense. In response, former Trump aides announced that they were planning a public relations campaign against Costello, aiming to take on “people trying to follow in [Toomey’s] form” in the party. 

Costello hit back, saying, “They can say whatever they’d like, it won’t bother me. It might help my fundraising, to be honest with you.” Indeed, the Republican Accountability Project, a nationwide anti-Trump group within the GOP, is already mounting a campaign to support Costello in the primary.

Trump aide Steve Bannon, recently pardoned by the ex-president, also weighed in to make it clear Trump will be heavily involved in the primaries. “Any candidate who wants to win in Pennsylvania in 2022 must be full Trump MAGA,” he warned. And in an ugly turn laced with anti-Semitism, he added, “Never Trumper Ryan Costello is a sellout to the globalists.” 

Trump’s former communications adviser for strategy, Greg Manz, added, “It would be foolish for any statewide candidate seeking the Pennsylvania GOP’s endorsement to accept Senator Toomey’s endorsement or donations from him.” On Costello’s bid, Manz said, “I imagine a feckless hack like Ryan Costello would gladly align himself with Senator Toomey, but he won’t even place in the Senate primary. He’s a non-factor ultimately.”

Costello replied to both. "Sloppy Steve will say whatever he's told [because] he's forever indebted for his pardon." And as for Manz: “Before [he] worked for Trump, he worked at the state party. Everyone back then and before used to make fun of him [because] he’s a clown. No one respects him and a few years from now, he will probably be pumping gas in New Jersey. No one knows who he is. He just does what he’s told like the little errand boy he is.”

A similar nasty battle is playing out in Ohio, where retiring senator Rob Portman’s seat is up for grabs. Campaigning within a far redder state than Pennsylvania, Ohio party leaders are one-upping each other to show just how loyal they are to Trump. They are also keen to prove how far away they have moved from traditional conservatism, as personified by the former governor, John Kasich, who unsuccessfully ran against Trump in 2016 for the Republican nomination.

Former GOP state party chair Jane Timken, for example, claims she is a “conservative disruptor” who helped sweep out moderate allies of Kasich. “I’m running for the United States Senate to stand up for you, just like when I stood next to President Trump and supported his America First agenda,” Timken said in her launch video.

Beating his own MAGA breast, former Ohio State Treasurer Josh Mendel also vowed that he would “fight for President Trump’s America First agenda.” Ominously, Mandel also gave an interview to an NBC News affiliate repeating the Big Lie begun by Trump that the 2020 election was stolen.

The race to prove who is the most anti-Kasich is a turn that would have been inconceivable in Ohio just four years ago. For example, Tamkin’s opponents have seized on the fact that, despite claiming she swept out Kasich’s allies, she actually endorsed Kasich in 2016. Within moments after announcing her candidacy, Timkin’s rival Mandel tweeted out a picture of Timkin and Kasich embracing.

A GOP already this divided, not only between MAGA extremists and traditional conservatives but also among Trump loyalists eager to show they have the best MAGA bona fides, is likely to create a highly expensive and highly damaging primary. This risks turning off moderate Republicans, who only four years ago held to Kasich-style conservatism as both practical and good. Trump himself remains deeply unpopular among independents, even more so since the January 6 insurrection, meaning any candidate who is fully aligned with him will carry a great deal of baggage in the general.

Seen in this light, the impeachment and trial have served a key goal of exposing the fissures already within the GOP. McConnell’s attempt to play to both sides of the party failed, and the gap is now widening. It’s easy to imagine Pelosi and Schumer sitting back comfortably to watch the battle royale they began play out.