Is Trump Losing the Catholics?

His numbers with Catholic voters have been sliding for months. Now the GOP faces a midterm map where disaffected Catholic voters may prove decisive.

Photo courtesy of the Chicago Sun-Times

There’s a question I haven’t seen answered yet.

We all know by now that Trump attacked Pope Leo XIV on Easter Sunday, posted an AI image of himself as Jesus, and spent the week watching Catholic bishops, cardinals, and lay leaders—including conservatives who voted for him—express their dismay in the some of the bluntest terms to date.

But what will this cost Trump and his party at the ballot box? Will Catholics choose religious principles over MAGA politics? And if we do see Catholic support for Trump erode, where specifically could this affect the electoral math?

How worried should Republicans be about losing the Catholics heading into the November midterms?

It turns out that the answers are not only more concrete but more damaging than the GOP would like to admit publicly.

The drift was already underway

By January of this year, weeks before Operation Epic Fury, and months before Trump’s Easter meltdown, Catholic support for Trump was already eroding. Pew Research data showed his approval among white Catholics had slipped seven points from the start of his second term. Among Hispanic Catholics, the drop was even steeper, falling eight points.

Two months can change a great deal. A Fox poll conducted in late March pushed his overall Catholic approval below 50 percent for the first time, with a lopsided 40 percent saying they strongly disapprove, a critical signal of how deeply dissatisfaction now runs.

John White, professor emeritus of politics at The Catholic University of America, put it bluntly: Trump’s 2024 coalition is “now in tatters, and Catholics are no exception.”

Pew’s senior researcher Gregory A. Smith told OSV News, a Catholic news and information service, that the change had taken place “over the course of the year, rather than recently or rapidly.” In other words, this was not a reaction to a single bad week. Immigration enforcement, tariffs, cost of living, the steady drumbeat of norm-breaking—all of it had been steadily building.

But unhappiness over the Iran war, with its consequences at the pump, now appears to have further accelerated the trend. And Trump’s Easter Sunday attacks on the Pope may have broken something that was already badly cracked.

To be clear, Catholic erosion is part of a broader pattern. Pew’s January 2026 survey found approval down across virtually every religious group — evangelicals, mainline Protestants, and Catholics alike.

But unlike evangelicals, Catholics are a genuine swing bloc—still Republican-leaning but with real room to move, unlike groups firmly in the Democratic column. And they are concentrated in precisely the suburban battleground districts and states where even a three- to five-point shift could prove decisive.

We can now add a specific and ongoing institutional pressure that no other group faces: a public spat between a warmongering president and an American pope with sky-high approval ratings among Catholic Republicans.

Pope Leo ain’t no Pope Francis

To be clear, Trump has attacked popes before, which may explain his willingness to take on Pope Leo. He and Pope Francis clashed for years. But Trump’s attacks on Leo carry far more political risk.

To understand why, we need to rewind to Francis’s papacy. Conservative American Catholics had their own grievances with the Vatican during this time. Francis was Argentine, identified as theologically liberal, and had tangled with Republican bishops over climate, LGBTQ+ inclusion and immigration for more than a decade. By the end of his papacy, Gallup found only 42 percent of American conservatives viewed Pope Francis favorably. For Trump, that meant attacking Francis came with limited political cost because much of the MAGA Catholic base had already cooled on him.

Pope Leo is a different proposition. Last September, Pew Research surveyed American Catholics and found 84 percent held a favorable view of the new pope. Among Catholic Republicans specifically, that number was also 84 percent, far higher than the 69 percent who still viewed Pope Francis favorably in his final months. Leo enters this fight with Trump with a reserve of goodwill among conservative Catholics that Francis simply did not have.

When Leo was elected last May, a significant segment of Catholic Republicans hoped he would take the Church in a different direction than Francis had led it. Pew found that 18 percent of Catholic Republicans believed Leo would be different from Francis and saw that as a good thing. That may sound small, but it’s still more than double the share of Catholic Democrats who felt the same way.

But that wasn’t to be. Leo has been just as outspoken as Francis on immigration and war, and in some ways more direct. He is simply harder to dismiss, because he is one of their own, and Trump 2.0 on immigration and war is significantly to the right of Trump 1.0.

Professor White captures what makes this psychologically distinct from the Francis years. Pope Leo’s “strong and blunt statements about the war,” White told EWTN News, formerly the Catholic News Agency, create “a higher level of cognitive dissonance among Catholics who support Trump but are hearing the words of the pope.” For some, he said, that dissonance will shift opinions. Maybe not for all, but for a good number.

David Gibson, director of Fordham University’s Center on Religion and Culture, framed the stakes even more starkly. While many Catholics have been standing by Trump and criticizing their own bishops for speaking out, eventually they will be faced with “choosing a Catholic-baiting president over their own pope.” That could sit uneasily for many, particularly those already unhappy with the job Trump is doing and the way he is actively insulting Pope Leo.

Gibson observed, “American presidents and American Catholics have disagreed with popes in the past. But this is disrespect. Disrespect is way different than disagreement, and that’s the danger for Trump here.”

Where the Catholic vote really counts

Catholics make up roughly one in five voters nationally. But that national figure obscures their true electoral weight. Catholics are a true swing voting group and are heavily concentrated in the battlegrounds that will decide 2026.

New York and New Jersey, two states where nearly a third of all residents are Catholic, account for six competitive House seats between them. In New York, Cook Political Report rates Rep. Mike Lawler’s Hudson Valley seat (NY-17) a true toss-up, having moved from “lean Republican” in November 2025. Meanwhile, three Democratic incumbents (Reps. Laura Gillen (NY-4), Tom Suozzi (NY-3) and Josh Riley (NY-19)) hold seats rated “lean Democratic,” leading both parties to play offense in the state.

In New Jersey, Cook Political rates Rep. Tom Kean Jr.’s NJ-7 race a toss-up (also having moved from “lean Republican” in November 2025) and is a top Democratic target. Meanwhile, NJ-9, held by freshman Democrat Rep. Nellie Pou, remains a top Republican target and is both on the DCCC’s initial Frontline list and the NRCC’s initial target list for the 2026 cycle.

That’s six seats in play, in just two blue states, where Catholic voters make up an outsized share of the electorate and where even a modest shift in that bloc could hand Democrats the House majority.

Zoom out and the picture grows even clearer. A Newsweek analysis mapped Catholic population data against competitive race ratings across the full 2026 battlefield and found the overlap striking. Pennsylvania (21.8 percent Catholic) has three vulnerable Republican-held seats and Wisconsin (21 percent Catholic) has one of the most competitive districts in the country. In the Senate, Michigan, Maine, Ohio, Georgia, and North Carolina all have tight races where the Catholic vote could prove decisive.

Among the demographic fault lines within Catholic voting, none may matter more in suburban swing districts than gender. An EWTN/RealClear poll conducted last November, when Trump still held majority Catholic support, already showed 62 percent of male Catholic voters viewing him favorably compared with only 45 percent of female Catholic voters. Catholic women are more likely to live in the suburban districts that flip House seats, more likely to cite the Church’s social teaching on care for the vulnerable as a political priority, and, as the same poll showed, less likely than men to rank deportations as a top priority.

No subsequent poll has broken down Catholic approval of Trump by gender, but the overall Catholic approval numbers have dropped sharply since that November 2025 poll, and broader polling consistently shows women moving away from Trump faster than men. The Catholic gender gap—already baked in before Iran and the pope fight—has likely widened.

There is also the Hispanic Catholic dimension. PRRI data from February showed Hispanic Catholic favorability toward Trump at just 25 percent, down from a high of 37 percent in September 2024. That collapse—driven by immigration enforcement, economic anxiety, and now an ugly war the Church has explicitly condemned—has direct implications for competitive districts in Texas, New Jersey and New York, where Latino Catholics comprise a significant share of the electorate.

Deeper than one bad weekend

There is growing friction between Trump’s governing agenda and basic Catholic social teaching. And it cuts across nearly every major policy area, not just the Iran war.

On April 12, three of the most senior Catholic cardinals in the United States — Cardinal Robert McElroy of Washington, Cardinal Blase Cupich of Chicago, and Cardinal Joseph Tobin of Newark—sat down together on 60 Minutes to address the war and immigration enforcement, in a rare joint interview. Their joint appearance was itself a statement; the last time the U.S. Conference of Catholic Bishops issued a special unified message criticizing a sitting president’s policy was more than a decade ago.

Cardinal McElroy framed the Church’s “just war” argument in terms that left little room for interpretation. “The Catholic faith teaches us there are certain prerequisites for a just war,” he said. “You can’t go for a variety of different aims. You have to have a focused aim, which is to restore justice and restore peace. That’s it.” He acknowledged Iran’s government as “an abominable regime” that “should be removed” — and then said plainly that “this is a war of choice that we went into.” In a separate homily, McElroy said each of the administration’s policy failures in Iran “is equally a moral failure which under Catholic ‘just war’ principles renders both the initiation of this war and any continuation of it morally illegitimate.”

Cardinal Cupich took aim at something more specific: the White House’s social media presentation of the war, which has included videos splicing together clips from Top Gun, Braveheart, and video games like Grand Theft Auto with actual combat footage. “We’re dehumanizing the victims of war,” Cupich told 60 Minutes, “by turning the suffering of people and the killing of children and our own soldiers into entertainment.” He called it “sickening.” The congregation at his Washington peace Mass responded with several minutes of applause.

On immigration, the tensions are just as stark. The U.S. Conference of Catholic Bishops issued a rare unified rebuke last November denouncing the administration’s “indiscriminate mass deportation of people.” That statement was approved by more than 95 percent of voting bishops. Pope Leo then urged Americans to heed the bishops’ message. Cardinal Tobin of Newark, also on 60 Minutes, called ICE a “lawless organization” when agents “have to hide their identities to terrify people” and violate constitutional guarantees.

Then there is the economic disconnect. When EWTN and RealClear polled Catholic voters last November and asked which Trump campaign promise mattered most, 40 percent said reducing inflation, by far outpacing every other issue. Only 15 percent named deportations. Catholics voted for economic relief, but it’s not at all what they got. As affordability grows ever more out of reach, driven in part by the war of choice the Church has now condemned, these economic voters may angrily vote their pocketbooks in 2026, just as many did in 2024.

Pope over president?

Kathleen Sprows Cummings, a professor of American Studies and History at Notre Dame, offered the long view on Trump’s fight with the pontiff: “Emperors, monarchs, and despots have long threatened popes in an effort to force them to bend to their will,” she said. “In an American context, however, Trump’s invective does represent a historic reversal.”

And David Gibson’s question raised earlier—will Catholics choose the pope or the president?—now looms large, especially going into the fall campaign. In 2024, Trump won Catholic voters by 12 points. That margin is now underwater in national polling, and the dioceses that matter most to the midterm map are in the states where the Senate and House majorities will be decided.

The November answer remains uncertain. But the question has never been more open.