It’s Manipulation, Plain and Simple

The flood of GOP polls in the battleground states was expected. Don’t let them get to you.

Our office is closed today, so I don’t have my regular installment today. But I did want to amplify something I posted yesterday on social media which gained some traction and which perhaps a lot more people need to hear today.

Trump needs us to believe the race is close, not only because it will help him claim election fraud later, but because a close race gives a permission structure for people who are still undecided to excuse the worst of Trump’s attributes. After all, everyone else is still supporting him, right?

Here’s what I wrote, with some images added to help make my point.

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Why is the GOP flooding us with so many partisan polls to make it seem like the race is far better for Trump than it is? What’s the point of all that?

Many of you have answered that question yourselves already without realizing it, just by wondering aloud, “Why is the race tied?!”

You see, if people are led to believe it is tied, then it must also be true that half of America thinks it’s somehow okay to pick Trump, despite everything we know about him. It normalizes him. It tells us all that these horrific things don’t matter, and we begin to believe that because the polls are telling us so.

But the polls are bunk. The GOP knows from internal polling that Trump’s in trouble, and that they have to shore him up. That’s why they’re flooding us with partisan polls—60 GOP leaning ones, all paid for by Republicans and dropped into the mix recently, all in the battleground states.

Don’t buy into it. The majority of Americans believe Trump has disqualified himself in fundamental ways from a second term and will vote that way—IF we don’t collectively give into despair and normalize Trump’s fascism and hate. Weaponized polls are trying to demoralize us, but we can push back and call them out for it.

High quality, non-partisan polling show the race has really not moved in a month. It’s remarkably stable, and that is a key fact.

This is true in the battleground states as well as nationally. Harris has a narrow but discernible lead, and it’s likely bigger than the polls show.

So, deep breath. Their flood of polls is a sign of weakness and desperation. If we vote like we did in 2018, 2020, and 2022, we win.

I added in a comment to that post:

If the polls were consistently showing Trump is losing, then the media would have to explain why that is. It’s because he’s a terrible candidate: a felon, a sexual assaulter, a fascist, a racist, a misogynist, a blithering fool.

Instead they report that they are tied when they are not, and they report on his enduring strength with voters.

See how that works?

Today and tomorrow, I’m working on a substantive piece for The Big Picture substack, to be published Tuesday afternoon. It covers a bit more of the recent history of poll weaponization, what some experts are saying about why else it’s being deployed, and how it’s affecting the media and our national psyche. If you’d like to receive it in your inbox but aren’t yet subscribed to The Big Picture newsletter (which I write for once a week or so), you can do so here so you get my full analysis. It’s free, but of course we cherish and appreciate our voluntary paid supporters!

For now, understand that the GOP is manipulating the data, which is manipulating the media, which in turn is driving many people into bouts of anxiety. The race has not fundamentally changed in anyway. They’re trying to vibe shift it, and we should understand that. The antidote to this cynical ploy is action. Donate. Organize. Vote.

If we show up, we win.

Jay