MAGA Mike Johnson’s Poison Pill
The new Speaker of the House, Mike Johnson, known as “MAGA Mike” to both supporters and detractors, weighed in on the most pressing issue for the Congress and our national security: providing aid to our allies. But far from providing steady assurance or moving the aid along, his proposal is a slap in the face to Ukraine and plays politics with aid to Israel.
There are four things to understand:
First: The proposed package. The Biden Administration has pledged support to both Ukraine and Israel. Fearing that the GOP-controlled House, where there are many pro-Russia members, would seek to strip out Ukraine aid, the White House bundled the two together, along with aid for Taiwan and humanitarian aid for Gaza, in a $105+ billion proposal.
Second: The House response. Speaker Johnson balked at the combined package and instead proposed a stand-alone bill for Israel, leaving Ukraine out in the cold, at least for now. But with a government shut down looming on November 17th, Ukraine and its supporters fear the aid will get lost in the mix. Time is running out.
Third: The poison pill. This is a big sticking point. Speaker Johnson inserted a requirement that the $14.3 billion in aid for Israel come out of funding for the IRS. But that money, passed as part of the Inflation Reduction Act, funds tax enforcement and collection. Stripping it out would amount to an aid package for the wealthy. It’s a non-starter for Democrats.
Fourth: The Senate’s unity. In a rare moment of partisan agreement, both Republican and Democratic leadership in the Senate have voiced support for the White House proposal. Minority Leader Mitch McConnell warned that the threats facing Israel and Ukraine are “intertwined” and we must deal with them together.
Let’s take a closer look at each of these.
The proposed package
To understand why the White House has bundled the aid package, we need to understand two constraints: politics and time, which often go hand in hand.
When former Speaker McCarthy was running out of time to keep the government open, he finally caved and proposed a “continuing resolution” (CR) that kicked the budget can down the road to November 17. Much of his own party wanted to stand firm and shut everything down in protest over government spending, so McCarthy, now humiliated, had to go to the Democrats for votes. But as a nod to the extremists and pro-Russian voices in his party, who don’t want to see continued aid to Ukraine, McCarthy stripped that aid out. Democrats didn’t like that one bit, but rather than face a shutdown, they went along with the CR. McCarthy’s cooperation with the Democrats to pass it so angered the far right that he lost on a motion to vacate and was ousted as Speaker shortly thereafter. And that still left the question of Ukraine aid for later.
That later is now. Democrats learned through that experience that if Republicans see a chance to take Ukraine aid off the table, they will take it and even hold the entire federal government hostage if they have to. Meanwhile, the White House wants to get Ukraine aid done for the balance of the congressional term, acknowledging that trying to get more of it passed during an election year in 2024 would be very difficult.
That’s why the White House, with a nod from Senate Republicans, packaged all of the foreign aid to our allies together in a single bundle. Aid to Israel is very popular and urgent, even among House Republicans, where the majority of that conference supports it. By tying the two together, it would force Republicans to accept both or neither—a gamble the White House believes it can win.
The House response
A few days ago, Speaker Johnson suggested that he preferred a stand-alone bill for Israel, and that aid for Ukraine was less urgent and could therefore wait, alarming many supporters of Ukraine in its war against Russia.
“We’re going to move a stand-alone Israel funding bill this week in the House — I know our colleagues, our Republican colleagues in the Senate, have a similar measure,” Johnson said during an interview on Fox’s Sunday Morning Futures, adding his belief that there will be bipartisan support. “There are lots of things going on around the world that we have to address, and we will,” Johnson said. “But right now, what’s happening in Israel takes the immediate attention, and I think we’ve got to separate that and get it through.”
At the same time, Johnson has sounded a bit hawkish compared to many of his pro-Russia colleagues in the House. Johnson said to Fox’s Sean Hannity last Thursday, “Now, we can’t allow Vladimir Putin to prevail in Ukraine, because I don’t believe it would stop there, and it would probably encourage and empower China to perhaps make a move on Taiwan. We have these concerns. We’re not going to abandon them.”
But if Johnson’s actions are to be given greater weight than his words, we are on a collision course not just over Ukraine aid but even over aid for Israel.
The Poison Pill
When Johnson’s proposed bill emerged, providing the requested $14 some billion in aid for Israel—but as a stand-alone bill that would force the government to strip that same amount out of already approved and passed funding for the IRS—Democrats were livid.
“The House GOP bill is woefully inadequate and has the hard right’s fingerprints all over it,” declared Majority Leader Chuck Schumer.
Long time congressional watchers raised eyebrows at the proposal, not only because it was clearly DOA in the Senate, but because it gave Democrats an easy talking point that exposes Johnson’s real priorities and his cynicism. To them, it also reflected Johnson’s inexperience and his continued need to cater to the far right extremists in the party.
“It’s insulting that the hard right is openly trying to exploit the crisis in Israel to try and reward the ultra rich,” said Schumer. “The new speaker knows perfectly well that if you want to support Israel, you can’t propose legislation that is full of poison pills.”
The IRS funding offset would wind up adding to the deficit, according to the Congressional Budget Office, because enforcement funding results in revenue many times the amount spent. That’s because wealthy tax cheats account for the bulk of money that would be recovered through additional funding.
The White House also took aim at the proposal, citing Johnson’s violation of norms when it came to national security. “Demanding offsets for meeting core national security needs of the United States—like supporting Israel and defending Ukraine from atrocities and Russian imperialism—would be a break with the normal, bipartisan process and could have devastating implications for our safety and alliances in the years ahead,” White House press secretary Karine Jean-Pierre said in a statement.
“Threatening to undermine American national security unless House Republicans can help the wealthy and big corporations cheat on their taxes—which would increase the deficit—is the definition of backwards,” she wrote.
The measure proposed by Johnson will go to a House floor vote later this week, where its future is uncertain. Some far-right members of the House, including Reps. Marjorie Taylor Greene (R-GA) and Thomas Massie (R-KY) said they would not vote for aid to Israel, so Johnson can afford to lose very few more, assuming nearly all Democrats vote against the bill. Johnson may be betting he can pick up at least some Democratic votes because they won’t want to have to explain to their constituents why they voted against aid to Israel.
The Senate’s unity
Johnson’s move is a rebuke to Senate Republicans, led by Minority Leader Mitch McConnell, who want to see aid to all our allies passed. Some Republicans want to also see more border security included in the package, which could lead to some changes, but by and large Republicans and Democrats in the Senate form a rare united bloc of support.
That unity comes after compelling testimony by Secretary of State Antony Blinken and Secretary of Defense Lloyd Austin, who appeared before the Senate Appropriations Committee on Tuesday and made a strong case for aid to our allies at war, for humanitarian aid for Gaza, and for deterrent aid to Taiwan.
At a speech in his home state at the University of Louisville, Senator McConnell introduced the Ukrainian ambassador and laid out the need to win the war against Russia. McConnell emphasized the larger threat to peace everywhere as he made the case for the aid package:
If Russia prevails, there’s no question that Putin’s appetite for empire will extend to NATO, raising the threat to the U.S. transatlantic alliance and the risk of war for America. Such an outcome would demand greater permanent deployment of our military force in Europe, a much greater cost than the support we have provided to Ukraine. And of course, Russian victory would embolden Putin’s growing alliance with fellow authoritarian regimes in Iran and China.
So this is not just a test for Ukraine. It’s a test for the United States and the free world.
And the path toward greater security for all of us is simple: Help Ukraine win the war.
Speaker Johnson will now face some tough tests as he tries to muscle his own weaker, poison-pill laden proposal through. It must first pass the House, where its fate is unclear. Then it will face the Senate version, which not only aligns with the White House’s request but has the backing of Republican leadership there.
The new Speaker will be trying to flex without any relevant experience negotiating with the Senate or the White House, on a bill that the majority of his own party does not support, and where traditionally the parties have refused to play this kind of politics. Will he let our allies and our national security pay the price of his own party’s dysfunction and disunity?
If Johnson doubles down, he will have to spend much of his political capital and “honeymoon” period trying to win over Republican members, senators and voters. That’s not a strong way to start. And if he digs in too deep, any later surrender may prove devastating to his reputation to get important and even widely popular things done.
As President Biden likes to remark, “Good luck in your senior year.”
Democrats voting against the poison pill bill will have to get out ahead of oppo messaging very early. "Yes, I voted against this dangerous, bad-faith bill. When the ill-preprared, inexperienced Speaker has a bill that actually addresses Israel's needs along with those of our other threatened allies, of course it will have my enthusiastic Yes vote."
From what I read, the additional funding for the IRS is already bringing in more than three times its cost to date. For once I agree with McConnell (never thought I’d say that, I can’t stand the man), that aid to Ukraine now to help them defeat Putin’s war of aggression is money well spent if it stops Putin from expanding his attempt at empire-building into NATO countries.