New York Can Tip the Balance in the House Through a Partisan Gerrymander. Will It Do It?

The failure of the bipartisan, independent commission to come up with a single map could throw the process back the to the Democratic-controlled legislature.

Proposed Map by Democrats

Democrats have been wringing their hands over the loss of blue House seats due to reapportionment from the Census, followed inevitably by gerrymandering in states controlled by the GOP. This will further erode the Democrats’ chances of holding a slim majority in the House, with some estimates ranging to up to 13 new gerrymandered districts advantaging Republican candidates in 2022—a considerable finger on an already tipped scale, given Democrats can afford to lose only five seats.

That’s why the news out of New York yesterday grabbed the attention of so many strategists. New York is supposed to draw district lines by way of an independent, bipartisan redistricting commission made up of ten individuals. But the commission was unable to reach the seven votes needed to produce a proposed map, forcing it to release two different maps for public commentary, one drawn up by Democrats and the other by Republicans on the commission. 

Jack Martins, the commission’s vice chair and a former GOP state senator, said negotiations on reconciling the pair of maps fell apart over the weekend. His colleague, Commissioner Charles Nesbitt who is a former GOP minority leader in the assembly, appeared resigned. “I’m going to go ahead and support putting forward two maps because we don’t really have a choice at this point, but I think it should not be a precedent,” Nesbitt lamented.

The commissioners do agree on one thing: Because New York lost a seat due to reapportionment, something had to give. In both maps, a large northern district that lost population appears collapsed. But according to the New York Times, Republicans want to redraw district lines so that Democratic incumbents are pitted against one another, and Democrats want to displace Republican incumbents in the Western and central parts of the state while supporting Hudson Valley Democratic incumbents. The Democratic proposed map appears to give a pick-up opportunity on Long Island and makes the Staten Island seat competitive by including parts of Coney Island, a Democratic region.

Proposed Map by Republicans

The quirk here is that if the commission isn’t able to produce a map by the January 2022 deadline, then the legislature, which is controlled by Democratic supermajorities, can step in to determine the final maps. Were that to happen—and some analysts are already saying the two maps as proposed are dead on arrival—New York could conceivably draw up to five more seats that could go to the Democrats, counterbalancing expected gerrymanders in Texas, Georgia and Florida. 

Critics warn that this could set off an arms race of sorts, with the GOP going full tilt on its own redistricting to gain maximum advantage. But there is a limit to what Republicans can accomplish. Somewhat ironically, the gerrymanders that occurred in places like Texas after the 2010 cycle were so severe that the math is proving difficult for the GOP to squeeze that many more seats out of their maps, particularly given that the growth came largely in Democratic urban areas and among ethnic minorities. If Republicans press too hard and enter into de facto racial gerrymandering, they could run afoul of the Voting Rights Act which, while gutted in many ways, still protects majority-minority districts and ensures some minority representation from them.

Without a credible threat of massive GOP gerrymander reprisals because the damage was already done years ago, that leaves Democrats with essentially a moral quandary: Should they now do the very thing that they accuse the GOP of doing? It would mean the state of New York could emerge with as many of 23 of the 26 House seats in Democratic hands, a tantalizing haul that may be hard for Democrats to resist seizing. “New York might be the biggest redistricting weapon for either party in the country,” said Dave Wasserman, an elections analyst with the Cook Political Report.

It appears that New York is poised to proceed with the blessing of the new governor, Kathy Hochul, a former House member who lost her seat after the last redistricting cycle. She has signaled she has no qualms about using the party’s sway in New York to extend Democratic power in Washington. Asked whether she would use her influence to help Democrats expand the House majority through the redistricting process, Hochul responded, “Yes. I am also the leader of the New York State Democratic Party. I embrace that. I have a responsibility to lead this party, as well as the government.”

The threat out of New York comes just as senators in D.C. prepare to take up debate on the new Freedom to Vote Act, which now has the support of swing senator Joe Manchin. The bill ostensibly would ban partisan gerrymandering, something that New York just demonstrated is difficult to achieve at the state level. No one besides perhaps Manchin believes that 10 GOP senators exist who will back the voting bill to overcome a filibuster, but outrage over its blockage could provide the political cover Democrats need to strike back with all they have. And with widespread calls for Democrats not to unilaterally disarm in the face of GOP assaults on democracy, look for this question of Democratic gerrymandering to take on national significance very soon.