President Biden Delivers Another Historic Surprise

Photo courtesy of ABC News.

As we mark this Presidents Day holiday, it’s fitting that our current president Joe Biden paid a surprise, historic visit to stand beside another president, Ukraine’s Volodymyr Zelenskyy. The trip was unannounced and kept under tight press embargo, as it carried many security risks. Even as the two men strolled together on a sunny day in downtown Kyiv along the Wall of Remembrance, where 4,500 soldiers are commemorated for their ultimate sacrifices since Russia first illegally seized Crimea and instigated a rebellion in the eastern provinces nine years ago, an air raid alarm wailed. It was a grim reminder that the nation is still under daily attack from its imperialist, aggressive neighbor.

Biden proclaimed, “As we approach the anniversary of Russia’s brutal invasion of Ukraine, I'm in Kyiv today to meet with President Zelenskyy and reaffirm our unwavering commitment to Ukraine’s democracy, sovereignty, and territorial integrity. When Putin launched his invasion nearly one year ago, he thought Ukraine was weak and the West was divided.  He thought he could outlast us. But he was dead wrong.”

U.S. presidents traditionally have visited war zones, including during the Iraq and Afghanistan wars, so in a broader sense it isn’t unusual for Biden to do so now. Still, those conflicts did not directly involve a nuclear armed enemy superpower capable of and willing to strike civilian targets from great distances, so in that sense Biden’s visit is both more dangerous and raises higher international stakes. As the anniversary of the full-scale invasion of Ukraine by Russia approaches, the symbolism and message of Biden’s trip carries important geopolitical significance. Let’s unpack some of the key takeaways.

A message to the Ukrainian people

The people of Ukraine understand the historic nature and deep symbolism of the visit. This is the first time President Biden has ventured personally into the danger zone of the conflict, and for good reason. The Pentagon and the Secret Service reportedly did not want the visit to happen given the continuing barrage of missile fire and ongoing threat to safety, and instead they presented the White House with plans to have Zelenskyy meet him at the Polish border, or perhaps even in the Ukrainian city of Lviv on the Western edge of the nation. A trip to Kyiv would present a logistical and security nightmare, comprising a ten hour train ride from the Polish border, five hours inside the capital itself, and then a return journey. Nevertheless, the White House insisted on the trip, with a final decision made Friday during an Oval Office huddle, capping off months of top secret planning. 

Biden’s brazen move has heartened the Ukrainian people at a time where they are increasingly concerned they will be forgotten by their Western allies and written off by nations tired of the high fuel and food prices resulting from the war. President Zelenskyy proclaimed that the visit was “Historic. Timely. Brave.” He added he was “thankful to the U.S. for standing with Ukraine and for our strong partnership.” 

Illia Ponomarenko, an acclaimed defense reporter for the Kyiv Independent, could scarcely contain his excitement. “This is what historic figures do. In hard times, they take the leadership and overcome, instead of just drifting with the tide and rolling over,” he tweeted. “A gargantuan middle finger in Putin’s face,” he observed with pride.

A warning to Putin

With the approach of the one year anniversary of what Putin disingenuously and has long insisted was just a “special military operation” in Ukraine, the Russian president is facing increasing skepticism at home and within his military ranks. The status of the war will be the subject of a separate piece later this week, but suffice it presently to observe that not only did Putin’s initial invasion collapse disastrously, but his Plan B to seize and control the eastern oblasts of Ukraine is not going as hoped. Russia is short on armaments and supplies and is enduring massive casualties. International sanctions are squeezing its economy with increasing effectiveness as it runs up huge deficits to finance the war. Its oil sales revenues have cratered. Putin desperately needs a breakthrough or victory to take back to his people.

Instead, on Monday what he got was President Biden chiding him. “He thought he could outlast us,” Biden said, speaking of the Russian president. “I don’t think he is thinking that now.” Biden’s pledge during his visit of another half-billion dollars in U.S. assistance—for shells, howitzers, anti-tank missiles and air surveillance radars—on top of the $50 billion already pledged was a stark reminder that the West will continue to resupply Ukraine with weapons even as Russia continues to run out of them.

Russia appeared ready to send a message of its own. Cognizant of the risks the trip entailed, Washington informed Moscow of the move just as Biden departed the U.S. in an effort to avoid any actions that might escalate tensions. But this apparently didn’t stop the Russians from launching a MiG-31 fighter jet into the skies from Belarus to the north during Biden’s five hour tour of the Ukrainian capital. The fighter was equipped with a Kinzhal hypersonic missile that Ukranian air defenses aren’t able to shoot down, and its deployment prompted the air raid alarm during Biden’s visit.

The China factor

While the U.S. and its allies keep up the pressure on Russia, U.S. diplomats are warning China not to increase its involvement by way of military assistance to Russia. U.S. Secretary of State Antony Blinken recently warned Beijing not to supply Moscow with weaponry or face “serious consequences.” Blinken spoke to the press after meeting with China’s top foreign policy official, Wang Yi, on Saturday and expressed “deep concerns” about the “possibility that China will provide lethal material support to Russia.” China essentially responded that the U.S. should buzz off: “We do not accept the United States’ finger-pointing on China-Russian relations, let alone coercion or pressure,” quipped a spokesman for China’s foreign ministry.

Russia is rapidly losing the ability to equip and resupply its failing military, so it has turned to other nations in an attempt to fill the gap. Russia’s use of Iranian-made drones already has led to serious damage inflicted upon Ukraine’s infrastructure, but cooperation with China on weapons supply would mark a dangerous new escalation and complication to the war.

A high stake chess game is evolving. During Biden’s visit, Wang Yi arrived in Moscow at the end of his diplomatic tour of Europe. It isn’t clear if Putin will meet directly with Wang, but U.S. officials are watching closely. Tensions are already running at historic highs with China after the U.S. shot down a Chinese spy balloon that floated over the country for days, setting off panic and recriminations by Republicans that Biden was weak on China. Biden’s visit to Ukraine, along with Secretary of State Blinken’s warnings, are intended to make the U.S. position on the war and China’s potential further involvement clear, but they also risk pushing China closer to Russia just as the invading forces plan a large scale springtime offensive in the eastern part of the country. Keeping China on the sidelines through unified Western resolve and the threat of sanctions will be key to wearing Russia down and bringing about an earlier end to the war.

A war with the West or a fight for democracy?

Russian propagandists attempted to spin Biden’s visit as evidence that the war in Ukraine is really part of an international conflict with NATO and the West, and that Zelenskyy is merely a puppet of Washington. “The Americans are being forced to come to the forefront and position themselves as fighting this war,” opined one analyst on Russia’s state-run Channel One. “He has no choice but to do this.”

From the U.S. standpoint, however, Russian aggression in Ukraine presents a direct threat to peace and stability throughout the world. Biden reiterated that the U.S. will continue to stand by Ukraine however long it takes in order to protect freedom and democracy against armed aggression. Recalling the “dark night” nearly a year ago when Russian tanks crossed the border into Ukraine and its fighters took to the skies, Biden reminded Putin of his failure. “One year later, Kyiv stands,” Biden said. “And Ukraine stands. Democracy stands.”