So Is Jordan Going to Win? How Bad Is That?

Jim Jordan huddles with allies. Photo: Win McNamee / Getty Images

Prognosticating with a conference as chaotic and unruly as the GOP is definitely more art than science, and certainly more division than addition. The question on everyone’s minds today, as the House gathers once again for a roll-call vote for a new Speaker, is simple: Does Jim Jordan have the numbers?

I don’t believe he does. At least, not yet. In fact, there’s a possibility that he has managed to alienate even more members since yesterday. That means the group of 20 GOP members who voted for someone other than their own party’s nominee could grow rather than shrink their numbers. And that would be very bad news for Jordan.

Today, we’ll first cover what happened yesterday after the disappointing showing on the House floor and how Jordan may have managed to make things even tougher for himself. Then we’ll look more closely at the 20 holdouts and form some assessments about their politics to understand what Jordan may have to concede to win them over. 

And surprisingly, if he actually does concede those things, I’ll go out on a limb to argue that a Jim Jordan speakership might wind up being no worse than what we had under Kevin McCarthy, at least in terms of what does and does not get done. As a bonus, it would give Democrats an amazing punching bag for next fall’s national election, meaning that by electing Jordan as Speaker, Republicans would probably kiss their majority goodbye.

Bullying Backfires

On Monday, I wrote about how, over the weekend, Jordan’s allies in Congress, online and at Fox (namely, Sean Hannity) applied high pressure tactics to coerce the 55 members who had voted against Jordan to switch their votes in favor. And it worked, but not quite enough.

The result is that the remaining 20 holdouts are among those most miffed and dug-in as a consequence of the bullying and badgering. Some conservative allies of Jordan are now admitting that the tactic may have gone too far.

“I’ve talked to a couple of members where they felt that—that’s just not what they needed,” said Rep. Byron Donalds (R-FL), an outspoken and rare Black member of the GOP. “I think some of the pressure campaigns have backfired. They have not worked.”

It hasn’t helped that Jordan decided to pick a fight with the very person whose help he needs the most. The Daily Beast reported that Jordan had wanted Rep. Steve Scalise (R-LA) to be the member who symbolically nominated him for Wednesday’s second round of balloting. Jordan figured that that would show the holdouts that even Scalise was on board. And that could cause the seven protest votes that went to Scalise to swing Jordan’s way.

But for unknown reasons, Scalise did not reach agreement on the nomination, and things allegedly grew to a spat which was then leaked to The Daily Caller, a conservative rag. That the spat was reported amounts to exactly the opposite signal—that perhaps Scalise supporters should remain Scalise supporters. 

One source even believed that the whole ordeal would likely lead to more Scalise allies voting against Jordan on Wednesday. It would be a disaster for Jordan if the momentum were seen as moving in the wrong direction on the second vote.

The bullying and the spat together may have imperiled any chance for Jordan to get to 217 votes during the second round. “Attacking members and laying the blame anywhere but your own feet when you’re 20 votes down shows you don’t know the first thing about bridging divides,” said a senior GOP aide. “This is 2013 Jim Jordan all over again and it shows he’s not mature enough to lead the conference.” (If you recall, in 2013, Jordan led a failed shutdown of the government over Obamacare.)

Even former Speaker Newt Gingrich is pessimistic about Jordan’s chances on Wednesday.  He spoke with members of the House Tuesday evening and came away with the impression that Jordan would not produce more votes in the second round. 

“My sense from talking to people in the House tonight in the next vote, he might actually get fewer—not more—votes,” Gingrich said to Sean Hannity on Fox. “If that happens, we can’t sit around and suck our thumbs and hope the world will wait until the House Republicans get their act together.”

Know your no’s

It’s useful to look at who voted against Jordan to understand whether they are likely to flip toward him, if not in this second round, then in subsequent rounds should Jordan attempt to persist. Here are some groupings worth noting.

Group One: Appropriations Committee members. There’s a subset of “no” votes who are all on the committee that decides on budgetary matters. They are worried that Jordan will shut down the government or demand across-the-board cuts that are contrary to what was agreed to earlier between McCarthy and Biden. In exchange for their support, they may require that Jordan agree to their budget demands, putting him at odds with the far right of his conference. (This is the same quagmire that sunk McCarthy.)

Group Two: Ukraine aid supporters. Nearly all of the holdouts are proponents of more aid to Ukraine. A few sit on the Armed Services Committee. Jordan is staunchly anti-Ukraine aid, and these members know it. To win their support, Jordan may have to agree to put a Ukraine funding bill in some form to a floor vote, where it would likely pass. This will piss off the House’s far-right Putin fan club, just as it would have infuriated them had McCarthy done it.

Group Three: Republicans in vulnerable districts. A big chunk of the opposition comes from GOP members who sit in districts won by Joe Biden in 2020. If they support Jim Jordan for Speaker, their reelection chances will take a big hit. Here’s an interesting infographic on how GOP member support breaks down for Jordan:

Unlike the holdouts against former Speaker McCarthy, the political ideology of the holdouts (the black dots in the graph), with the exception of Rep. Ken Buck (R-CO), is mid to less conservative than the average, while being heavily represented in Biden-leaning or toss-up House districts. Four of these members are from New York and may be holding out for offers from Jordan that might improve their reelection chances, such as pulling back on the Biden impeachment inquiry and putting the brakes on extremist legislation, such as national bans on the abortion pill or on medical care for trans teens.

Concession regression

Were the holdouts to dig in and demand concessions in exchange for their support, much as the hardliners did with McCarthy, Jordan may find himself sounding and acting, well, a lot like McCarthy. Would he agree to work with the existing budget deal hammered out by his predecessor? That might get the appropriations people on board. Would he agree to Ukraine funding? That could pull a few more over. 

Would he stop beating the extremist drum? 

Well, on that last part, I wouldn’t hold my breath. Jordan is the face of MAGA extremism, and the base would expect regular red meat cultural battles from him, in return for which he could amass donations and fundraise for his conference. 

What might then unfold, should Jordan ultimately concede his way into power just as McCarthy had to, is a curious scenario. Jordan must do the budget deal more or less as the Senate wants or face a government shutdown (which didn’t go well for him last time he led one). And he may have to allow a vote on Ukraine aid, perhaps tied to Israel aid, despite his personal opposition and the howls of members like Rep. Marjorie Taylor Greene (Q-GA). 

If the holdouts don’t manage to wring these basic concessions from him, they aren’t very skilled politicians. And looking at the list, my bet is that they will get what they want. After all, it appears that Jordan picked up support from key Midwestern holdouts from the last vote by indicating he would be open to putting a new farm bill on the floor, despite personally and strongly opposing such a bill earlier. So it’s already clear that Jordan is willing to negotiate and make concessions, and the staffers of the holdouts are surely taking notes.

Such concessions would take care of the two biggest issues facing the country in the aftermath of the GOP chaos and loss of its first speaker: finalizing a budget deal and supporting our allies with billions in new aid. 

But what would that leave the House to do?

The answer is plain: make more noise and pass more bills that go exactly nowhere. Jordan has already shown he is incompetent when it comes to holding hearings, trying to run interference for Trump on his criminal cases, and going after targets like Hunter Biden. And if the GOP makes him the face of their party for 2024, the ads really do write themselves. 

After all, Jordan was one of Trump’s chief supporters who tried to overturn the election on January 6; the person at whom, as the rioters stormed the Capitol, Liz Cheney snapped, “Get away from me. You fucking did this.” 

He’s the one who discussed presidential pardons for his cohorts after the attack, who defied a congressional subpoena, and who can’t seem to remember a ten minute phone call he had with Trump the morning of the assault.

He’s the one who voted consistently against PACT and other critical veteran benefits bills.

He’s the one who pressed for a national abortion ban, including a 25-year prison sentence for users of abortion medication to end their pregnancies. 

And he’s the one who ignored crimes of sexual assault occurring on his watch while he was the assistant wrestling coach for Ohio State University. If he is elected Speaker, it would be the second GOP House Speaker in as many decades embroiled in a wrestling molestation scandal, after former GOP Speaker Dennis Hastert was sentenced to 15 months for abusing boys while he was a wrestling coach. 

I’d say what are the chances, but apparently they are nearly 100 percent with this group.

In sum, if Jordan pulls off a miracle through massive concessions to the “moderates” in his party and gets to 217 votes, the GOP will have bought itself none of the solutions to what brought down McCarthy, will likely concede on the two most important issues for conservatives (blocking the budget and Ukrainian aid), and will set up an easy target for Democrats to vilify through next year.

Bottom line, either way it’s likely a political disaster for the GOP while the national interest will still press forward. If Jordan loses, we could see bipartisan support for expanding the powers of the speaker pro tempore, Rep. Patrick McHenry (R-NC), whom Democrats find acceptable in the moment. If Jordan wins after massive concessions, it will be ugly at first for all, but far uglier in the long run for the GOP.