So, The Racist Dogwhistler Or The Sexual Assault Enabler?

The top two contenders for McCarthy’s old job both come with baggage

Reps. Steve Scalise (R-LA) and Jim Jordan (R-OH), Getty Images, Politico via AP.

Factions within the GOP are beginning to coalesce around the two strongest contenders for the job of Speaker, now that McCarthy has made it clear he doesn’t want to try a 16th round of balloting. The first is the No. 2 in command, Rep. Steve Scalise (R-LA), and the second is the Chair of the House Judiciary Committee, Rep. Jim Jordan (R-OH).

Most on the left have heard plenty about the latter. Rep. Jordan is an aggressive, sneering, full-throated MAGA/Trump supporter who is all about hearings and impeachment of Joe Biden. And he comes with a lot of baggage, including allegations, which he denies, that he covered up sexual molestation for years at Ohio State University, where he was an assistant coach on the wrestling team.

If the name Steve Scalise rings a bell, it’s likely because you remember him being badly wounded by a crazed shooter at a congressional baseball practice session, and you may have heard that lately he’s in treatment for blood cancer. What folks may not remember is that he once claimed that he has no political baggage, describing himself to a political reporter as “David Duke without the baggage.” 

I’m sorry, Mr. Scalise, do you mean “grand wizard of the KKK” kind of baggage? Is the baggage for the hoods and cloaks? Congratulations.

Rep. Scalise also spoke to a gathering of white nationalists in 2002, but apologized for doing so in 2014. Perhaps he has “evolved,” but congratulations, Mr. Scalise, you now officially have baggage.

It may be depressing to consider that the two most likely choices for Speaker are either Gym Jordan or Steve Scalia, as I think of them. Yet here we are, so let’s take a look at these two cases with a more dispassionate gaze and see what they would likely mean for the Republican party and the country.

Both men are GOP “institutionalists” 

It should be no surprise that Rep. Scalise, as the No. 2 guy behind McCarthy, is considered the continuity candidate. Scalise is considered to the right of McCarthy, but his leadership and big-tent style of governing is well known to everyone in the Republican conference. He sent out a “Dear Colleague” letter touting those credentials.

“You know my leadership style I’ve displayed as your Majority Leader and Whip,” he wrote. “I have a proven track record of bringing together the diverse array of viewpoints within our Conference to build consensus where others thought it impossible.”

Rep. Jordan, despite his reputation as a firebrand from the House Freedom caucus, is also seen as one of McCarthy’s loyal lieutenants. He has been a reliable partisan for the GOP, using his role as Chair of the Judiciary Committee to attempt to disrupt various legal investigations into Trump. 

Many Democrats see Jordan as a political lightning rod that could shine a light into what is broken about the GOP. It would be much harder to come down on Scalise, in part because his frail health might give Democrats pause when it comes to criticizing him personally. (Now that his own immune system is deeply compromised by his cancer treatment, Scalise finally wears a mask to reduce the chance of a Covid or other infection.)

Both men are election denialists and are considered loyal to the ex-president, so the ascent of either would signal problems ahead for any kind of compromise with the Democrats, especially if Trump weighs in against it. This could prove difficult in the coming weeks, given the need for the House and Senate budget bills to be reconciled and passed in some 40 days.

Differences on Ukraine Aid

One of the biggest unresolved questions in the latest continuing resolution is over further aid to Ukraine. If the new Speaker is more aligned with Russia, that could stymie the desperately needed aid package, even if most members of Congress want to see it passed.

Jordan is staunchly anti-Ukraine aid. Referencing the proposed package, he said to CNN, “I'm against that.” He continued, “The most pressing issue on Americans’ mind is not Ukraine—it is the border situation, it’s crime on streets.”

Where Scalise stands isn’t wholly clear, but he did vote for Ukrainian aid on a recent up/down vote on the $300 million Ukraine Security Assistance Initiative bill that went to the floor last week. Jordan was a no vote on that.

It’s probably safe to say that the chances of aid to Ukraine being put into the budget would go down significantly more under Jordan than under Scalise, even if it is not guaranteed under Scalise. 

Rule changes and extreme priorities

It isn’t clear yet whether either leading candidate will demand that the rules of the GOP conference be changed as a condition for their speakership. One of the most closely watched rules is the one that got the party to this point in the first place: the threshold for the motion to vacate. Currently, it takes only one member to raise this as a privileged motion. 

Some moderates have already suggested that they would like to do away with the motion to vacate altogether, or at least raise the threshold so as not to be held hostage to the far right the way McCarthy was.

At the same time, several hardliners have already indicated that they won’t support a candidate who doesn’t provide assurances that far-right priorities, such as the border and deep discretionary spending cuts to the public safety net, will be enacted. Such a position would likely doom any talks with the Senate, however, and the government would face yet another shutdown threat come mid-November when the current continuing resolution to fund the government expires.

That has GOP members in moderate swing districts nervous. Take Rep. Marcus Molinaro (R-NY), who believes the party needs someone who can guide it through the 2024 elections.

“How do we get past the anger and anxiety we’ve had? How do we govern?” Molinaro asked. “What’s the vision moving forward, and how are you going to change? How are you going to do business in a way that bridges these divides?”

How indeed.