Sure, We’ve Got Manchin to Deal With. But They’re Stuck With Trump.
Over the weekend, Sen. Joe Manchin proved again he’s the spoiler of all Democratic victories after announcing he was a “no” on President Biden’s signature Build Back Better legislation, all but dooming it in its current form. It’s possible the Democrats in the Senate will regroup in January with something more pared down that Manchin can rebrand as his own (as he did with the Freedom to Vote Act after nixing the For the People Act), but we’ll have to wait and see. With all the collective anger, finger-pointing and I-told-you-so’s over the weekend, there’s one thought that can still brighten a Democrat’s day: While no one has to even pretend they like, admire or agree with Joe Manchin, at least he’s not Donald Trump.
Here’s what I mean by that. Currently, the specter of Trump looms over congressional Republican leadership and the midterm elections, and it’s easy to suffer political whiplash with the head-spinning about faces and sheer hypocrisies they have exhibited.
Take Minority Leader Mitch McConnell, who clearly has no great love for the former president but is still willing to bend over backward to accommodate him. After cynically leading his caucus to vote to acquit Trump on more or less a technicality in the second impeachment trial, McConnell surprised nearly everyone when he rose to excoriate him before the nation for his “disgraceful dereliction of duty”—a phrase recently and somewhat ominously echoed by Rep. Liz Cheney (R-WY) of the January 6 Committee.
But Sen. McConnell didn’t stop there: “There is no question, none, that President Trump is practically and morally responsible for provoking the events of that day," McConnell said. He then proceeded to blast Trump for a “crescendo of false statements, conspiracy theories, and reckless hyperbole” that was “orchestrated by an outgoing president who seemed determined to either overturn the voters’ decision or else torch our institutions on the way out.” He even suggested that Trump could face civil and/or criminal penalties as a result of his conduct.
Yet just weeks later, when asked on Fox News whether he would support President Trump if he won the GOP nomination for president in 2024, McConnell said, completely straight-faced, “Absolutely.”
If that feels like a big record scratch moment, you’re not alone. It captures nearly perfectly the dilemma the GOP is in: It needs Trump’s voters to continue to turn out so it can win elections, but that means it can’t alienate or provoke Trump too far. In short, McConnell and others are choosing deliberately to ride the tiger.
Trump hasn’t kept his disdain for McConnell secret. After McConnell declared the election in which Trump lost a free and fair one, Trump launched into him, calling him a “dour, sullen, and unsmiling political hack,” a “stone-cold loser” and a “dumb son-of-a-bitch.” And when the Bipartisan Infrastructure Framework passed with GOP support in the Senate, Trump laid into McConnell again, labeling him a “Broken Old Crow.”
Trump’s picks for Senate primaries are picking up on his bashing and starting to play the anti-McConnell card, too. His endorsed candidates in both Alaska and Missouri have publicly stated that they will not support McConnell for Majority Leader if they are elected from their states. While that’s an empty threat so long as there is no viable challenger, it shows that Trump intends to try and push McConnell from his leadership. In theory, it would only take a few GOP senators to keep him from power.
McConnell, for his part, recently lent support for the work that the January 6 Committee is doing. “It was a horrendous event, and I think what they are seeking to find out is something the public needs to know,” McConnell said in an interview. That certainly isn’t going to endear Trump to him going forward.
Things aren’t much better over in the House. Recall that Minority Leader Kevin McCarthy began the year with a famous shouting match with the former president, in which a furious McCarthy told Trump the January 6 rioters were breaking into his office through the windows. After Trump made a sneering comment about them being more upset about the election than he was, McCarthy yelled, “Who the fuck do you think you are talking to?”
But, like McConnell, it wasn’t long before McCarthy realized he needed to play nice with Trump or lose his support and the power of the MAGA base. He traveled to Mar-a-Lago just three weeks later to meet with Trump and reinforce the idea that they needed to work together on strategy. Rep. Liz Cheney was quick yet fairly alone among Republicans to condemn the visit. “We should not be embracing the former POTUS,” Cheney said.
McCarthy earned more ire from Trump when 13 of his Republican House members voted “yes” on the infrastructure bill, giving Nancy Pelosi a win even though some of her own progressive members had voted no. Some of Trump’s acolytes reportedly called for those 13 members to be stripped of their committees, and on cue the “yes” voting members began to receive menacing and threatening messages at their offices. “I hope you die,” one caller said, adding that he hoped everybody in his family died as well. Minority Leader McCarthy, ever the brave leader, declined to even comment on let alone condemn the threats.
On the other hand, to keep the tiger happy, McCarthy has had to offer his support to Freedom Caucus members like Reps. Paul Gosar and Marjorie Taylor Greene, who lost their committee assignments because of their threats of violence and incendiary comments about fellow House Members and the president. McCarthy no doubt worries that without their support, which comes at the pleasure of the former president, he may have trouble making the math work on his end: If the Republicans retake the House next November, as is broadly expected, he will still need 218 GOP votes to elect him Speaker. That prospect becomes dicey if a significant number of the 40 Freedom Caucus members decide to back someone more Trumpian.
The failure to rein in Trump has had real consequences electorally for the GOP already. Many fault Trump’s election fraud claims, and his lukewarm expressions of support for the GOP candidates, for having depressed MAGA turnout in the Georgia senate runoffs in January, leading to two losses there and a Democratic Majority Leader. As Trump’s hand-picked candidates ramp up their extremism, apparently in a race to the bottom to “own the libs,” this could result in several GOP primary winners who are simply too radical for the general election. Too much of that and the GOP House majority might fail to materialize.
McConnell and McCarthy are well aware of this danger, but so far there isn’t anything they can do about it. Their headache could grow into a an all-out GOP schism and existential conflict in 2022. So while Sen. Manchin maddeningly does play hardball yet ultimately wound up working with the Democratic leadership on things like judicial appointments, the American Rescue Plan, and the infrastructure bill—and may well still compromise on some aspects of Build Back Better—Trump is presently actively looking to destroy Mitch McConnell and may even move to replace Kevin McCarthy with someone more loyal and subservient.
Given a choice between these two nightmares, Democrats can take some comfort in the fact that while Manchin is without question infuriating and disloyal, they at least don’t have their own version of Trump.
I wish the more progressive TV news channels would stop giving him air time. And I wish someone would poll his constituents as to how they feel about his behavior. And I also want to know who he is working for that is filling his pockets. He is not a democrat!
Social safety nets aside, Manchin had already had some of the major climate change provisions taken out of the bill, and now insists that any attempt to wean us off fossil fuels is something he "can't support." (His financial interests in the coal industry are beside the point as utilities are running away from coal-fired plants for economic as well as environmental reasons and coal consumption will likely continue to decline, regardless). Even though the climate "sticks" were removed from BBB, most experts consider the "carrots" in there to be necessary to help nudge the country to be more aggressive in moving to clean energy sources. Manchin's assertions that this would "kill the electric grid" ignore that the grid would be improved under these provisions (and must be, anyway). People will continue to move to EVs (as the major automakers are), but tax incentives will encourage that and make it more possible for lower-income people to do so.
As noted, the social safety net provisions would substantially benefit his constituents, who are among the poorest in the nation. The complaints about "reliance on handouts" and encouragement of "laziness" sounds more Republican than Democratic, not to mention insulting to his constituents (not to mention just a tad racist-adjacent).