The three-judge panel included only ONE tRump appointee,so not particularly reflective of the entire court...but, a win is a win, we'll take it.
But, through all these lower-court losses by the regime, it calls to mind *tRump v United States*, where powerfully and cogently argued decisions by both District Judge Tanya Chutkan and the DCC seemed to totally forestall any SCOTUS mischief...WRONG! The reactionary majority just shat all over the lower-courts' decisions, and gave tRump "total immunity for 'official' acts"...IOW, he can do what he wants, particularly when appeals reach the Supremes — check his "wins" via the shadow docket.
So, it remains, IMHO, what actions by tRump are really considered "too much", even for the Court reactionaries...not holding my breath.
The problem with the tariffs is that Trump will simply declare a different emergency (national security, probably) as the reason for the tariffs.
Then if that reason is struck down, there will be another reason. Each has to be adjudicated; each restarts the process.
In the meantime, the admin will be working furiously to justify these emergency claims. Not because they believe there are actual emergencies, but because if they provide analyses to the courts justifying their claims of emergencies, those analyses must be argued over point-by-point, slowing things down yet further.
Trump is playing his favorite game: break the law, and gum up the works so that by the time the courts render a final decision, it's a fait accompli.
Appreciate your reasons for conditional optimism, Jay. I call myself (long before the Trump era) a conditional pessimist…I.e., not expecting a good result but willing to be surprised.
True, but don't you think that with a totally different rationale (national security instead of economic emergency), analysis and arguments have to restart?
My expectation:
1) Supremes agree with lower court and strike down tariffs. If they hear arguments, I actually expect 7-2 or 6-3. Roberts, Alito, Thomas in dissent. An awkward majority opinion trying to bridge two totally different rationales.
2) Trump announces he's doing the same tariffs but it's for national security
3) Immediate filing calling for injunctive relief. I'm sure they have it drafted already.
4) Due to venue shopping, immediate injunction. If it's not stayed by that judge, the appellate court immediately grants the stay.
5) Supremes let these tariffs stand, 5-4 or 6-3, party lines. The majority opinion points out that many of the tariffs appear unreasonable on national security grounds, but that they cannot possibly second-guess national security decisions - they don't have classified data, for one - so they have to let them stand, and this is for Congress to sort out (which they won't).
The tariffs are probably the issue most likely to backfire on Trump politically, so if he has the Justice Department tied up defending them over and over, maybe it diverts their energy from stuff that would harm the political process itself (elections, etc.).
The “lower courts” are, in my estimation, far superior: they’re the ones adhering to their oath to uphold the Constitution, and are more reasonable, fair and Constitutionally correct in their decisions than the current scotus.
I suppose all we can do is wait and see what line scotus will toe once these critical cases come up before them: fealty to toddler trump, the demented oligarch, or to the U.S. Constitution, the sacred document they swore to uphold.
Thank you, Jay, for the clear, legal, and both specific and broad perspective on this quagmire. And for giving us courage and hope!
Seems like the only way for the Supreme Court Federalist Society appointees to give anything at all to Trump is through the shadow docket and its temporary rulings.
Because to rule in favor of what he is doing in fully tried cases is usually going to lead to very anti-constitutionalist decisions. I have to think that at least a couple of them are still interested in how history views them.
Roberts used to care about the reputation of the Court. Since he ceded effective control to Thomas and Alito, there has been not much of a pretense of concern, hence the overuse of decisions without full records and opinions on the merits.
Roberts has never cared about the court’s reputation. He has only been about advancing the republican fascist agenda at any cost going back to when he became chief justice-
I'm sure the rank and file, not just a few of them first or second generation immigrants from Mexico, will be eager to go into Pilsen and break up Sunday picnics.
My guess, if they even show up at all, is that they'll use those big trash sticks to pick up litter from the Mexican Independence Day celebrations.
They are still under the command of Abbott, and he's as crazy as trump is. Maybe even crazier. If I sound furious - I am. I live in Illinois. They will deploy, and Governor Pritzker should deploy the Illinois NG in response.
Yes. My understanding is that the red state guards are NOT federalized, in a transparent attempt to skirt posse comitatus, and that also means red states are paying for them. In case it isn't clear, I'm posting from Texas, where I pay taxes.
I’m glad to see the judiciary stepping in more quickly; they seem to be the only ones who see the urgency in many of these cases. Since our GOP Congress/Senate is inexplicably totally behind everything trump does, we’ve got almost two years more of the rest of this. We obviously will need savvy lawyers standing up for us — like you, Jay!
Thank you for this perspective Jay. I can now see at least some trees in the vast dark forest. Keep shining the light and soon the gloom will abate and there will be beautiful trees everywhere.
And everyone, please send whatever prayers/positive energy/grace/love/thoughts/blessings you can to our judges. They are doing a lot of heavy lifting these days. Bless them. (Except that asshole guy in texas, Kacsmaryk. He can go straight to hell. And the sooner the better!)
Jay, that was a LOT of great news, and I’m here for it 👏 I hope, like you said, this and the testimony of the Epstein victims will start to blow this regime wide open and end it, before any more damage is done to us and the rest of the world!
I hope it's finally the thing that drives a stake through the orange man's heart. If there is one in there. I think the coming humiliation and ridicule will be inescapable, and will grease the wheels of his demise. Or Melania will leave him. Or both. But I would be happy with just the demise.
"The Justice Department is in disarray and demoralized, it has in some instances squandered the crucial “presumption of regularity” that is normally afforded to government functions, and the Trump regime is now losing the lion’s share of the most consequential lower court cases."
That's right - you cry "Wolf!" too often and eventually it will come back to bite you.
I keep hoping that Roberts and Leo Leopold , head of the Federalist Society who is now on the outs with Trump, will have a conversation about how they need to reign in MAGA. Since Trump will likely no longer be using the Federalist Society in choosing people to appoint to the bench, perhaps Roberts can start to issue decisions that will hem in some of the worst abuses of the regime. A girl can dream…..
I don't know how much more the American people can take ! The utter contempt that Taco Twat has for the rules of law , of even morality is unconscionable. Doesn't listen to the courts in fact openly defies them and mocks them then runs to the Unsupreme Court to get what he wants , everyone else be dawned! Does not take advice from any in congress and if they defy him just threatens them ! We are seeing that now with him over the release of the Epstein files ! Doesn't matter if you have the actual victims standing on the steps of the Whitehouse giving their statements to the media ,he will just say they are paid liers ! It never ends with him ! He is not fit both mentally and physically to be the President! I do not know why he hasn't been removed already . Is the regime going to start a Civil War! It is coming close to that . God help us all !
Wow Jay that's huge. The fifth circuit NEVER sides with the people and is corrupt. For them to decide against cheeto is incredible.
The three-judge panel included only ONE tRump appointee,so not particularly reflective of the entire court...but, a win is a win, we'll take it.
But, through all these lower-court losses by the regime, it calls to mind *tRump v United States*, where powerfully and cogently argued decisions by both District Judge Tanya Chutkan and the DCC seemed to totally forestall any SCOTUS mischief...WRONG! The reactionary majority just shat all over the lower-courts' decisions, and gave tRump "total immunity for 'official' acts"...IOW, he can do what he wants, particularly when appeals reach the Supremes — check his "wins" via the shadow docket.
So, it remains, IMHO, what actions by tRump are really considered "too much", even for the Court reactionaries...not holding my breath.
The Bush appointee joining the majority did surprise and delight me!
Better she than the rebarbative James Ho, with his non-stop auditioning for the next Supremes opening.
The problem with the tariffs is that Trump will simply declare a different emergency (national security, probably) as the reason for the tariffs.
Then if that reason is struck down, there will be another reason. Each has to be adjudicated; each restarts the process.
In the meantime, the admin will be working furiously to justify these emergency claims. Not because they believe there are actual emergencies, but because if they provide analyses to the courts justifying their claims of emergencies, those analyses must be argued over point-by-point, slowing things down yet further.
Trump is playing his favorite game: break the law, and gum up the works so that by the time the courts render a final decision, it's a fait accompli.
Enjoining new tariffs immediately would be easier if there’s a controlling precedent on point.
Appreciate your reasons for conditional optimism, Jay. I call myself (long before the Trump era) a conditional pessimist…I.e., not expecting a good result but willing to be surprised.
True, but don't you think that with a totally different rationale (national security instead of economic emergency), analysis and arguments have to restart?
My expectation:
1) Supremes agree with lower court and strike down tariffs. If they hear arguments, I actually expect 7-2 or 6-3. Roberts, Alito, Thomas in dissent. An awkward majority opinion trying to bridge two totally different rationales.
2) Trump announces he's doing the same tariffs but it's for national security
3) Immediate filing calling for injunctive relief. I'm sure they have it drafted already.
4) Due to venue shopping, immediate injunction. If it's not stayed by that judge, the appellate court immediately grants the stay.
5) Supremes let these tariffs stand, 5-4 or 6-3, party lines. The majority opinion points out that many of the tariffs appear unreasonable on national security grounds, but that they cannot possibly second-guess national security decisions - they don't have classified data, for one - so they have to let them stand, and this is for Congress to sort out (which they won't).
Gentleman's bet, anyone?
I trust you mean Alito, not Scalia, in your point 1 above?
Whoops yes, I don't expect him to come back from the dead to cast a vote, although I'm sure he would like to in this case.
Corrected above. Thanks!
The tariffs are probably the issue most likely to backfire on Trump politically, so if he has the Justice Department tied up defending them over and over, maybe it diverts their energy from stuff that would harm the political process itself (elections, etc.).
His other alternative on tariffs is Congress (it’s their job).
The “lower courts” are, in my estimation, far superior: they’re the ones adhering to their oath to uphold the Constitution, and are more reasonable, fair and Constitutionally correct in their decisions than the current scotus.
I suppose all we can do is wait and see what line scotus will toe once these critical cases come up before them: fealty to toddler trump, the demented oligarch, or to the U.S. Constitution, the sacred document they swore to uphold.
Thank you, Jay, for the clear, legal, and both specific and broad perspective on this quagmire. And for giving us courage and hope!
Good reality check.
Seems like the only way for the Supreme Court Federalist Society appointees to give anything at all to Trump is through the shadow docket and its temporary rulings.
Because to rule in favor of what he is doing in fully tried cases is usually going to lead to very anti-constitutionalist decisions. I have to think that at least a couple of them are still interested in how history views them.
Roberts used to care about the reputation of the Court. Since he ceded effective control to Thomas and Alito, there has been not much of a pretense of concern, hence the overuse of decisions without full records and opinions on the merits.
Roberts has never cared about the court’s reputation. He has only been about advancing the republican fascist agenda at any cost going back to when he became chief justice-
Exactly! He had to hide his true wolf in sheep's clothing agenda until all the elements of the long-planned fascist takeover were in place.
Thanks, Jay. I feel so discouraged now every day and it's great to get some positive news.
Me too
Great column today. Lots to bolster hope and confidence.
It seems the Texas National Guard is already stationed at the Great Lakes Naval Base in North Chicago. So this is getting serious.
It will again come down to the courts
I'm sure the rank and file, not just a few of them first or second generation immigrants from Mexico, will be eager to go into Pilsen and break up Sunday picnics.
My guess, if they even show up at all, is that they'll use those big trash sticks to pick up litter from the Mexican Independence Day celebrations.
They are still under the command of Abbott, and he's as crazy as trump is. Maybe even crazier. If I sound furious - I am. I live in Illinois. They will deploy, and Governor Pritzker should deploy the Illinois NG in response.
Abbott is a nutcase for sure. I lived there a few years. As the old saying goes, “I wasn't born in Texas, but I got out of there as fast as I could.”
I might have altered it a bit.
I’m worried too. And I live in Ca. I will pray DDT will back off sending troops. Scary times. 🙏🏽
Yes. My understanding is that the red state guards are NOT federalized, in a transparent attempt to skirt posse comitatus, and that also means red states are paying for them. In case it isn't clear, I'm posting from Texas, where I pay taxes.
Round them all up
I really hope the Governor deploys the Illinois National Guard to counter them.
Why would the Tx National Guard be doing at the Great Lakes navel base. That is weird. Definitely food for thought.
Sucking up to T.
Pretty soon they'll be picking up trash. And sleeping on a bare floor.
I’m glad to see the judiciary stepping in more quickly; they seem to be the only ones who see the urgency in many of these cases. Since our GOP Congress/Senate is inexplicably totally behind everything trump does, we’ve got almost two years more of the rest of this. We obviously will need savvy lawyers standing up for us — like you, Jay!
He'll be dead by then. But who knows what fresh hell will replace him?
Thank you for this perspective Jay. I can now see at least some trees in the vast dark forest. Keep shining the light and soon the gloom will abate and there will be beautiful trees everywhere.
And everyone, please send whatever prayers/positive energy/grace/love/thoughts/blessings you can to our judges. They are doing a lot of heavy lifting these days. Bless them. (Except that asshole guy in texas, Kacsmaryk. He can go straight to hell. And the sooner the better!)
Thank you for your voice of reason which is definitely substantiated by facts!
Jay, that was a LOT of great news, and I’m here for it 👏 I hope, like you said, this and the testimony of the Epstein victims will start to blow this regime wide open and end it, before any more damage is done to us and the rest of the world!
I hope it's finally the thing that drives a stake through the orange man's heart. If there is one in there. I think the coming humiliation and ridicule will be inescapable, and will grease the wheels of his demise. Or Melania will leave him. Or both. But I would be happy with just the demise.
Today, Jay takes a couple of thoughts that I've had about Trump ignoring court orders and injunctions, and throws them back in my face.
And that's a GOOD thing.
"The Justice Department is in disarray and demoralized, it has in some instances squandered the crucial “presumption of regularity” that is normally afforded to government functions, and the Trump regime is now losing the lion’s share of the most consequential lower court cases."
That's right - you cry "Wolf!" too often and eventually it will come back to bite you.
I keep hoping that Roberts and Leo Leopold , head of the Federalist Society who is now on the outs with Trump, will have a conversation about how they need to reign in MAGA. Since Trump will likely no longer be using the Federalist Society in choosing people to appoint to the bench, perhaps Roberts can start to issue decisions that will hem in some of the worst abuses of the regime. A girl can dream…..
An encouraging report. Thanks.
I don't know how much more the American people can take ! The utter contempt that Taco Twat has for the rules of law , of even morality is unconscionable. Doesn't listen to the courts in fact openly defies them and mocks them then runs to the Unsupreme Court to get what he wants , everyone else be dawned! Does not take advice from any in congress and if they defy him just threatens them ! We are seeing that now with him over the release of the Epstein files ! Doesn't matter if you have the actual victims standing on the steps of the Whitehouse giving their statements to the media ,he will just say they are paid liers ! It never ends with him ! He is not fit both mentally and physically to be the President! I do not know why he hasn't been removed already . Is the regime going to start a Civil War! It is coming close to that . God help us all !