The GOP Is Getting Creamed on Abortion. But They Still Don’t Get How Badly.
With a Supreme Court case looming this week that could strip away the right to mifepristone, an abortion medication used in nearly half of abortions nationwide, the GOP is at a crossroads. At issue is whether the party will hew to the most extreme of positions: outlawing abortion with few to no exceptions, not even in cases of rape or incest, or to save the life of the mother. The few moderates left within the GOP are wringing their hands and warning of electoral catastrophe, while the presidential candidates weave and dodge the issue to ensure they can still appeal to the base while not alienating centrist voters.
It’s not working. Instead, we see confusing and inconsistent party messaging, rather than any kind of consensus position on abortion. That was readily apparent over the weekend as Republican spokespersons and candidates fielded tough questions from the press.
Just how bad is the abortion issue splitting the GOP, and will it be a big factor in the 2024 elections? Let’s review a whole spectrum of positions and see where things are shaking out, at least currently.
Trump and abortion
For years, the GOP has not attempted to hold any kind of consistent party platform on pretty much anything. They even made it official seven years ago when they said the platform was whatever Trump wanted. When it comes to abortion, however, their leader has had shifting positions, from once saying there should be criminal penalties for women who get them, to now criticizing the GOP and blaming its abortion stance for the miserable midterm results.
“It was the ‘abortion issue’, poorly handled by many Republicans, especially those that firmly insisted on no exceptions, even in the case of rape, incest, or life of the mother, that lost large numbers of voters,” Trump stated, defending against charges that he brought the party down in the midterms with his own extremist MAGA agenda.
The thing is, he was probably correct on abortion. Reproductive rights factored highly in critical races in the battleground states such as Michigan, Pennsylvania and Arizona, all of which swung decisively blue.
Moderates weigh in
In a strange alignment, moderate Republican politicians generally agree with Trump on this question. Rep. Nancy Mace (R-SC), whom I call the Susan Collins of the House, but who admittedly does seem to have her finger on the pulse of moderate swing voters, warned over the weekend that the GOP needed to back away from its most extreme positions. In an appearance this past Sunday on Fox, where she also criticized her own party for inaction on gun violence, Mace said of abortion:
We need to find a middle ground on this issue. And I have a great pro-life voting record. But some of these stances we’ve taken, especially when it comes to rape and incest, protecting the life of the mother—it’s so extreme, the middle, the independent voters, right of center, left of center, they cannot support us.
That middle ground is indeed proving elusive. Newly announced presidential candidate, Sen. Tim Scott of South Carolina, promised that, if elected, he would sign whatever is the most conservative bill to come through Congress. But when pressed on his views by CBS’s Caitlin Huey-Burns, he couldn’t provide a straight answer.
Huey-Burns: "If you were president, would you advocate for federal limits?"
Scott: "I'm 100% pro-life."
Huey-Burns: "So, yes?"
Scott: "That's not what I said."
For Republican Governor Kemp of Georgia, who had earned some respect from the state’s moderates for rebuffing Trump’s attempts to overturn the 2020 election, the abortion issue is simply one of messaging and not being “ugly” with those who disagree. In an appearance on “State of the Union,” Kemp said,
I think Republicans have to do a better job of explaining to people where we are…. We have to be honest and transparent with them. And we have to not be afraid to tell people where we are and be truthful.
So, just two small problems with that: Republicans actually don’t know where they are, and they are acting as if they are very much afraid to tell people the truth.
DeSantis in DeMiddle of the night
A case study in cowardliness is the deplorable-in-his-own-way alternative to Trump, Gov. Ron DeSantis of Florida. On Thursday he signed a draconian six-week abortion ban into law. The gist of the law is bad enough, given that many pregnancies aren’t even clear or known by that point, but the way he signed it also speaks volumes about the trap the GOP has set for itself.
DeSantis was campaigning in Ohio and Iowa last week, even while torrential flooding was affecting parts of his home state, including Ft. Lauderdale. DeSantis didn’t come home to review flood damage, but he did pop in on Thursday to sign the law, then waited until 11pm to quietly announce it before heading off to speak at Liberty University, a bastion of extremist social conservativism.
The dead-of-night announcement could perhaps be in recognition of how unpopular the bill is. A University of North Florida poll in late February showed 75% of Florida residents either somewhat or strongly opposed to a six-week ban, including 61% of Republicans.
At Liberty University, DeSantis had a friendly audience and an opportunity to tout his landmark abortion restriction, but as the panelists on “Meet the Press” noted this weekend, DeSantis chose instead to remain completely silent about the new law. Here was DeSantis’s golden opportunity to distinguish himself from Trump, before an enthusiastic crowd, by moving to the right of him on abortion. Yet DeSantis passed up the chance. It’s another example of how the GOP is simply terrified of saying out loud what they are in fact doing at state capitals around the country.
The extremists are digging in
Rep. Mace says to tone it down, Sen. Scott speaks out of both sides of his mouth, Gov. Kemp says to deal with it truthfully, Gov. DeSantis signs extreme laws but goes silent on it—all of this shows how very vulnerable the GOP is on this question. But for the far-right of the party, the answer is simple: double down.
In one red state legislature after another, abortion laws are tightening, to the point where the GOP has created a truly dystopian landscape. In Idaho, for example, a new abortion law makes it a crime to help a pregnant minor obtain a legal abortion in another state—the first-of-its-kind abortion travel ban in the country. And the new Florida law requires victims of rape or incest to document the crime or be forced to carry the perpetrator’s child to term. That part is so egregious that even the normally apolitical People magazine weighed in with a story about it.
National implications
Now that the Republicans have gotten their way with a stacked Supreme Court, and it is truly up to each state to decide how far they will restrict abortion rights, extremists are salivating at the chance to prove they are the most “out there” on the issue. It’s a reminder of how GOP politicians inhabit a destructive news and social media cycle where they are rewarded for cruelty and extremism by the base, yet blind to how the rest of the country thinks.
The abortion question is a dead loser for the GOP. We saw that play out disastrously for the party in the recent Wisconsin state Supreme Court race, with the anti-abortion extremist losing by double digits in a typically evenly divided state. We saw it in 2022 in deep-red Kansas, where a proposed abortion restriction amendment to the Constitution went down by over 18 points.
But cautionary voices like Rep. Mace are being drowned out while she is being pilloried for even suggesting that the GOP soften its tone to win back swing voters. Democrats, meanwhile, are united in their efforts to keep abortion, including abortion medication, legal. Top congressional and gubernatorial leaders in the party have been highlighting their concrete steps, including legislation and the stockpiling of mifepristone, to protect reproductive rights.
As 2024 draws nearer, the stark difference between the two parties on this issue will become further apparent, and many horrific stories of women who were denied basic abortion care likely will have hardened an already fed-up public. Ballot measures to protect abortion rights are being discussed and prepared by abortion rights activists for November 2024, including in states like Montana and Arizona that happen also to be ground zero for control of the Senate. And in New York, where control of the House likely will be decided, voters will have a chance in November 2024 to enshrine civil rights protections for women, including abortion access, into the state constitution.
It isn’t yet clear that the GOP truly sees or comprehends the giant it has awoken, with its leaders and the MAGA base living in their own echo chamber and false news reality. From where I sit, they may face a very harsh reality check in 2024.
I want every Republican voting to ban or restrict abortions to present proof that she (if a woman) had never had an abortion, was never on the pill, never used the morning after pill, etc. Or, if a man, present proof from all his former and current sexual partners, demonstrating none of them ever got an abortion after getting pregnant by him. Yes, that would be a gross violation of their privacy, because they would have to release their medical records - but so is tracking women's menstrual cycles, demanding they declare when and where they might have gone to get an abortion, and demanding they confess to having one in the first place. So.... since they don't care about my privacy, I no longer care about theirs. You are anti-abortion? Prove it. Show me.
P. S. DeSantis in DaMiddle of the night - that is adorable, I love it!
Lets not forget the other governors limiting and criminalizing abortion access-who would go further! Texas Greg Abbott shines his uber ‘anti-life’ agenda every chance hr gets, protecting zygotes but not the children resulting from them. Many Republicans here are beginning to give him the side eye as humans post-utero are gunned down every day while OB/GYN’s are shuttering services out of sheer panic. The foster system in Texas ranks dead last in the country.
There is a red line and by and large Abbott is a toe over it from even his own party’s point of view.