It’s crunch time in politics. Tuesday, November 8th is the final day of voting in the 2022 midterms, though early voting is already underway in many states. That means just four short weeks remain until Election Day. (Gulp.) In this remaining time, the parties will seek to establish the momentum going forward, because in the end that will almost certainly be determinative when it comes to control of Congress.
So where do we stand today? I try to remain clear-eyed, pragmatic, and fact-centered in my assessments, even if the news isn’t great. Today, I would say the news is better than any had expected it would be by this point in time. But that doesn’t mean that the Democrats will carry the day. After seeing some solid movement in the polls toward the Democrats throughout the late summer and early fall, many GOP voters are now coming back to their party and rallying around candidates, no matter how flawed or extreme they are.
We have seen this pattern before with Donald Trump, whom you might say was the ultimate of flawed candidates, and who did everything politicians are not supposed to do. Yet he won the Electoral College in 2016 and garnered 72 million votes in 2020. We should never underestimate the power of money, self-interest, and political identity when it comes to elections.
There are three core scenarios come November 8, 2022 which I will discuss in turn: 1) Democrats lose the House but keep the Senate, 2) Democrats keep both the House and the Senate, 3) Republicans take both the House and the Senate. (I find it highly unlikely that the Republicans would take the Senate but not the House.) Let’s look at each today.
Scenario One: Democrats Lose the House But Keep the Senate
This remains the most likely scenario, much as it pains me to write that. The very narrow margin Democrats hold in the House is threatened by a few key factors: 1) A high number of competitive “toss-up” seats, with twice as many defended by Democrats as Republicans, 2) high inflation and in particular the very real risk of gas prices increasing over the next few weeks, and, relatedly, 3) Joe Biden’s low approval numbers. If this were a “normal” midterm, it would probably be a wipeout as voters historically have voiced their displeasure toward the party in power through punishing midterm results.
The Dobbs decision overturning Roe v. Wade changed the calculus this year, however. Because of the Supreme Court, which was stacked by the GOP, the Republican Party is perceived by many Americans as the “party in power” that is running things in a way they don’t like. Too much change happening too quickly, especially in areas like personal bodily autonomy, isn’t something even moderate conservatives appreciate. Earlier this summer, that was enough to galvanize voters in deeply red Kansas against an abortion restriction in the state constitution. The effect of Dobbs has amounted to around a 4-point shift toward the Democrats in generic polling and in special House races since it came down.
Control of the House will boil down to whether women voters and young voters most affected by the Dobbs decision and by extremist anti-abortion legislation in the states turn out in high numbers to protest with their votes. According to the most recent assessment by the Cook Political Report, they will need to exceed the anti-Biden vote by the GOP and conservatives across some 31 toss-up races in swing districts, around two-thirds of which are actually in states Joe Biden won in 2020. Otherwise put, if Democrats turn out with as much enthusiasm as they did two years ago relative to Republicans, they would hold the House. But if they fail to materialize as hoped, it doesn’t take much for the House majority to be lost.
I should add here that I am not a gloom-and-doomer when it comes to loss of the House majority. Under a GOP-led House, the next two years likely would be an ugly, non-stop circus of trolling, politicized hearings, obstruction and even impeachments, with almost nothing real getting done. While that sounds and would indeed be horrifying, this could sour Americans considerably to the GOP and its extremism come 2024. As we learned under four years of Trump, sometimes we have to experience just how awful things can be before enough voters get the picture.
Scenario Two: Democrats Keep Both the House and the Senate
There are two waves crashing at the same time here. The red wave is built on political and social grievance, displeasure at high inflation, and the historical advantage the party out of power has after two years. The blue wave is built on anger over the Dobbs decision and alarm over anti-democratic extremism, exemplified by many seriously problematic candidates fielded by the GOP.
The swing states hold much of the key to realizing Scenario Two. Democrats are defending four vulnerable senate seats, in Arizona, New Hampshire, Georgia and Nevada (with some concern, which has faded of late, about Colorado). In all four races, the GOP has fielded MAGA extremists. That has kept the Democrats on top of the polls in the first three of these races, with a coin toss situation in Nevada due mostly to lackluster support from lower wage workers hurt by inflation and a possible downshift in Latino voter loyalty.
On the other hand, Republicans are defending five vulnerable Senate seats in Pennsylvania, Wisconsin, North Carolina, Florida and Ohio. Polls in Pennsylvania are getting tighter but still favor Democrats, and in the other four there are competitive races, at least according to the polls. Importantly, if Democrats win any one of these five races, it makes the math extremely hard for Mitch McConnell to win back the Senate and become majority leader.
Alarm over GOP extremism, paired with marquis senate races in battleground states, could tip the House toward the Democrats in enough swing districts in those states for them to hold their slim majority. Of the 31 races currently rated “toss-ups” by Cook Political, nine are in these pivotal states and could prove determinative to who controls the House.
A “dream” scenario for Democrats would be to hold the House and take two new Senate seats in a blowout of Republicans. That would give new impetus to efforts to codify the protections that Roe v. Wade once afforded and to expand voting rights. Specifically, Democrats could eliminate the filibuster over civil rights-related laws by changing the Senate rules through a simple majority vote—a move they could muster if they could make just Joe Manchin and Kyrsten Sinema irrelevant.
I should caution that for this scenario to occur, the polls would need to have been significantly off when it comes to assessing voter strength and enthusiasm on the left. That happened once before in Kansas on the abortion referendum, so it can’t be ruled out entirely, but it certainly would be an unusual if welcome outcome. It is actually far more likely that Republican voters are being missed by pollsters, as we saw in 2016 and 2020–which is a very good reason never to rely on positive polling for Democrats.
Scenario Three: Republicans Take Both the House and the Senate
If the anger over Dobbs fails to manifest through high voter enthusiasm and turnout, Democrats could very well lose both the House and the Senate. The House side of this scenario is easier to see happening in a number of scenarios, so the real risk lies in the Senate.
Polls have been showing the race in Pennsylvania tightening as millions of dollars in attack ads target John Fetterman. In Georgia, despite a series of scandals that ought to have been disqualifying, Herschel Walker remains within just a few points of Sen. Raphael Warnock. And Catherine Cortez Masto is facing a tough reelection against her challenger Adam Laxalt, who is focusing his attacks on the Nevada economy, which has been battered by the pandemic and inflation. Polls there show Masto barely ahead of Laxalt or in a statistical tie.
If Democrats and independents shrug at the extremism of the GOP and fail to turn out, losses in two of these three races would give the GOP a one seat majority. There is also the possibility that either Sinema or Manchin defects to the GOP in a 50/50 split. (This is particularly the case with Sinema, who is facing a tough primary challenge from the left in 2024, though her record of voting would still seem to indicate she is primarily a centrist Democrat at heart.)
If both chambers of Congress were controlled by the GOP, President Biden would need to govern much as Barack Obama did the last half of his first term. We would likely see a quick end to new judicial appointments, and any vacancies on the Supreme Court would likely mean a refusal by Mitch McConnell to consider any nominees until after the 2024 election. We might see the spectacle of “revenge” hearings and impeachment-related proceedings in both chambers in order to discredit the work of the January 6 Committee and the Justice Department. Congress could even seek to hold up appropriations and funding for programs and agencies they don’t like. In sum, it would get very ugly and dangerous.
In order to avoid scenario three, Democrats need to focus their energy, donations, and attention on key senate races. For me, the road to the Senate majority runs through Nevada, Georgia and Pennsylvania, with wildcards in Wisconsin and North Carolina. (Flipping a seat in Florida or Ohio blue is a nice thought but has proven elusive of late.)
A Senate in Democratic hands, regardless of what happens in the House, would serve as a bulwark against MAGA extremism and permit President Biden to continue his crucial work rebalancing the federal courts with competent professionals, not partisans. It would also provide a key point of defense against election shenanigans in 2024, where a vote by the Senate would be required to sustain any objections to the results.
In sum, we should be prepared mentally for a likely Scenario One, work hard for the dream of Scenario Two, and avoid Scenario Three altogether if we possibly can. There is enough time remaining for political donations, made today, to make a difference in the outcome by Election Day. If you have the means to help, consider giving to the Democratic senate candidates in Nevada, Georgia, Pennsylvania, Wisconsin and North Carolina. Links below.
For Catherine Cortez Masto in Nevada: https://secure.actblue.com/donate/ccm-ads-2022?refcode=ads_als_gs_d2d_nat_decemberrefresh&gclid=Cj0KCQjwy5maBhDdARIsAMxrkw0oWodwigqJ1HBVybwJ2u6n4j35HbX5t07UVVHrWueTbMp7Och5UqcaApahEALw_wcB
For Sen. Raphael Warnock in Georgia:
For Lt. Gov. John Fetterman in Pennsylvania:
For Lt. Gov. Mandela Barnes in Wisconsin:
For Justice Cheri Beasley in North Carolina:
I really hope the polls are wrong and that there will be a mass turn out to protect women rights to bodily autonomy and voter rights for everyone the GOP is not stopping at taking those rights away they are going after our elderly and our children the LGBTQ community they aren’t even trying to hide it anymore they are saying straight out what they will be doing and people are cheering them on I guess not even realizing they are included in the destruction of lives they will cause. I am in fear for this country if the GOP takes control of anything this November. State levels elections are super important as well we all need to get out and vote like our lives depend on it because they do for some of us. I keep hoping Americans will wake up from this nightmare and use their votes to make a difference. I do not GAF about inflation that will work itself out, it’s worldwide the GOP is counting on people being more worried about their wallets than they are the rights of others or even themselves. Sadly I know that most elderly conservatives will vote against themselves and they will regret it when the GOP is done ripping away their Medicaid and their SSI as they have said they will do as well as reversing the drug reduction bill on big pharma! I am so tired of what this country has become and how quickly it got there under the twice impeached former defeated guy, he is a danger to America and the world and Putin and other dictators are rooting for the failure of our republic and democracy sadly millions of Americans will give the GOP the dictators of the world exactly what they want and then somehow will find a way to blame dems for the fall of America. SMDH I am at a loss and very disheartened by what is happening to this country!
Superb analysis, at least as of Oct. 13. As we all know, though, unpredictable stuff can, and usually does happen, especially in the final days leading up to a tough election. For both sides, voter turnout will be key, and for Dems in particular it will be young - especially first time - voters, outraged women, and sensible Independents. Regardless, any pundit worth their salt should read this analysis before writing their own. It is a model of objective clarity, even though from a pro-Dem perspective. Kudos, Jay!