The Rule of Law and Rally Points

I received many emails and comments about the Friday arrest of Judge Hannah Dugan, a circuit court judge in Milwaukee, Wisconsin. We are all justifiably outraged at the administration’s latest attack upon our judiciary. And it is clear the White House through its “Justice” Department has now upped the stakes considerably with this move.

I will spend time later this week dissecting the merits of the case, or demonstrable lack thereof. But for today, I want to put Judge Dugan’s arrest in a larger context.

This administration is failing. It’s tanked the economy, sown deep doubt and mistrust with our allies, and displayed its incompetence and malice at every turn. This is not just me wish casting. The American voters are saying this very clearly. Trump’s approval numbers, for example, fell below 40 percent in two major polls out today. The Associated Press/NORC poll and the ABC News/Washington Post/Ipsos poll both have him at just 39 percent, the worst of any president at this point in his term in some 80 years of polling.

In response, the White House is doubling down on the one place where it believes—incorrectly—that it has the support of the electorate: immigration policy.

The problem is that its immigration policy is run by a bunch of very nasty people, to use Trump’s own favorite term. Stephen Miller, Kristi Noem, Tom Homan, Kash Patel—this gang would have been right at home in 1930s Germany. Importantly, they exist in a self-reinforcing, terminally online and Fox sound bite driven world, where their inhumanity wins accolades from the far-right but they remain wholly out of step with the rest of the nation. They advance Trump’s authoritarian goals using intentionally brutal means, believing this makes them look strong and ruthless in the eyes of the MAGA base and Dear Leader, but without a thought to how these will affect the overall reputation or success of the administration.

In short, it’s a race to the bottom for the bottom feeders.

Now they’ve expanded the board by directing I.C.E. to target U.S. citizens who are children of undocumented migrants and to attack and arrest our judges at the local, state and federal levels. This is a serious miscalculation.

U.S. voters already don’t like what they’re seeing and hearing. They don’t agree, for example, with deporting U.S. citizens. They really don’t agree with deporting U.S. citizens who are mere children or toddlers. Yet this administration managed to deport U.S. citizens who are not only children but even suffering from cancer, in desperate need of medical treatment. They did this not just once but multiple times.

These are not “errors.” They are cruel, deliberate moves designed to convey to migrants who are here, and to those who might consider coming here, that they will be shown no due process, no mercy, no humanity. Not even for their sick children who can legally claim U.S. birthright citizenship. MAGA may cheer this, but most voters recoil.

This same thinking has caused them to deploy federal agents to detain migrants at courthouses and arrest judges for “obstructing justice” and “harboring criminals” based on the flimsiest of evidence. They moved forward in Judge Dugan’s case without even going to a grand jury first, likely because a panel might actually fail to indict. Their goal was to send a message to our judges that they are not safe from the White House’s authoritarian overreach.

But there’s a deeper message they have inadvertently sent: actual lives to rally around. There’s Kilmar Abrego García, who was deported to a torture prison in El Salvador based on acknowledged “administrative error.” Now there’s Judge Hannah Dugan, who has every right to ensure her courtroom doesn’t turn into a circus, even while the federal government tries to show it will act with impunity. The White House sought to cast these people as dangerous criminals, but instead it has put a spotlight on their essential humanity. And supporters are rallying around them.

This has led to something both startling and important. Even on Donald Trump’s signature issue of immigration, he is now underwater. He can’t hold his head above the red, including on the question of how he is handling migrants.

In the latest AP poll, taken just a few days later, he is now seven points net negative with voters on immigration.

His administration’s actions on immigration are not popular, and they are not what most voters want or believe they voted for. With numbers at these levels, swing district and purple state Republicans who continue to tie themselves to Trump will be in deep trouble come the next election. Look for many to begin to distance themselves from the worst excesses.

We can all help push this along. Begin by uplifting and amplifying the stories of these victims—the deported U.S. children with cancer, Abrego García, Judge Hannah Dugan—within your networks. Attend local rallies and protests organized by 50501. Donate to the ACLU and other civil rights organizations. And, if I can give a plug for independent journalism and paid subscriptions, support those who are picking up the slack left by big media companies whose owners have shamelessly kissed Trump’s ring.

When I was far younger, I was an avid chess player (Arizona Junior High state champion! Woohoo!). From where I sit, the Trump White House pushed all of its pieces out far too rapidly, attacking with a fury but without a plan. It is now beating hasty retreats nearly everywhere. It’s boxed in and trying to win even small battles as its flank collapses on the economy, tariffs and relentless stories of grift and incompetence. Importantly, it is wasting precious political capital at a time where it will soon need “moderate” Republicans in purple districts to help push through huge cuts in the social safety net to pay for tax breaks for the super wealthy.

Seen in this light, its broad attacks on migrants and the judiciary will only serve to underscore the desperate state of affairs within this administration. Remember this whenever it targets someone going forward. Each act of authoritarian overreach forms a key rally point for the Resistance. And we will derive far more political mileage and narrative value out of it than the administration ever will.