The Surrender Caucus

Eight Democrats crossed the party line to vote with the Republicans to clear a key procedural hurdle to ending the shutdown.

I’m jumping on a plane in an hour back to the East Coast, but I wanted to share and expand upon the thoughts I posted yesterday on social media concerning what is widely viewed as a betrayal by eight Democratic senators (technically, seven plus one independent who caucuses with the Dems) who I am calling the Surrender Caucus.

Here are their names: Rosen (NV), Cortez Masto (NV), Shaheen (NH), Hassan (NH), Durbin (IL), Kaine (VA), King (ME) and Fetterman (PA).

To understand what happened, it is valuable to zoom in on where I believe this caucus found itself and erred and to zoom out to understand the larger context of why this was a strategic mistake.

I should add that there was no world in which the shutdown would go on forever. It was always about which side could capitalize politically on it better. Eventually, it seemed clear to me that the moderates in the Senate would strike a deal. The problem is, they misread the moment, squandering the chance to land more blame upon the Trump regime and the GOP and risking both a splintering of party unity and control of the narrative.

So let’s zoom in and zoom out on last night’s vote that will likely end the shutdown.

Zooming in on the math and procedure

In order to bring a legislative solution to the government shutdown to a full vote, it has to clear a filibuster, meaning it needs at least 60 votes. This was the Democrats’ sole leverage. So long as eight of them did not go along with a proposal to reopen the government, the shutdown would continue. (The number was eight and not seven because Rand Paul (R-KY) was a “no” on any continuing resolution to fund the government.)

Last night, there were eight votes for a proposed legislative package. That means debate came to an end, and the measure can now proceed to a vote. It’s not entirely clear how long that will take, but it could be a few days more. Then the House has to convene and vote on the same bill (it’s been away for weeks throughout the shutdown on orders from Speaker Johnson), before it goes to Trump’s desk for signature.

Zoom in on the deal

The key sticking point for the parties has been over extension of ACA premium subsidies, which expire at the end of the year. The last offer by Senate Minority Leader Chuck Schumer was to agree to reopen the government if the GOP would agree to extend those ACA premium subsidies by a year.

The GOP Senate rejected that as a non-starter, indicating that they would pretty much never agree to anything unless and until the government was reopened. That meant the pain would continue and worsen quickly for everyone.

Senate negotiators from both parties have been meeting to try to find a solution. Per reporting by the New York Times, the proposed legislation has a few key components:

The compromise measure includes a spending package that would fund the government through January, as well as three separate spending bills to cover programs related to agriculture, military construction and legislative agencies for most of 2026. The package also includes a provision that would reverse layoffs of federal workers made during the shutdown and ensure retroactive pay.

That last part is something of a “win” even though it only forces Congress to actually follow the law. (Yes, this is where we are now.)

The problem with the deal is that it does not include anything but a promise by the GOP that there will be a vote no later than the second week of December on a Democratic bill to extend the ACA premium benefits.

Zoom in on the Surrender Caucus justifications

Sen. Jeanne Shaheen (D-NH) helped lead the negotiations and this morning went before the media, including the Fox Network, to explain her thinking. In addition to reopening the government and ensuring federal workers and contractors get paid, aviation safety and operations are restored and food assistance goes out to millions, Shaheen expressed hope that certain members of the GOP would work with Democrats to address the healthcare crisis:

“I believe there are number of Republicans who are gonna join us in trying to address healthcare costs ... we are gonna be able to continue to fight about healthcare because we’re gonna have a vote in December.”

The problem of course is that even in the unlikely event the Senate were to pass some kind of bill extending the ACA premium subsidies, there is no guarantee the House would take up that bill. In fact, Speaker Mike Johnson made it pretty clear he had made no promises on such a bill.

Sen. Angus King (I-ME) was blunter in his assessment—and in fairness has voted in favor of reopening the government since the beginning. He argued that standing up to Donald Trump wasn’t working and actually had given him more power to do things like cut off SNAP benefits and decide who in government to pay. He noted that ICE agents continued to be paid during the shutdown.

This of course is only true because the White House was violating the law. The money allocated for ICE by the Republican budget had not yet been appropriated and therefore payments to them under that bill were technically illegal, which has never stopped this White House before.

Zoom Out: Eating a shit sandwich

During a press conference after the vote, Sen. Shaheen said of the brokered agreement,

This was the only deal on the table. It was our best chance to reopen the government and immediately begin negotiations to extend the ACA tax credits that tens of millions of Americans rely on to keep costs down.

But here’s the thing. A deal only offering a commitment to hold a vote gives away everything for nothing. When the only deal on the table is a shit sandwich, the correct response is to get up from the table and walk away. Smearing some mayonnaise on that shit sandwich isn’t going to make it more palatable.

Instead, these Democrats gave up the only leverage available to them: the filibuster. We all understood from the beginning that this was going to be hard. Millions would go without paychecks. And later tens of millions would go without food. That is what a strike, which is what this basically was, feels like. It sucks.

But the voters had told their leaders, “Do it anyway. Don’t believe their promises. Make them put it all in writing. Save our healthcare.” Federal workers, who are most affected by the shutdown, were told that this was all necessary to ensure healthcare for millions of their fellow Americans.

The move by the Surrender Caucus ignored or misread all of that. These senators thought they were sparing their constituents some present pain, but they are actually dooming them to far worse pain later. And the surrender was a slap in the face to all who suffered to get us this far.

And it’s not just the folks on ACA whose rates will go up. As Michigan state Sen. Mallory McMorrow, who is running for the U.S. Senate, explained, once insurance rates skyrocket for the tens of millions who rely on the ACA, as we’ve already seen, we will see millions of those citizens simply forgo health insurance altogether. They will wind up waiting until something is so bad they must go to the ER—which will increase costs for everyone, thus driving insurance premiums higher all around.

Zoom out: But it had to end eventually

The shutdown was starting to carry terrible consequences for poor families, furloughed workers, and air traffic safety. But it was clear from the polling that Trump and the GOP were getting most of the blame, and rightly so. The Surrender Democrats failed to understand two important things about this.

First, Democrats had just won a resounding electoral victory. That energy got sucked out of the room by their decision to cave. Now progressives are angry at the moderates, and the House Democrats feel betrayed once again by their Senate colleagues.

Second, if the Surrender Caucuse knew it was going to move to end the shutdown, they needed to lead with messaging, not explain themselves after the fact. The public needed to hear much more about how the Republicans refused to deal. There had only been one public GOP rejection of a reasonable proposal by Schumer to extend the ACA subsidies in exchange for a reopening of the government. That needed to happen several times until it was crystal clear to every American that the GOP has zero interest in extending them.

It would have been much better, since we got this far already, to allow the pain of air travel disruptions to cause GOP officials to hear from their affected constituents, and for the millions of MAGA voters on food assistance to understand that the White House wasn’t going to do a thing except throw more lavish parties at Mar-a-Lago. Democrats could have queued all this up and told the voters that Trump was even willing to ruin Thanksgiving, and that they were there to finally pull us out of the nosedive the GOP had put the country into.

All of those opportunities are now wasted. When they say that Democrats don’t know how to message, this is a very good example of that.

Zoom out: What we can do

We can’t stop this bill from moving forward. What we can do is pivot to demanding that the Senate—and the House—actually vote to extend the ACA premium subsidies. When they refuse to do so, as is likely, we can use that to fuel the anger that will sweep them from power next year. That is our next battle, and it’s one we can win.

While the window to cause further damage to Trump and the GOP over the shutdown is now closing, it doesn’t mean that we should let up on the damage they have caused and continue to cause. We need to remind voters that Trump was willing to let millions starve. We need to remind voters that the reason they can’t afford insurance isn’t because eight Democrats caved, but because the GOP is refusing to extend the ACA premium subsidies.

I am very frustrated and disappointed at the result last night. I feel betrayed and let down. But in fairness, had the messaging been delivered correctly, and had the shutdown ended even a couple weeks later, I probably would have nodded along knowing that in the end the Dems will always be on the side of a functioning government.

But no matter. From here, we pick up where we left off. The pain that the Republicans are about to inflict on the working poor will still happen. Rates are about to soar. Medicaid and food assistance are about to get slashed. What we just witnessed, food lines and all, is sadly just a taste of the chaos ahead.

It’s our responsibility to ensure that voters understand that they have the power to change this trajectory by evicting the GOP from power in Congress next November. They need to turn out just like they did last Tuesday or even stronger. Everything is now in play, and it’s foot to the pedal all the way.