The Week Ahead (01.14.24)

Deaths at the border as Texas flouts federal authority, an expansion of the war in the Middle East, the budget battle, and the Iowa caucuses

Donald Trump arrives looking a bit worse for the wear in Iowa last night. Credit: Ron Filipkowski on X

I’m following four stories today that are all likely to continue through the week. They relate to topics that we will hear a lot about this year: the border, the budget, the war, and the election.

Three deaths at the river crossing raise the stakes for the standoff with Texas

Last week, Texas’s Gov. Greg Abbott ordered the Texas National Guard to block U.S. Border Patrol agents from entering a two-and-a-half mile stretch of the river border with Mexico at Eagle Pass. The order effectively prevented border agents from patrolling the area. Then on Wednesday, Texas state troopers and National Guard members took “full control” of an area called Shelby Park, putting wire up around it. That is the area from which federal border agents normally launch their boats to perform Rio Grande patrols.

That cordoning off of Shelby Park helped lead to the tragic drowning deaths of a woman and two children on Saturday, who were among six migrants in distress at the river border. Texas had erected razor wire along the water, the kind that can trap bodies easily. Given the high risk of drowning, a federal judge had earlier ordered Texas to remove the wire, but the conservative Fifth Circuit had stayed the injunction. The U.S. Justice Department has asked the Supreme Court to intervene, citing (correctly) the exclusive power of the federal government to oversee and administer the border.

The deaths are being investigated but are sure to increase pressure on Abbott and bring greater attention to the court battle between his state and the federal government. “In responding to a distress call from the Mexican government, Border Patrol agents were physically barred by Texas officials from entering the area,” a Department of Homeland Security spokesperson said in a statement. “The Texas governor’s policies are cruel, dangerous, and inhumane, and Texas’s blatant disregard for federal authority over immigration poses grave risks.”

Republicans in disarray over the budget

It remains unclear, even after House GOP negotiators came to a top-line budget agreement with their Democratic counterparts in the Senate, whether Speaker Mike Johnson will be able to get it enacted. He’s facing both a looming deadline before a partial government shutdown and a revolt from far-right members of his own party, who would rather shutter the government than agree to the final budget compromise.

There have been conflicting reports over whether Johnson remains behind the deal he struck, and extremists on the right have begun to threaten his removal if he proceeds with it. Given the tight timeframe, the only solution for Johnson at this time appears to be what he earlier promised wouldn’t happen: another “continuing resolution” to kick the can down the road till March.

It is either that or begin shutting down parts of the government, including popular and necessary things like veterans’ benefits. It remains unclear if Speaker Johnson’s right flank will try to take him out as their leader if another CR passes with Democratic support. It also remains unclear whether Democrats will unanimously vote for removal, or whether some will step in to save Johnson from his own party should it come to that.

The U.S. and the U.K. attack Houthi targets inside Yemen

Houthi militias in Yemen have been targeting vessels in the Red Sea, including commercial ships and U.S. and U.K. warships in the area. The Houthis launched the attacks to support Hamas, which is also an Iranian-backed militia, in its war with Israel in Gaza. The Houthis disrupted global shipping and put the lives of sailors and servicemembers at risk, as well as the health of the fragile global economy as prices for food, fuel and goods rose in response to the attacks.

A coalition of many nations—Australia, Bahrain, Canada, Denmark, Germany, the Netherlands, New Zealand and South Korea—supported the U.S. and the U.K. in the military campaign. Missiles hit dozens of targets inside Yemen, with the U.S. claiming it “executed deliberate strikes on over 60 targets at 16 Iranian-backed Houthi militant locations.” The U.S. military claimed it hit only military, not civilian targets.

The effort to deter further attacks by the Houthis and to degrade their offensive capabilities carries significant risks. The Houthis themselves remain defiant and claim that they will retaliate. The militia survived years of attacks by Saudi Arabia and isn’t likely to be easily defeated. And one thing is clear: The close allies of the two warring parties in Gaza are now in open conflict with one another now. That represents a significant escalation. We’ll need to see if the Houthi’s attacks continue as promised, if they have any effect on global shipping, and if other Iranian-backed militias such as Hezbollah seek to expand the fighting.

The Iowa Caucuses are Monday and Trump likely will dominate

The latest polling from the historically reliable Des Moines Register shows Trump cruising to an easy victory with 48 percent of caucus goers likely to pick the former president as their candidate. Nikki Haley and Ron DeSantis are vying for a distant second place, with Haley at 20 percent and DeSantis slightly behind at 16 percent. But the numbers may hide a weakness for Haley, whose supporters are not as staunchly loyal to her and may not show up in big numbers. (The Iowa Caucuses are a distinctly in-person affair.)

That weakness may be tested by the current poor weather conditions in Iowa, where freezing temperatures and snow could dissuade the less enthusiastic from heading out of their houses to vote. Haley has relied almost exclusively upon the ground game of the Koch Network, which endorsed her for president over Trump, and it isn’t clear whether it will deliver warm bodies for her in this frigid environment.

Trump’s base shows the strongest enthusiasm to trudge through snow and brave winter weather to come vote for their favored candidate. Both Haley and DeSantis are hoping to place second in order to give them momentum going into the nation’s first GOP primary in New Hampshire. But a strong showing by Trump in Iowa—despite his having campaigned only lightly there, not participated in the primary debates, and his mounting legal troubles and criminal exposure—will reinforce the idea that the GOP is with Trump almost no matter what.

Any way we slice it, 2024 is going to be a crucial test for our democracy against the havoc and threat of Trump and MAGA. But for many Americans, somehow still, that threat hasn’t felt very real. A recent internal study by the Biden Campaign showed that three out of four undecideds are not yet ready to believe that Trump will actually be on the GOP ticket. Perhaps they are just in denial. But when reality sets in—maybe as early as Super Tuesday in early March—persuading those voters of the danger of Trump’s return will be key to defeating him in November.

Have a great and restful long holiday weekend.

Jay