The Week Ahead (01.28.24)

A possible hostages-for-ceasefire deal, Biden talks tough on immigration, and the Arizona GOP in chaos

Kari Lake booed and heckled at the Arizona state GOP convention. Screen cap courtesy of The Meidas Touch Network

There are three stories I’m following this morning, so let’s get right to them.

Hostages for a two month ceasefire?

Israel and Hamas are reportedly closer to a deal that could result in the release of some 100 hostages still held by Hamas in Gaza, in exchange for a two month ceasefire. The New York Times is reporting that there is a written draft agreement that could get signed in the next two weeks. Negotiators are expressing cautious optimism, according to U.S. officials, but some differences remain.

President Biden has been working the phones with leaders of Egypt and Qatar, two countries that have been serving as intermediaries with Hamas. The goal is a prolonged humanitarian pause to ensure lifesaving assistance throughout the territory. The last truce was only seven days long, but it resulted in a hostage-prisoner exchange, with Israel securing the release of some 100 hostages in exchange for 240 Palestinian prisoners. There are around 136 people taken on October 7 who are still unaccounted for, including six Americans. Some two dozen of the missing hostages are believed to have already perished, however.

The hope is the pause will allow diplomacy to resolve some of the conflict, and that after a 60 day pause, Israel will not have the stomach to resume its current level of attacks, which have killed an estimated 25,000 people, mostly women and children. As the Times noted, a ceasefire could grant President Biden “breathing space” politically over his support for Israel in what many, especially young and progressive voters, believe is a genocidal campaign.

Biden talks tough on the border

Senate negotiators reportedly reached a bipartisan deal on the border. But the House GOP leadership under Speaker Mike Johnson is still holding out, in large measure under pressure from Trump and the far-right wing of the party not to hand Biden a political “win.”

President Biden upped the ante on Friday. As reported by the Washington Post, Biden released a statement that, should the bill be sent to him, he would sign it and “shut down” the border on the first day that he has authorization to do so under the bill’s terms.

This announcement comes as a bit of surprise and alarmed many progressive migrant rights activists. But it underscores how the Biden administration, and the Democratic party in general, has shifted to a far stricter stance on migrants, given the record number of border crossings now occurring. This shift has been driven in part by pressure from Democratic mayors who are feeling overwhelmed by the numbers of migrants arriving in their cities.

Contrary to the claims of Republicans, current asylum law does not grant Biden the right to unilaterally close the border, especially to legal asylum seekers. Though it could be challenged in court, the new bill would grant him that authority, should the number of crossings become unmanageable. Because that threshold—the proposed level is 5,000 average daily crossings in a given week—has already been reached, Biden could act immediately if Congress gives him the power to do so.

Biden is seeking to seize back the border narrative from the Republicans, who claim that Biden has failed to secure it. The proposed bill would hand Republicans most of their demands, while providing critical funds to Ukraine, which the GOP has held up over the border dispute. But the fate of the bill remains unclear, given Trump’s and the House GOP’s opposition to pretty much anything but their most draconian GOP House bill, which Democrats have long said is a non-starter.

The Arizona GOP is a hot mess

It’s difficult to encapsulate how upside down GOP politics are in the critical swing state of Arizona. But here’s a quick primer.

The big factor here is Kari Lake. She’s well known for having run an unsuccessful campaign for the state’s governorship in 2022, in a campaign rife with Trumpian extremism and election denialism. Lake lost to then-Secretary of State Katie Hobbs in large part because traditional Republicans rejected Lake’s radicalism.

One of the most stalwart of those Republican leaders was Jeff DeWit, who managed to thread a difficult needle of being unquestionably pro-Trump but also pro-business and not pro-crazy. DeWit was elected as head of the state party that year, replacing an extremist election denier. He had even previously employed Lake at one of his technology companies.

But recently he went one step too far, asking Lake to step aside from her quest to be the GOP’s Senate candidate for Arizona. He told her that “very powerful people” would give her money and a comfortable job if she agreed. Lake, however, had secretly recorded the conversation containing the bribe, then leaked it last Tuesday. This led to DeWit’s resignation, who claimed Lake threatened to release more tapes. There was then a contest to replace him as state GOP chair.

Winning the contest on Friday was Gina Swoboda, another election denier and Trump’s endorsed candidate. Her non-profit, the Voter Reference Foundation, has been involved in some dubious election conspiracies and quasi-investigations of state voter rolls and is closely tied to a PAC funded by Trump-aligned billionaire couple, Dick and Liz Uihlein, according to reporting by ProPublica.

When Lake went to introduce Swoboda to the crowd this weekend, she was met with boos and jeers, apparently in response to her involvement in the DeWit scandal. And if you’re keeping score, this adds to an alarming amount of GOP state party dysfunction: the acrimonious ouster of the GOP party chair in Michigan, where the party is nearly bankrupt; criminal sexual assault charges against the head of Florida’s GOP, who was also recently ousted as a result; and a party so fractured in Nevada that it is holding both an official state-sanctioned primary and an unofficial Republican party caucus.

It’s safe to say that the Republican dysfunction we are witnessing with Trump and in Congress has trickled down to the state party level as well, threatening the GOP’s chances of retaining the House and flipping the Senate this November.

Have a great Sunday, and I’ll see you back here tomorrow!

Jay