The Week Ahead (02.04.03)

Stepped up military strikes, a stand-alone bill for Israel, and Biden blows away expectations in South Carolina

Photo: Kent Nihimura / AFP

There are three major stories I am following today. Let’s get right to them.

Military strikes in the Middle East

The New York Times reported heavy air strikes, led by the U.S. and the U.K., on Houthi sites in Yemen. This follows a day of allied attacks on Iranian-backed militias in neighboring nations of Iraq and Syria. The moves are meant as further deterrence against continued missile attacks by Yemen on shipping vessels in the Red Sea, and as reprisals for the drone attack by the militias on U.S. forces which killed three servicemembers.

Most military experts believe that the strikes will not be able to degrade the Houthi’s forces sufficiently to stop attacks on commercial and other vessels in the region. And following the attacks on Iranian-backed militias, a key question is whether Iran will choose to escalate in response. So far, the Iranian response has been muted.

Should the conflict widen, it could further complicate ceasefire and peace negotiations among the parties. The Houthis claim they are attacking Western vessels in response to Israel’s war in Gaza, but their rationale is likely more complex, given the need for the Houthis to find a cause to rally the populace in the face of growing discontent over their governance of the country.

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Speaker Johnson tries to peel off Israeli aid

With the bipartisan Senate bill on border security and immigration increasing opposition in the House, Speaker Johnson is seeking to outflank Democrats by raising a stand-alone bill for aid to Israel only. Before this proposal, funding for Israel was part of a larger package that included aid to Ukraine, Taiwan and Gaza, as well as border security measures demanded by Republicans.

The White House quickly condemned the move. “Instead of working in a bipartisan way, House Republicans are playing a political game that does nothing to secure the border, nothing to help the people of Ukraine, and denies humanitarian assistance to Palestinian civilians,” the White House stated. “The Administration strongly opposes their proposal.”

White House Press Secretary Karine Jean-Pierre zeroed in specifically on the lack of any aid to Gaza in Johnson’s proposal, noting that humanitarian assistance was needed for the Palestinians, “the majority of them women and children,” and further pointed out that Israel supported the assistance by “opening the access route.”

Johnson is trying to split Democrats by dangling Israeli aid, so that if the Democrats vote it down, either in the House or in the Senate, he can claim that they voted against aid to Israel. Critics argue that it’s a cynical move that treats the people of Gaza and Ukraine like political pawns.

Biden defies polls, crushes his challengers in South Carolina

After the first official Democratic primary was moved from New Hampshire to South Carolina—the state that revived Joe Biden’s presidential candidacy after a strong of losses and poor showings in the earlier states in 2020—the Biden Campaign invested heavily in the state to prove that his appeal among African American voters, a key component of the Democratic base, had not waned.

Polls such as the Emerson poll taken in early January showed that Biden had only around 69 percent of the vote. Five percent went to Dean Phillips, and three percent went to Marianne Williamson. A full 22 percent were “undecided.”

Fast forward one month, and what a different result. Biden took around 96 percent of the vote, and he increased his share of the Black vote by around 13 percent over his 2020 performance. Williamson was next with 2.1 percent, and Phillips, rather embarrassingly, placed third with 1.7 percent. Paired with New Hampshire, where Biden won a write in campaign, this demonstrated that the much-vaunted Democratic “insurgency” against the incumbent president has not materialized. Indeed, the mainstream narrative about lack of enthusiasm for Joe Biden appears to be dead wrong if you look at results, and not polls.

Following the win, Biden was on message with his “bottom up, middle out” economic message, and he thanked the voters of the state who first lifted him to the presidency.

“As I said four years ago, this campaign is for everyone who has been knocked down, counted out and left behind,” Biden said Saturday evening. “That is still true today. With more than 14 million new jobs and a record 24 straight months—two years—of the unemployment rate under 4%, including a record low unemployment rate for Black Americans, we are leaving no one behind.”

Have a great rest of your weekend—at least better than the one Dean Phillips is having. — Jay