The Week Ahead (10.29.23)

Mike Pence drops out of the presidential race. Photo: Ethan Miller / Getty Images

There are four stories I’m watching today which are likely to play out further this week.

Colorado challenge to Trump on the ballot

Donald Trump’s eligibility to appear on a state’s presidential ballot in 2024 will be tested for the first time in Colorado with a bench trial beginning on Monday. This suit, brought by the Citizens for Responsibility and Ethics in Washington (CREW), is the first of what may be several challenges in various states under Section 3 of the 14th Amendment, which bars insurrectionists and rebels against the United States, and those who aided or have given comfort to the enemies of our nation, from holding federal public office.

Much of the discussion about challenges under this section to Trump’s eligibility has centered around whether they should be brought in the first place. Irrespective of how we feel about that question, it is now officially moot because the courts, including almost certainly the Colorado Supreme Court and then the U.S. Supreme Court, will decide whether this section applies to Trump. Some key questions include whether the section was intended to apply to the presidency and whether courts have the power to keep Trump off the ballot at all, given that he has never been convicted of insurrection, and his impeachment on that ground failed in the Senate to result in a conviction.

Proponents argue that courts have an obligation to apply and honor the law (we can’t just ignore what the Constitution expressly says), and that a conviction on these grounds isn’t a prerequisite. A five-day bench trial is planned where there will be evidence and testimony proving that Trump is an insurrectionist and/or aided and gave comfort to the nation’s enemies, which in my view a judge could readily find with a preponderance of the evidence in favor. From there, it would go to the Colorado Supreme Court and, if upheld, then to the U.S. Supreme Court.

I have written about this question and the collision course we are on with Trump and the 14th Amendment in greater depth in The Big Picture substack, and you can take a deeper dive here.

Some hope for Ukrainian aid

As the House gets back to business under a new Speaker, one looming question is whether the U.S. will continue to provide critical aid to our ally, Ukraine, in its war against Russia. Newly-elected Speaker Mike Johnson has voted consistently against Ukrainian aid, but he has recently signaled a more hawkish, anti-Russia stance and offered some hope on the question of aid.

Supporters of Ukraine have been deeply worried about the election of Johnson and whether he would tank any chances of further funding. But since his election, Johnson’s statements have moderated considerably, and he has even signaled that he considers it a priority.

“Now, we can’t allow Vladimir Putin to prevail in Ukraine, because I don’t believe it would stop there, and it would probably encourage and empower China to perhaps make a move on Taiwan,” Johnson said to Fox’s Sean Hannity. “We have these concerns. We’re not going to abandon them.”

His preference, however, would be to split Ukraine funding off from funding Israel. The White House has set forth a request for $106 billion in aid to both plus Taiwan, knowing that if Ukraine were left out of the package, opponents in the House would have an easier time tanking that aid. Most Republicans and the Democrats in Congress favor further aid to Ukraine to stop Russian aggression, so it will be a high stakes battle to push the measure past the pro-Russian members within the House GOP.

Unions continue to progress on key contracts

The United Auto Workers have reached agreement with the second of the big three U.S. automakers, Stellantis, on a new contract. It has similar wage hikes and strike rights as the UAW agreement with Ford. Meanwhile, talks between SAG-AFTRA and the studios continued through the weekend, raising hopes that a deal could be imminent.

Once the agreement between Ford and the UAW was signed, it was really just a matter of time before the other big two U.S. automakers came around to similar terms. The new contract gives a 25 percent wage hike to workers, bringing the average pay for a 40-hour week to $84,000 a year. The automakers worry that the additional labor costs will make them less competitive compared to non-union manufacturers with plants in the U.S., including Toyota, Tesla and Honda. The union argues that labor is a fairly small part of costs and that the automakers’ profits justify the wage hikes.

Mike Pence is out

Mike Pence suspended his presidential campaign on Saturday, making the surprise announcement at a gathering of prominent Jewish Republicans. His doomed effort to capture his party’s nomination ran into a wall of resistance from the base, which still blames him for Trump not being able to overturn the results of the 2020 election. The number of viable candidates to take on Trump, who leads the pack considerably, continues to dwindle, with Sen. Tim Scott now struggling as well to gain traction.

Pence was never really a serious contender for the nomination, despite what he may have believed was still possible within the GOP. But his announcement does change one important consideration: whether ex-president Trump can attack him publicly, now that he is no longer a candidate competing for the same office. In her gag order, which is under appeal and which she suspended pending appeal, Judge Tanya Chutkan acknowledged that Mike Pence stood in a different category than other witnesses because he was also campaigning. She had allowed Trump to criticize Pence, but only so long as his attacks did not touch upon Pence’s role in the criminal prosecution.

Now that Pence is not seeking the approval of MAGA voters, he may be less burdened by the idea of testifying against their Dear Leader. It remains to be seen whether Pence will be fully forthcoming and truthful as a witness. If he is, it could spell real trouble for the ex-president. Pence is many things, but he is not perceived as a liar. And his contemporaneous notes of his conversations with and about his former boss, directly mentioned twice in the indictment, will be of great interest and value at trial.

Have a great Sunday, and I’ll see you back here tomorrow morning.

Jay