The Week Ahead (11.12.23)

Trump is growing increasingly unhinged. Photograph: L.E. Baskow / Reuters/Reuters

There are five stories I’m watching as we head into this week. Two of them are about our political gridlock (both near and long term), and three of them are about Trump and how unhinged he is becoming (advance apologies).

But I promise, the final story on Trump carries some positive news.

The GOP-controlled House barrels into further dysfunction

Last week, I wrote about how the new Speaker, Mike Johnson (R-LA), faced many of the same challenges and was already exhibiting much of the same weaknesses as McCarthy. Prior to his ouster, McCarthy had led a series of failed efforts to move basic legislation through his own party to the House floor. Ultimately he had to seek Democratic votes to pass a continuing resolution (CR) to fund the government, and that was his undoing.

Johnson has already launched two failed attempts to move budget bills to fund transportation and financial services through his own conference. And now, his newest proposal is facing serious headwinds and may not even pass his own party. It certainly won’t pass the Senate.

Johnson has proposed a “laddered” CR that will fund part of the government through January 19 and the rest through February 2. This in effect would give Johnson two chances to shut down the government over the budget, one time in part and the second time in full. The Democratically-controlled Senate predictably has no interest in anything but a standard, “clean” CR, not a tiered approach that 1) has never been attempted, and 2) would probably lead to more chaos and shutdowns, not fewer.

Members of his own party have already stated that the staggered plan was “politically DOA” because it lacked Democratic support. Two of his own party have already signaled that they won’t support it because it doesn’t cut anything from the budget. And Sen. Patty Murray (D-WA), who is known for running a very tight appropriations ship, called the plan “the craziest, stupidest thing I’ve ever heard of.”

Speaker Johnson insists on moving ahead anyway.

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Trump demands cameras in the courtroom

In a surprise move, Trump has come out strongly in favor of televising his federal trial for conspiring to overturn the 2020 election. In a five page brief filed with the court, Trump claimed, “Every person in America, and beyond, should have the opportunity to study this case firsthand and watch as, if there is a trial, President Trump exonerates himself of these baseless and politically motivated charges.” Trump joins several media companies who have filed motions to open the proceedings to cameras.

Federal rules weigh against televised proceedings in federal court. The worry, as prosecutors have argued in this case, is that this will pose risks to the trial, including intimidation of witnesses and jurors.

Some legal observers have pointed out that Trump probably doesn’t really want a televised trial, but has come out in favor of one in order to complain about it when his request is denied and underscore his point that he is being silenced. The judge will rule on the matter shortly, but most experts agree that she isn’t inclined to let in the cameras due to how explosive the case already is and how many threats already exist.

Trump goes all-in on bashing and deporting immigrants

This next story is rather terrifying, so deep breath here. The New York Times reported on statements made by former president Trump, at political rallies and in interviews, that he intends to take an extremist position on immigration. This would be like his first term, but on steroids: conducting sweeping raids, rounding up the undocumented, detaining them in camps, deporting people by the millions, eliminating due process hearings, ending humanitarian waivers, canceling the visas of foreign students who protested against Israel, restricting legal migration, reinstating the Muslim ban, and refusing asylum claims on grounds migrants allegedly carry infectious diseases. He even plans to end birthright citizenship for children born to undocumented parents.

If Congress refuses to fund these operations, Trump plans to divert funds from the military budget to accomplish his goals. Leading the charge is white supremacist Stephen Miller, the architect behind Trump’s immigration policies in his first term, including family separation.

The Biden White House has roundly condemned these plans. And civil rights organizations are busily mobilizing communities, especially Latino voters, who would be most directly impacted by a return of these policies. They are also preparing for legal challenges should Trump be reelected and these plans go into effect.

The stakes for America, which has been from its inception a nation of immigrants built on pluralism and democracy, are grave, indeed. Better that we know now and can begin to rally voters against his efforts.

New York moves to counter the North Carolina gerrymander

Republicans in North Carolina, after court-approved district lines resulted in a 7-7 split between the parties in the 2022 election, have created new gerrymandered district lines for the 2024 election that are the most egregious in the nation. They did so with the blessing of the newly conservative North Carolina Supreme Court, which flipped from a liberal to an anti-democratic majority and voted to undo its own decision on district lines, just a year after elections were held. The new map will nearly certainly result in a loss of at least three Democratic House seats and threatens a fourth. With both the state’s Supreme Court and the U.S. Supreme Court washing their hands of the question of “political” gerrymanders, there is no viable legal path forward to challenge the lines. Only a constitutional amendment establishing an independent redistricting commission, as we saw in Michigan and as we may see in Ohio next election, can undo this North Carolina map.

That’s why what’s happening in New York this coming week has drawn national attention. As Politico reported, on Wednesday, a court will hear arguments whether New York should be allowed, like North Carolina was, to redraw district maps mid-decade. That redrawing could lead to an aggressive gerrymander by the Democrats with as many as six seats now held by the Republicans redrawn to favor Democrats.

There is a strong and valid question whether Democrats should fight North Carolina’s fire with its own aggressive political gerrymander. Democrats point out that their maps would still be drawn by an independent redistricting commission, but this is a something of a straw-man argument: If the commissioners fail to agree on a map, as they almost certainly will, that kicks it to the state legislature, which is controlled by Democrats. Proponents of an aggressive gerrymander argue that Democrats shouldn’t unilaterally disarm when the Republicans are getting away with what’s happening in North Carolina and should strike back if they can. Opponents argue that we lose the moral high ground if we do exactly what the Republicans do when given the opportunity. The proponents of a counterstrike appear to have won the argument so far in New York.

Media is beginning to report on Trump’s gaffes and mental lapses

I promised you some good news at the end here. The New York Times and Washington Post have both run stories now about Trump’s multiple verbal slips during recent rallies, pointing out that this is weakening one of his strongest attacks: Biden’s age.

These are more than just his usual “freewheeling” style. Even as Trump mocks Biden’s physical appearances and speech patterns, “Trump has had a string of unforced gaffes, garble and general disjointedness that go beyond his usual discursive nature,” wrote the Times. After earlier pretending to be Biden getting Idaho and Iowa mixed up, Trump thanked supporters in Sioux City, Iowa—by calling their city Sioux Falls, which is in South Dakota. An aide had to correct him. In recent weeks, he’s told his own followers not to vote and claimed to have defeated President Obama in an election.

His challengers, including Gov. Ron DeSantis, have grabbed onto this as a campaign issue. “It’s sad to see,” DeSantis said. “It’s just a different guy.” Nikki Haley has mocked Trump lately for getting his world leaders mixed up, including saying that President Kim of North Korea leads 1.4 billion people, who are Chinese. Trump also confused the presidents of Turkey and Hungary in his speeches.

The attack ads are coming as well. Both the DeSantis and the Biden campaigns have produced compilations of the gaffes, missteps and ramblings that show a man presumably in significant cognitive decline.

Trump’s mental decline is only likely to accelerate from here, and the attack ads are probably going to write themselves.

On that fine note, have a terrific rest of your Sunday!

Jay

(Correction: Sioux Falls is in South Dakota, not Idaho. Darned South Dakota has been messing me up lately!)