The Week Ahead

Speaker Kevin McCarthy speaks to reporters on the day of his second budget surrender. Photo by Drew Angerer/Getty Images)

Good morning! Today we find ourselves back from the shutdown brink, but with continued uncertainty over Speaker Kevin McCarthy’s future. In other words, we’re right where we expected to be at this time.

Democrats to the rescue, as anticipated

Last Sunday, I wrote in The Week Ahead:

In the Problem Solvers Caucus, 31 Democrats have joined with 31 Republicans to present an alternative continuing resolution to fund the government through the second week of January with the top-line budget number that was agreed to earlier. McCarthy may wind up with few options but that one, or the Senate proposal offered by Chuck Schumer, meaning he must (gasp!) work with the Democrats to fund the government, just as he had to before.

Yesterday, this proved correct. The proposal that McCarthy finally allowed to come to the floor, with just hours to go before the government would have had to shut down for lack of funds, was essentially the Senate proposal less aid for Ukraine. That continuing resolution buys 45 days, during which time the Senate and the majority in the House will push for that aid to be reinstated.

I have long believed McCarthy was always going to go back to the deal he struck in May, which represents a point of political equilibrium. Hardliners would insist on their pound of flesh, but Democrats also would not budge, which meant either that a shutdown was going to happen or McCarthy would cut a deal. The only questions were 1) how much pain he would cause the economy in arriving back where he started, and 2) would he lose his job as a result.

Thankfully, the pain question resolved short of a damaging government shutdown. Now let’s look at the lose-his-job question.

Challenge to McCarthy’s speakership

The House Freedom Caucus and right wing agitators like Rep. Matt Gaetz (R-FL) now face a critical test of their own faltering power. Their ace has always been to file a motion to vacate the chair should McCarthy cut a deal with the Democrats. Now that he’s done so, quite notably relying on more Democratic votes than Republican ones to get his funding bill across the finish line, McCarthy has now twice dared his detractors to unseat him. And some of them are rumbling about next steps.

“You can’t form a coalition of more Democrats than you have Republicans who you’re supposed to be the leader of, and not think that there’s going to be serious, serious fallout,” said Rep. Matt Rosendale (R-MT), confirming separately that discussions have begun to oust McCarthy.

But many of his supporters want the far-right to fish or cut their MAGA baiting. “I don’t think he’s lost any strength,” said the head of the powerful Rules Committee, Tom Cole (R-OK), of McCarthy. “But if someone wants to do this, just come on. I’m tired of talking about this fight.”

Perhaps McCarthy has finally realized that the extremists can’t really get rid of him because no one in their right mind would want that job or could ever gather enough support to form a majority. “They didn’t have a candidate last time, they don’t have a candidate this time. None of the people that would vote against him have the guts to run against him,” remarked Rep. Cole.

To my mind, the MAGA right absolutely needs a punching bag in order to seem effective. It’s easy to hurl insults and garbage from the side. But give them the actual reins, and they’ll drive the carriage into a ditch.

No one in that faction has the political experience or capacity to lead the GOP in the House. The best the party has is McCarthy—and he’s gotten nothing done and has lost every budget fight he faced.

One last point before we move on. There’s an open question of whether any Democrats should help keep McCarthy in power by voting against the motion to vacate. Minority Leader Hakeem Jeffries (D-NY) has kept his cards very close on this. It is better in my view—shared by former Speaker Nancy Pelosi—that Democrats let the Republicans sort out their infighting and not get involved. There would be landmines everywhere the minute a few Democrats try to play powerbroker for the GOP, for example.

If the GOP wants to remove McCarthy as Speaker and plunge the party into another series of leadership votes, that is their right, foolish as it may be. If they cannot find a new leader, that would drive home the point further to voters that the GOP is in total collapse. And if they elect someone even more extreme than McCarthy, that could result in a shutdown in another 45 days or another stinging budget defeat. Same trap, different leader doesn’t sound like a winning plan.

A plea deal in Georgia

I will write more about this almost certainly this week, but it’s worth noting that the first plea deal has come down in the Georgia RICO case around January 6. Scott Hall, a bail bondsman, has taken a deal with no prison time and a small fine, no doubt in exchange for significant cooperation with Fani Willis’s office. This is a big get for Willis and should be sending shudders through the remaining defendants.

Hall was involved in the scheme in Coffee County, Georgia to illegally access election machine data. Defendant Sidney Powell was also deeply involved in this plot, so her laundry is about to get aired.

Hall also had an hour-long phone call with defendant Jeffrey Clark, who recently lost his motion to transfer the case to federal court. I’ve always wondered what these two men talked about, though I strongly suspected it was something quite illegal. We’ll find out now that Hall is cooperating.

If I were Sidney Powell’s lawyer, I would be advising her to take a plea quickly and agree to cooperate. The longer she waits, the less valuable her cooperation will be. Ditto for all the other RICO defendants.

It seems it’s time to fish or cut MAGA bait down in Georgia, too.

Have a great weekend, and I’ll see you back here tomorrow!

Jay