The Week Ahead

Could it really be the week? That’s what legal experts are starting to wonder as they sift through the tea leaves around a possible federal indictment of ex-president Donald Trump.

That’s one the stories I’ve got my eye on for the week ahead. Let’s take a look at that and a few others.

Indictment watch

Jack Smith’s federal grand jury hasn’t convened since May 8. That means that, for nearly a month now, there have been no new testifying witnesses in the case, while things have gone fairly quiet at the Justice Department. This signals to me that an indictment decision is likely already underway—in the form of a prosecution memo being prepared by Smith’s team then reviewed by Attorney General Merrick Garland. Such a process usually take a few weeks in a complex or high political stakes case.

Now there are news reports that Smith’s grand jury is set to reconvene this week. The obvious (but not necessarily only) conclusion is that they are getting set for a final presentation and to deliberate. Or, they could be getting set to hear new evidence or witnesses.

The charges, should they be filed, will likely cover two main questions: 1) Did Donald Trump willfully retain top secret and other classified documents without authority to do so, and 2) Did Trump obstruct the investigation and attempts to recover those documents?

Stay tuned.

Tapes, tapes, tapes

Last week I discussed how a tape had emerged, from a meeting in July of 2021, that appeared to take the legs out from under Trump’s best legal defenses around “declassification.” On that tape, Trump apparently can be heard informing others in the meeting that he was in possession of a secret plan to attack Iran, but that it remained classified and he wasn’t authorized to show it to them. This would tend to show that Trump knew and understood the rules around declassification, and that all of his present claims around having declassified everything “just by thinking about it” are as bogus as they sound.

Then, yesterday, the New York Times revealed that yet another tape exists that might be even more problematic for the former president. One of Trump’s lawyers, Evan Corcoran, apparently made a lengthy, cover-his-ass audio recording that documented his monthlong effort to search for and return classified document to the Justice Department from Mar-a-Lago. The audio file is detailed, narrative in form, and something that Jack Smith now has in his possession. Smith had to sue to obtain it, arguing successfully that the crime-fraud exception to the attorney-client privilege applied in this case and that Corcoran’s workproduct in the form of this audio memo was fair game.

That is really terrible news for the ex-president and demonstrates the dangers of using your attorney to further your criminal obstruction.

Drag gets a longer runway

A Trump-appointed federal judge in Tennessee has struck down that state’s drag ban after a two day trial. He ruled that the law was substantially overbroad and unconstitutionally vague, and therefore violated drag artists’ rights under the First Amendment. He also indicated that the law was motivated by animus toward drag performers and encouraged discriminatory enforcement.

This was an important test case, not only because a conservative jurist sided with plaintiffs, but because there are copycat bills popping up elsewhere, including in Texas where a similar vague and probably unconstitutional drag ban recently passed, and in Florida where they are trying to ban LGBTQ+ identity and gender affirming care in nearly all contexts.

The ruling was a welcome kick-off to Pride month. The case will be appealed, and we are waiting to hear reaction from state lawmakers and around the country to the ruling.

The Ukrainian counter-offensive is near

For months, Ukrainian forces have been training on the use of the many weapons systems that the Western allies have provided them in their war against Russia. The fighting in Bakhmut now appears to have been a way for Ukraine to force Russia to expend valuable time and resources capturing a strategically unimportant city, and for the rest of the Ukrainian military to gain time to prepare to hit back. And now, President Zelenskyy says Ukraine is ready.

A great deal rides on the success of this counter-offensive. Ukraine needs to demonstrate that it can make territorial gains with all of the support that it has been provided and that the war isn’t going to simply bog down for years longer. If Russia can be routed from its positions and Ukraine can seize back some land, then Ukraine will be in a far better position should ceasefire negotiations begin later.

On the other hand, Putin is counting on his forces, who remain defensively dug in, to hold out long enough to wear down Western resolve and support for continued military assistance. He is also no doubt hoping Donald Trump or other GOP extremists return to power and reverse course on Ukraine, allowing him to keep the lands he illegally invaded and annexed.

In writing the above, I noticed that the stories seemed to share one thing in common: They all indicated that we might soon see the start of a historic summer of justice and hope, as the rule of law and the forces of democracy hit back hard. Here’s hoping it comes to pass.

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