Good morning! Sorry to hit you with two faces of evil on a Sunday, but the good news is that they are fighting each other! I hope meanwhile you’re relaxing and catching up on much needed “you” time with folks you care about, including yourself.
Here are some of the stories I am watching for the week ahead. In happy developments, it looks like we dodged some bullets this past week, that the bad guys continue to get caught, and that nothing truly awful is heading our way in the coming days (knocks on wood).
Mifepristone case
In an unsigned order, the Supreme Court left in place and for approved use the abortion medication mifepristone. This is a temporary stay pending final outcome of the case, but many observers see it as a good indication of which way the Court is ultimately leaning. After all, if the radicals on the Court really wanted to screw with abortion services nationwide, this was their big chance to do so. But the idea of giving doctors who haven’t yet suffered injury any standing, or giving single federal judges the right to undo a whole agency’s scientific review and expertise, may have proven a bridge too far, at least for five and possibly up to seven of the justices. All we know is that Mullahs—I mean, Justices—Thomas and Alito publicly dissented from the decision. We don’t know if others such as Gorsuch or Barrett joined them silently.
There is a great deal of attention on Justice Alito’s dissenting opinion, which has legal experts slack-jawed at its inconsistencies and bizarre attack upon the Biden administration, which Alito implied would not have obeyed the lower federal court’s order. That is quite the statement, and it has no place in our jurisprudence. Alito has proven himself to be nothing more than a chaos agent with a sharp political agenda, all while Thomas has been revealed as an unethical, lying jurist on the take. It’s no wonder that the public’s view of the Court is at an all time low.
The case will now proceed, which means it will remain in the headlines through the next few months and that SCOTUS likely will have another look at it next year if not sooner. That also means medical abortion will become a campaign issue—something the GOP would definitely prefer it not be.
A big test for Speaker McCarthy
Speaker Kevin McCarthy (R-CA) wants to bring his budget plan, which he strapped like dynamite to a bill raising the debt ceiling, to a floor vote in the House this week. The plan slashes federal spending back to 2022 levels, meaning it would undo many of the Biden Administration’s key budget victories, including money for veterans, climate change, and IRS enforcement. It isn’t clear whether McCarthy currently has the 218 votes he needs, with less-extreme members like Rep. Nancy Mace (R-SC) worried it goes too far while the far right, including Rep. George Santos (R-NY), claim it doesn’t go far enough. McCarthy can only lose four votes without it going down to defeat.
My guess is that the so-called “moderates” will cave again, as they have before, so that McCarthy isn’t embarrassed and they can claim a win. But the short-term political gain, which they hope will force Biden to the negotiating table, comes at a steep long-term cost. For example, according to an analysis by the Veterans Administration, the current plan hurts veteran healthcare access, increasing wait times and costs and threatening homelessness for many. This makes for effective Democratic political ads in the 20 or so swing districts that will decide control of the House in 2024.
Even if passed, the bill may not achieve what it sets out to do, i.e. bring Biden to the negotiating table on the debt ceiling. The White House is more than willing to talk budget proposals, but not while the GOP holds the economy hostage in such a way. And in any event, the entire exercise is little more than political stunt by McCarthy, because he knows that the bill will go exactly nowhere in the Senate. The only reasons it matters to anyone is because the GOP has threatened to blow up the nation’s credit over it—despite having voter consistently for “clean” debt ceiling raises, all while the Trump budget added $2 trillion to the deficit in the form of tax breaks for the wealthy and for corporations.
Voting machine data breach
CNN reported that District Attorney Fani Willis has in her possession evidence that Trump allies planned to use a breach of voting data from a rural county in Georgia to justify the seizure of voting machines and decertify Georgia’s Senate race runoff, won by Sen. Jon Ossoff in January of 2021. Two individuals hired by Sidney Powell actually exchanged text messages about the plot.
“Here’s the plan. Let’s keep this close hold,” texted Jim Penrose, a former NSA official, to Doug Logan, CEO of Cyber Ninjas—yes, the same outfit that performed the “audit” of the Arizona election. “We only have until Saturday to decide if we are going to use this report to try to decertify the Senate run-off election or if we hold it for a bigger moment,” Penrose wrote.
Legal experts believe this could add to Willis’ case, including potential racketeering charges. Willis has subpoenaed individuals involved in the breach, including the two men who carried it out who later communicated with Penrose and Logan.
DeSantis is DeSinking
He’s not yet officially announced, and at this rate he might not even do it. Gov. Ron DeSantis continues to try to bank to the right of Trump on abortion, attacks on “woke” America (whatever that means), and on the economy, but his message is falling flat. Meanwhile Trump is picking up endorsements, including eleven Florida Republican representatives who have now sided with Trump over someone who used to be their colleague in the House.
Apparently, DeSantis made few if any friends while a Congressman, which fits with his image of being something of a stand-offish, anti-social, and awkward man. A PAC affiliated with Trump released a brutally effective and rather unforgettable “Pudding Fingers” ad last week that warned DeSantis to keep his “dirty fingers” off of seniors’ benefits like Social Security and Medicare.
It isn’t clear at this time what DeSantis will do, but he’d better do something quickly to hit back, or the damage will be too deep before the race has even officially begun. New polling shows Trump leaping out ahead 48 to 24, as his attacks on DeSantis go unanswered and Trump basks in the glow of being a victim of Democratic persecution in Manhattan. (Curiously, the same polling shows DeSantis has a better chance of beating Biden.)
DeSantis still thinks this primary can be won on policy, but the GOP these days is about aesthetics. On this front, DeSantis has few if any cards to play. His latest attacks on the home of Mickey Mouse now just seem desperate and short-sighted. But if he’s trying to out-mean Trump, he will fail, and badly.
Thoughts on the GOP presidential primary
As between Trump or DeSantis, there are solid reasons to believe either would be worse than the other if elected. Trump is known quantity: an autocratic megalomaniac who is also a bumbler who can be manipulated via his fragile ego. DeSantis by contrast is a cunning and effective, but less-known, fascist. He lacks Trump’s charisma but makes up for it through political terrorism. Neither believes in democracy, and both would empower the worst of Christo-Nationalist extremism while wreaking havoc upon our institutions.
The best outcome for the Democrats would be to see a protracted fight, but it’s not clear that DeSantis is up for that. Right now, it appears Trump has the inside lane and will be the nominee, even as a twice-impeached and multiply-“indicated,” criminal defendant.
The good news is that Biden, the presumptive Democratic nominee, has beaten Trump before. Most of the all-important battleground states (eight of them—PA, WI, MI, GA, AZ, NV, NC and NH) are leaning Democratic in such a re-match. And the issue of abortion has fired up the Democratic base among women and young voters. So I remain reasonably and cautiously optimistic that we would see a result similar to or better than 2020.
As you look ahead to 2024, take a deep breath, imagine positive outcomes, and point your own personal moral compass in that direction. We achieve a better future together when we don’t allow fear to cause our steps to falter.
Have a great Sunday!
Jay
As Jay says, keep your fingers crossed. I would add VOTE!! when the time comes and get your friends and family to do the same!
Thank you for ending with upbeat words of wisdom! You always make me feel hopeful!