The Week Ahead

We’ve got continuing fallout, along with what I call “permission structures” forming inside the GOP, over the Trump national defense documents case; hints of more investigations and of uncharged individuals from Special Counsel Jack Smith; a high stakes visit to China by Secretary of State Anthony Blinken; and more pushback on extremism from our federal and state courts. Let’s review.

Permission structures

GOP officials continue to stake out positions on Trump’s federal indictment under the Espionage Act and obstruction of justice charges. When high profile officials do this, it provides cover for others, particularly candidates who likely will be asked questions about Trump by the press. We’re essentially now seeing two camps: one condemning Trump and the other blasting the Justice Department, with the GOP presidential primary hopefuls borrowing a bit from each.

Trump’s allies in Congress are advancing a number of bad faith arguments under which the MAGA base is rallying. These include the argument that the documents were actually secure inside a Mar-a-Lago bathroom, which has a door that can be locked. (Never mind that they lock from the inside…) Other arguments include that Joe Biden and Hillary Clinton weren’t prosecuted for illegally possessing classified documents. This is true, but unlike Trump they did not willfully retain those documents and then lie to investigators about it. And that’s what Trump is being charged with.

Trump’s critics, including former White House officials John Bolton, William Barr, and John Kelly, are warning that Trump faces serious legal peril, that the charges would have been brought by any reasonable attorney general regardless of party, and that Trump has himself to blame for defying the government like a petulant child.

The result is that you have candidates like Mike Pence saying he can’t defend what Trump did, but that the system is over politicized. Gov. Ron DeSantis is not saying much at all about what Trump did, but he still decries the “weaponization” of the Justice Department. These are a good example of a party that wants to rid itself of Trump but can’t find a way to do it without losing his base of supporters.

Thoughts and prayers, fellas.

A tantalizing clue

Special Counsel Jack Smith moved for a protective order in the Trump documents case, which makes sense for a case like this where there are many national defense and other classified documents at issue. The motion proposes that Trump be blocked from releasing any classified documents that he will be shown during the course of the trial. It doesn’t appear that Trump’s lawyers will contest that motion.

Within that protective order motion, however, Smith dropped a bit of a bombshell: The documents “include information pertaining to ongoing investigations” which could be used to further cases against “uncharged individuals,” according to the brief. It isn’t at all clear what Smith meant by that. He could be referring to the other grand jury’s investigation into January 6 and efforts to overturn the election, but it’s hard to see how that would overlap with these documents. Or, he could be referring to other as-yet unknown investigations relating to mishandling or even dissemination of the documents at issue.

There has been speculation around why Smith made reference in the Florida indictment to acts of disclosure by Trump. These included Trump waving national defense information in front of third parties who were unauthorized to see them. But curiously Smith did not charge on those acts. The instances mentioned took place in New Jersey, so it is at least theoretically possible there is another investigation underway there to determine whether Trump should be charged for unlawful dissemination of national defense information, but in that jurisdiction instead of Florida.

At this time, however, it’s all speculation, given some life by a sole reference in the motion for a protective order. Not enough to get too excited about yet, but worth mentioning.

Blinken goes to China

Secretary of State Blinken arrived Sunday in China on his first-ever official visit, and the first visit by a U.S. Secretary of State to China in five years. His prior planned visit had to be scuttled over the Chinese balloon kerfuffle, so this is the rescheduled one.

There are not any expectations that Blinken’s two days of talks will produce breakthroughs on any of the many thorny issues between the two superpowers, from China’s support of Russia, to its abysmal human rights records in Xinjiang and suppression of democracy in Hong Kong, to the possibility of armed conflict over Taiwan. What the visit may produce, however, is a lowering of temperatures and an abatement of the risk of conflict through miscommunication or misunderstanding.

This shouldn’t be minimized, however. With Chinese and U.S. warships and aircraft having close encounters in the South China Sea, it may be just a matter of time before there is an incident. Military and state officials can reduce the risk of armed escalation by setting out more ground rules now and keeping lines of communication open.

Court wins against extremism

In two very red states—Indiana and Iowa—the courts have pushed back once again on the most extremist legislation regulating people’s bodily autonomy.

In Indiana, a federal court placed a temporary injunction on much of the state’s ban on gender affirming care for trans youth, stopping a law outlawing puberty blockers and hormones from taking scheduled effect July 1. Similar laws have now been blocked by courts in Alabama, Arkansas and Oklahoma.

In Iowa, a 3-3 divided Supreme Court, left in place a district court’s ruling in 2019 that the state’s 6-week ban on abortions was unconstitutional under state law. (One of the justices recused herself because her former firm represented an abortion clinic in the original case.) Iowa Gov. Kim Reynolds, a staunch advocate for stricter abortion laws, vowed to continue the fight to enact the ban.

I’m off tomorrow for the Juneteenth holiday and traveling back to New York from California. Have a great rest of your weekend, and I’ll see you back here on Tuesday.

Jay