Together and Alone

The presidential candidates offer stark contrasts in the “establishment” support from their respective parties.

Doug Mills/The New York Times

By now you’ve no doubt heard of the record-shattering fundraiser in New York City last night. It raised $26 million for President Biden’s reelection, more than Trump raised all last month. 

Joining Biden on stage were two former presidents, Bill Clinton and Barack Obama. They will be powerful surrogates for the Biden campaign, able to turn out big crowds on their own and motivate the base—a key factor in turning out African American voters whose support for Biden some fear may be softer than in 2020.

“President Obama will do all he can to support President Biden’s reelection,” said one senior advisor to Obama. “Our strategy will be based on driving impact, especially where and when his voice can help move the needle.”

Then there’s Donald Trump, who was also in New York but over on Long Island attending the wake of a slain police officer. “The police are the greatest people we have,” Trump said with his usual eloquence and profundity. “There’s nothing and there’s nobody like them. And this should never happen.”

It was hard to miss the irony of his statements about backing the police and “law and order” when he himself is a criminal defendant facing 88 felony counts and promises to pardon January 6 prisoners who violently attacked Capitol Police officers.

It also was hard to miss the contrast between one candidate, who attended a small event alone, and another who stood with the full-throated support of his predecessors. Trump has the backing of no former White House occupants; former president George W. Bush has not endorsed him, nor has former Vice President Dick Cheney. Even his own former VP, Mike Pence, has refused to do so.

In today’s piece, I’ll explore the sharp contrast between the unity and support we witnessed on stage last night—with one notable exception—and the increasing fracture we are seeing in the GOP between MAGA Republicans and traditional conservatives. That divide, should it continue to widen, has far-reaching implications for the November election.

Democrats united—mostly

When former president Obama spoke of Biden, he emphasized that this election was more than about saying no to Trump. He made the case that Biden has earned our votes.

“It’s not just the negative case against the presumptive nominee on the other side. It’s the positive case for somebody who’s done an outstanding job,” Obama declared. “We also have a positive story to tell about the future and that is something that Joe Biden has worked on, diligently, each and every day.”

That “each and every day” remark seems also to apply to Biden’s rigorous campaign schedule lately. Since scoring high marks for his State of the Union address in early March, Biden has visited eight swing states in 18 days, demonstrating the kind of vigor and energy needed to do the job of president. His campaign released an ad that mocked Trump’s schedule by comparison:

The radiant energy and presidential camaraderie of last night, along with a star-studded list of guests and a sold-out crowd at Radio City Music Hall, intended to drive home a message. As the New York Times noted,

The day’s events underscored a central dynamic of the race: Mr. Biden is campaigning with the force of the Democratic establishment behind his bid, as Mr. Trump stands largely alone.

And as the Washington Post noted,

Biden’s aides have sought to highlight that contrast as evidence that their campaign is rolling while Trump’s is foundering. The Biden team has announced plans to open more than 100 offices this month and has launched a $30 million spring advertising campaign in key states.

Gaza continues to drive impassioned protest and dissent

The evening was not without controversy. The war and deteriorating humanitarian situation in Gaza drew crowds of protestors outside the hall, continued accusations of complicity in genocide, and demands for a ceasefire. 

President Obama chastised protestors who disrupted the event with cries of “blood on your hands.” As they were escorted out of the hall by security, he snapped, “You can’t just talk and not listen. That’s what the other side does.”

During campaign events, Biden has taken a more conciliatory stance, however, sympathizing with the frustration and anger of pro-Palestinian protestors, while careful not to alienate Jewish voters who have faced increasing antisemitism and are invested in the safe return of the remaining hostages. 

Recently, there have been policy shifts at the highest levels that indicate the White House is losing patience with the Israeli government under Prime Minister Netanyahu. These include the recent U.S. abstention from a binding U.N. vote for a ceasefire, enabling its passage for the first time to the cheers of the delegates.

That may be too little and too late for Biden’s critics, but the move reportedly sent Netanyahu into a rage. He canceled an upcoming Israel delegation’s U.S. visit to discuss IDF’s planned invasion of Rafah, which is Gaza’s second largest city. The Biden administration has warned Israel against the invasion, fearing more devastating loss of human life.

Many progressives believe they are faced with a difficult choice this November.  They are being asked to support a president whose policies, in their view, have enabled the killing of tens of thousands of Palestinians, most of whom were innocent children. They are being told they need to vote for Biden anyway in order to stop the election of someone who would certainly be even worse. And while it might make cold, logical sense for the election, that’s not a recipe for an enthusiastic turnout. Third party candidates might also successfully siphon away support from disaffected anti-war voters. That could prove decisive in tight races, particularly in swing states like Michigan with a high Arab American population.

Republicans divided—largely.

While Democrats remain starkly divided over Gaza, divisions within the Republican Party run still deeper and strike at the very heart of what it means to be a Republican.

While Joe Biden stood with his democratic predecessors on stage, Trump doesn’t have the support of the sole living GOP former president, George W. Bush. Nor does he have the support of his own former vice president, Mike Pence.

Pence told Fox News on March 15, “It should come as no surprise that I will not be endorsing Donald Trump this year. During my presidential campaign, I made it clear that there were profound differences between me and President Trump on a range of issues.” He continued, “Donald Trump is pursuing and articulating an agenda that is at odds with the conservative agenda that we governed on during our four years. And that’s why I cannot in good conscience endorse Donald Trump.”

Pence isn’t alone in refusing to board the Trump train. Those warning about a second Trump presidency include his former Defense Secretaries Mark Esper and Jim Mattis, his former chief of staff John Kelly, the former chairman of the Joint Chiefs of Staff Mark Milley, and his former national security adviser John Bolton, to name a few.

Some choice quotes from his own folks.

• Esper: Trump is not “fit for office because he puts himself first, and I think anybody running for office should put the country first.”

• Mattis: “His use of the Presidency to destroy trust in our election and to poison our respect for fellow citizens has been enabled by pseudo political leaders whose names will live in infamy as profiles in cowardice.”

• Kelly: Trump is “a person that has no idea what America stands for and has no idea what America is all about.”

• Bolton: There will be “celebrations in the Kremlin” if Trump is elected in November, adding: “Putin thinks that he is an easy mark.”

Zero stars, indeed. If you were going to hire a chief executive, and his former direct reports gave you this feedback, you’d be insane to hire him. Yet here we are.

Liz Cheney opens an important front on Trump’s flank

The crowd in New York City got most of the press attention, but don’t sleep on this: Former Rep. Liz Cheney has begun the “big public gathering” stage of her anti-Trump crusade, and she can draw a crowd, too. She was in Des Moines, Iowa yesterday and filled a stadium of people hungry to hear her pro-democracy message.

That message is simple: Trump is a danger to our democracy.

“We know [Trump] tried once not to leave office, and he will have no incentive to guarantee a peaceful transfer of power and to leave office should he be elected again...

As frustrated as I know people get sometimes with policy disagreements you might have — and I certainly have policy disagreements with the Biden administration — I know the nation can survive bad policy. We can’t survive a president who is willing to torch the Constitution.”

In the 2022 midterms, Trump-aligned and endorsed candidates lost up and down the ballot because a significant number of Republican voters refused to check the box for them. These are the same voters—call them Haley voters, Cheney Republicans, moderate Republicans—who don’t feel at home in the new MAGA GOP, don’t relate to Trump at all, and want their party back. The precise size of this vote isn’t yet clear, but it is showing up in the 2024 primaries, and it was definitely a big factor in blunting the red wave in 2022.

It isn’t strictly necessary for these voters to cross party lines and vote for Biden, though some inevitably will. Undervotes for Trump or his favored MAGA candidates might be sufficient for them all to come up short against a more organized and motivated Democratic base and Democratic-leaning independents. 

In the coming months, both parties will be focusing on bringing their bases home. Many progressives who oppose Biden on Gaza today ultimately will hold their noses and vote for him, especially if a major ceasefire occurs and holds. And from now until the election, Biden will have strong and respected advocates and surrogates who are deep within the Democratic establishment pulling for him and turning out the base.

By contrast, Trump faces a growing backlash from the former GOP establishment, including traditional conservative leaders like Cheney who have little to lose and a lot to say. The extent and impact of that backlash could well prove the deciding factor in November.