Trumpster Fire

Donald Trump addressed a joint session of Congress last night. And yeah.

If you skipped Trump’s address to a joint session of Congress last night, you didn’t miss anything. No, really. Now you don’t have to get back 100 minutes of your life.

From all the commentary I digested following the speech, perhaps the most accurate was by his own niece, Mary Trump, who put it this way:

It is hard to put into words how I feel about tonight’s grotesque event. It was at once a travesty, a farce, and a dystopian exercise in mendacity, disinformation, and fascism. It was, if you will, a stunning and brazen display of American carnage.

Trump’s address was predictably chock full of culture war red meat for the base. The New York Times noted,

At times, Mr. Trump appeared to be giving one of his stump speeches from the campaign trail, as he railed against Mr. Biden’s immigration policies, support of transgender rights and “wokeness.”

“Wokeness is trouble. Wokeness is bad,” Mr. Trump said, without specifying what exactly he was referring to. “It’s gone. It’s gone.”

Trump didn’t need to specify what he is referring to, of course. In the eyes of the MAGA right, “wokeness” and its companion bogeyman “DEI” mean anyone who isn’t them—conservative, Christian, cis-straight and white.

As Democrats got hauled out, walked out, or held up signs in protest, Trump thumped his chest over his “unrelenting action” since taking office, including sending in Elon Musk to take a chainsaw to the federal workforce.

It wouldn’t be a Trump speech without a number of outrageous lies for the press to fact check, and I’ll discuss some whoppers below. But zooming out from the theatrics and the lies, Trump’s address was notably devoid of any substantive ideas, policies or even time spent discussing the biggest issues confronting his administration. The absence of any discussion whatsoever of these, other than to continue to blame Joe Biden for everything, reveals a weakness behind all that uncouth bravado and braggadocio.

And as recent polling indicates, that spells trouble ahead for Trump as voters—and particularly independents—signal that his brief honeymoon period is very much over.

The big lies

Trump lied, and water is wet. It’s not news, right?

I want to push back on the shoulder shrugs and long sighs over Trump’s practice of gish-galloping with lies until we’re too exhausted to care. It’s important not only to respond to as many of them as we can with the truth, but also to see what he is lying bigly about, as there is always a purpose behind his lies.

The big lies Trump told on Tuesday night include the following false statements, which the BBC fact checked along with the New York Times.

On the economy:

Lie: Trump inherited an “economic catastrophe” from Biden who let “egg prices get out of control”

Fact: Biden oversaw the best economic record of any president in recent memory, with steady GDP growth higher than any nation in the G7, low unemployment, tamed inflation and huge private investments into manufacturing.

Why: Trump is blaming Biden in order to explain falling consumer confidence, rising inflation, falling markets and flashing warning signs of a coming economic contraction. He is worried, with good reason, that he will be blamed for the coming downturn.

On DOGE cost savings

Lie: Trump claimed that DOGE had identified “hundreds of billions of fraud in federal spending.”

Fact: DOGE only claims $105 billion in cost savings, from a combination of canceled contracts, program savings and fraud. But this number itself is highly inflated. It has only shown evidence of $18.6 billion in savings, and it keeps having to delete some of its own claims as false. So far, it has actually not identified any fraud, despite making false and unsupported claims that, for example, social security benefits have been paid to people who are dead or 150 years old.

Why: Trump knows he needs to continue to justify DOGE’s work by claiming it is rooting out fraud, because the downsides to slashing and burning through the federal government are considerable and are costing him politically.

On Ukraine aid:

Lie: On U.S. aid to Ukraine, Trump claimed in his speech, “We've spent perhaps $350 billion… and they [Europe] have spent $100 billion. What a difference that is.”

Fact: According to calculations by the Kiel Institute, between January 2022 and the end of 2024, Europe as a whole spent $138.7 billion on Ukraine, while the US spent $119.7 billion.

Why: Trump needs to justify his plan to end all forms of aid, including military aid, to Ukraine by trying to convince Americans that we have put in far more than the Europeans. That isn’t remotely true either on an absolute level nor on a per capita level. But he needs to keep the lie going so that American voters feel aggrieved and go along with pulling the plug.

On his electoral victory:

Lie: Trump claimed, “The presidential election of Nov. 5 was a mandate like has not been seen in many decades.”

Fact: Joe Biden won by a far greater percentage of the popular vote in 2020 while winning the same swing states Trump recaptured. As Kenneth Vogel of the NYT noted,

He won the popular vote by 1.48%.

Biden won the popular vote in 2020 by 4.45%.

Obama won the popular vote in 2008 by 7.27%.

Why: Trump needs to claim a “mandate” in order to justify the massive assaults on the federal government, his seizure of Congressionally authorized funds, and his sweeping and unconstitutional executive orders. He claims that this is what the American people voted for, but in fact he received less than 50 percent of the votes cast.

Trump avoided the hard stuff

Apart from Trump’s attempts to “own the libs” and his penchant to lie about nearly everything, analysts noted that Trump actually offered scant guidance or specifics on many critical policy matters.

As the Times noted, Trump “did not unveil new policies, and devoted little time to the wars in Ukraine and Gaza, both of which Mr. Trump has vowed to end.” It added, “Mr. Trump also did not address another time-sensitive issue: how to prevent the government from shutting down next week.”

Nor did he address investor nervousness over the trade war he has begun with our closest trading partners, the anxiety produced by Musk’s federal wrecking ball, the hundreds of billions the GOP plans to cut from Medicaid and basic food programs, or how he intended to bring down soaring prices of things like eggs and, soon, basic goods like gasoline, groceries and cars.

He didn’t talk about how the U.S. appears to be taking a backseat in international leadership positions, nor what his “America First” philosophy really means for NATO, the U.N., world trade and our alliances and commitments around the world.

Without any specifics from the White House, uncertainty will continue to hang over all of this. And economic decisionmakers loathe few things more than uncertainty.

Trump used his 100 minutes to rile up his base, but to the rest of us and the world at large he offered nothing but more threats, fecklessness and weak leadership.

And that has already begun to take its toll.

Trump’s numbers are sliding fast

Most new presidents enjoy a “honeymoon” period where the public is willing to give them a chance to implement their ideas and support their efforts in doing so. Past presidents, including Obama and Biden, have seen approval rates in the high 50s and 60s during this period.

But Trump’s honeymoon is effectively over.

As Harry Enten of CNN reported,

Trump’s overall net approval & on the economy are "historically awful... weak, weak, weak” going into a 1st address to Congress.

He has the 2nd worst net approval rating (+1 pts) on record. Beating only himself (2017). His net approval on the economy (-4 pts) is the worst.

Indeed, Trump’s approval ratings have been on a downward slide since his inauguration. Here’s a chart from 538 showing how the average of his approval polls has looked over time:

Elliott Norris of 538 noted on the night of Trump’s big speech that “we added some new polls late this evening. [T]rump's job approval rating average at 538 is now net negative.” He then added, wryly, “what timing…”

But does Trump really care about his approval ratings now that he’s president? The answer is yes, of course he does; the man is obsessed with what others think of him.

But it is also the wrong question. The better question is, “Do other politicians, including within the GOP, care about his popularity?” The answer to this is also a resounding yes. Trump derives legitimacy and power from that perceived popularity. As more Americans turn against him, this will provide openings from critics, even within his own party, to push back against his agenda and policies. This is especially true in critical swing state districts where the GOP eventually will need less extreme Republicans to go along with very radical cuts to things like Medicaid.

If these GOP officials perceive Trump as increasingly unpopular, out of touch and out of control—especially by independents who, according to the latest SSRS poll, are now a full nineteen points disapproving of Trump—they could act in their own self interest, which we already know is their go to, and turn on him, too. While that may seem unlikely right now, it wouldn’t be so far fetched if the bottom fell out of the economy, inflation spiked badly, or Musk and his DOGE sled team broke something badly within a critical system like Social Security.

We’re less than 50 days in, and there’s a long way to go. But the direction of public opinion has got to be worrying many inside the White House, including Trump. We know this because Trump actually keeps lying about how popular he remains with voters while blaming everything bad that’s happening on Joe Biden.

We’ll see how long he can keep that up with the voters.