Two Lesser Known Wild Card Races Could Tip the Senate’s Balance of Power

Photos: Tom Williams (AP) / Hart Van Denburg (CPR News)

There has been much understandable attention on the four vulnerable Democratic senate seats (Nevada, Georgia, New Hampshire and Arizona, in present order of risk) and the “flippable five” Republican seats (Pennsylvania, Wisconsin, North Carolina, Florida, and Ohio). But there are two other races that political handicappers have been eyeing: Iowa and Colorado. This is especially true in light of recent events. Let’s take a peek into why.

Senator Chuck Grassley (R-IA) Is in the Fight of His Life

For four decades, Sen. Grassley has coasted to victory in Iowa. The closest any challenger has ever come is a daunting 24 points back in 2016. But this year, Grassley, who is now 89 years old, finds himself underwater in his favorables and facing a three point race, according to the latest Des Moines Register / Mediacom poll. That his unfavorables outpace his favorables for the first time in the history of the poll is telling, with 44 percent approving and 48 percent disapproving. And he may not be able to swing this upward from here: 60 percent of respondents called Grassley’s age a concern, while just 34 percent deemed it an asset.

The poll results show a five point move toward his Democratic challenger, Admiral Mike Franken, since July. Nearly all of the move can be attributed to independents, who now back Franken over Grassley by 11 points, 46 percent to 35 percent. Back in July, those numbers were basically even with 38 percent backing Franken and 37 percent backing Grassley. There are still plenty of independents who remain undecided.

“It says to me that Franken is running a competent campaign and has a shot to defeat the seemingly invincible Chuck Grassley — previously perceived to be invincible,” said J. Ann Selzer of Selzer & Co., which conducted the poll for the Register. The poll of 804 Iowa adults, including 620 likely voters, was conducted Oct. 9-12.

The same economic uncertainties and high inflation that have dogged Democratic incumbents around the country have hurt Grassley, especially when coupled with GOP extremism on the question of abortion. Grassley’s often incoherent or bizarre tweets have further added to a sense that he should retire before voters give him another six year term, which would make him 95 by the time it’s over.

This poll is considered by many as the “gold standard” poll because of the Register’s long history of polling within Iowa, which kicks off the primary season. It’s at least worrisome news for Grassley and the GOP; an upset loss in Iowa very likely would put the Senate majority out of reach for the party. Still, Grassley holds a narrow lead even under this poll, which he hopes will carry him to victory on Election Day.

Sen. Michael Bennett (D-CO) Faces an Appealing GOP Moderate

For all the candidate quality problems the GOP faces with its senate picks (extremists Herschel Walker, Mehmet Oz, JD Vance, and Blake Masters, to name a few), the guy running in Colorado against incumbent Sen. Michael Bennett isn’t part of it. Joe O’Dea is campaigning as a centrist, a businessman, and an anti-Trump Republican, something that has made the Colorado race a bit worrisome for the Democrats. Bennett has held a consistent high single digit lead in the polls, but an upset is still possible if the Democratic base doesn’t turn out in force in November or if the polls are undercounting O’Dea’s support.

To court the middle more aggressively, O’Dea recently went on national television and took on Trump directly. “I’m going to actively campaign against Donald Trump and make sure that we’ve got four or five really great Republicans right now,” O’Dea told CNN’s “State of the Union.” O’Dea mentioned Gov. Ron DeSantis (R-FL), former UN ambassador Nikki Haley, and Sen. Tim Scott (R-SC) as GOP candidates who could win two consecutive terms as president.

As you might imagine, this challenge didn’t sit well with the former president, who attacked O’Dea directly on his “Truth” social media platform:

There's this RINO character in the Great State of Colorado, Joe O'Dea, that is running against the incumbent Democrat for the United States Senate, who is having a good old time saying that he wants to “distance” himself from President Trump, and other slightly nasty things. He should look at the Economy, Inflation, Energy Independence, defeating ISIS, the Strongest EVER Border, Great Trade Deals, & much more, before he speaks. MAGA doesn't Vote for stupid people with big mouths. Good luck Joe!

(The irony of Trump declaring that “MAGA doesn’t vote for stupid people with big mouths” is not lost on anyone.)

If MAGA faithful in Colorado were to sour on O’Dea from this exchange, or otherwise lose interest in the race and not turn up at the polls, O’Dea’s chances of winning would fall dramatically. Political observers are now interested to learn whether O’Dea’s gamble—that standing up to Trump would win him moderate support—succeeds or backfires badly. 

O’Dea responded to Trump’s insults with a shrug. “I'm a construction guy, not a politician. President Trump is entitled to his opinion but I'm my own man and I'll call it like I see it. Another Biden, Trump election will tear this country apart."