In addition to my regular political / legal column, I am posting a daily summary of events in Ukraine on my Facebook page. Because the platform isn’t consistent about feeding content to my followers, I will reprint it here on occasion, especially on days where I’m not publishing my regular column.
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Russia's war in Ukraine has entered its third week. Despite committing essentially all of its gathered forces to attack, Russia thus far has achieved none of its key objectives. This failure is despite thousands killed, two million made refugees, and whole city populations forced to take shelter, without heat, power, food, or water and under continuous aerial bombardment. Russia has suffered high troop losses, with potentially 6,000 killed in action since the start of Ukraine invasion, according to a U.S. official.
There is now well-documented evidence of war crimes being committed by the Russian military. In the city of Mariupol, Russian bombing completely destroyed a maternity hospital. Video of the horrific aftermath of the strike was shared by President Zelenskyy on his social media. “Destroyed hospitals. Destroyed schools, churches, houses. And all the people killed. All the children killed,” Mr. Zelensky said in a speech. “The air bomb on the maternity hospital is the final proof. Proof that the genocide of Ukrainians is taking place.” He added, “Europeans. You won’t be able to say that you didn’t see what happened to Ukrainians, what happened to Mariupol residents. You saw. You know.”
Amnesty International investigated a Russian air strike that killed 47 civilians in Chernihiv. The attack occurred on March 3 when a public square was hit by multiple bombs. Based on interviews and analysis of video evidence, Amnesty concluded the attack was most likely a Russian air strike that deployed eight unguided aerial bombs—known colloquially as “dumb” bombs. “The air strike that hit the streets of Chernihiv shocks the conscience. This was a merciless, indiscriminate attack on people as they went about their daily business in their homes, streets and shops,” said Amnesty’s Crisis Response Director.
The U.S. House of Representatives voted to provide $13.6 billion in aid to Ukraine as part of a larger $1.5 trillion spending package. About $6.5 billion, roughly half of the package, will go to the U.S. Department of Defense so it can deploy troops to the region and send defense equipment to Ukraine, and some $4 billion will provide humanitarian support for refugees fleeing Ukraine and people displaced within Ukraine on the form of emergency food assistance, health care and urgent support for vulnerable communities inside the region.
On the sanctions front, AP reports that while the U.S. and the U.K. have announced bans on Russian oil imports, European Union leaders are struggling with how to follow suit without triggering more inflation and a deep recession in Europe. Some countries, such as Poland, are far more dependent on Russian energy than others, such as Ireland, so finding consensus within the EU may prove difficult.
Fitch rating services on Tuesday downgraded Russia's sovereign rating by six notches further into junk territory to 'C' from 'B', saying a default is imminent as sanctions and trade restrictions have undermined its ability and willingness to service debt. Moody’s and S&P Global made similar moves in recent days.
After a surprising tumble in oil prices, the Dow Jones was up on Wednesday about 800 points, or 2.4 percent near the close of afternoon trading. Brent crude, the international benchmark, tumbled 12.2 percent to about $112 a barrel. West Texas Intermediate crude, the U.S. benchmark, fell 11 percent to less than $109 a barrel.
Pressure on China to go along with western sanctions increased as U.S. Commerce Secretary Raimondo warned that Chinese firms that do not comply with U.S. restrictions on exports to Russia, especially those involving any advanced technologies, could themselves be cut off from American equipment and software.
Per the New York Times, more than 13,000 protestors have been arrested in Russia since its invasion of Ukraine began on Feb. 24. Most arrests have taken place in Moscow and St. Petersburg, but smaller protests have sprung up more than 150 cities.
In a show of defiance, the Kyiv-Classic Symphony Orchestra played in public despite the invasion, gathering outside in downtown to play an impromptu concert. Herman Makarenko, who also leads Ukraine's national ballet and opera ensemble, conducted them in the national anthem and several other numbers.
There is a glimmer of hope that the parties, presently quite far apart, may be able to move toward a negotiated peace. In public statements Russia has narrowed its demands from “demilitarization” to focus on Ukrainian “neutrality” and the status of its Russian-occupied regions. It said for the first time on Wednesday that Russia was not seeking to “overthrow” Ukraine’s government. President Zelenskyy has suggested he was open to revising Ukraine’s aspirations to join NATO, which are currently written into its constitution, and even to a compromise over the status of Ukrainian territory such as Crimea now controlled by Russia.
President Zelenskyy’s message yesterday to his people and the world was delivered by video filmed outside his location in Kyiv: “It's snowing. This is the spring we have. This year's spring is like this war. Serious. But everything will be fine. We'll win."
Sources:
https://www.nytimes.com/live/2022/03/09/world/ukraine-russia-war
https://www.amnesty.org/en/latest/news/2022/03/ukraine-russian-dumb-bomb-air-strike-kills-civilians-in-chernihiv-new-investigation-and-testimony/
https://reut.rs/3731tBN
https://news.sky.com/story/ukraine-war-children-buried-under-rubble-after-russian-airstrike-hit-hospital-in-mariupol-president-zelenskyy-says-12561747
https://www.cnn.com/2022/03/09/politics/ukraine-aid-spending-bill-congress/index.html
https://www.washingtonpost.com/business/2022/03/09/stock-market-today-oil-prices/
https://www.reuters.com/markets/europe/fitch-cuts-russias-rating-says-debt-default-imminent-2022-03-08/
https://apnews.com/article/russia-ukraine-putin-business-european-union-germany-60cd9af0e990d0e95547d2c7052f898f
https://guce.yahoo.com/consent?brandType=nonEu&gcrumb=G0VKGDU&done=https%3A%2F%2Ffinance.yahoo.com%2Fnews%2Fchinese-firms-aid-russia-may-210315147.html%3Ffr%3Dsycsrp_catchall
https://www.telegraph.co.uk/russia-ukraine-war/?WT.mc_id=e_DM1550270&WT.tsrc=email&etype=Edi_Dis_New&utmsource=email&utm_medium=Edi_Dis_New20220309&utm_campaign=DM1550270
https://www.nytimes.com/2022/03/09/world/europe/ukraine-russia-cease-fire-talks.html
...good stuff as always, Mr. Kuo
Thank you.