While I’m off this week I’m republishing my daily update in Ukraine in this newsletter. To continue to read daily war updates, check my Facebook page each morning.
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Day 17
Russia launched an attack on three cities of Ukraine, expanding its zone of attack to cities quite far from its borders and to which refugees from previously occupied territories had fled.
Russian forces fired missile strikes on a wide range of targets including airfields in the far west of the country. The airport at Lutsk, just 70 miles from the Polish border, suffered substantial damage after four missiles were fired from a Russian bomber, hitting the airport and killing two people. The military airfield at Ivano-Frankivsk, about 150 miles south of Lutsk, was also hit. In the City of Dnipro, there were three air strikes hitting a kindergarten, an apartment building, and a two-story shoe factory.
While Vladimir Putin initially expected to take control of Ukraine's capital within two days of the invasion, U.S. intelligence believes Kyiv is in a position to hold the Russians at bay for several more weeks. Part of the reason includes Russia’s inability to command air superiority.
The New York Times reports that more than two weeks into the conflict, Ukraine’s drones, which are Turkish-made Bayraktar TB2s that travel at just half the speed of a Cessna, are not only still aloft, they also remain equipped with guided missiles that have continued to hit Russian launchers, tanks, and supply trains. Pentagon officials were sure these drones, which are slow, defenseless and easily jammed, would be destroyed early on in the war. But for whatever reason, this has not come to pass, giving the drones free reign to create a hell-zone for Russian ground forces.
“Their failure to secure air superiority has been reflected by their slow and ponderous actions on the ground,” said David A. Deptula, a retired three-star Air Force general who planned the U.S. air campaigns in Afghanistan in 2001 and the Persian Gulf in 1991. “Conversely, the Ukrainian air force performing better than expected has been a big boost to the morale of the entire country.”
The failures on the ground have stoked fears that Russia will step up its artillery shelling of population centers and could even resort to the use of banned weaponry such as chemical weapons. President Biden underscored this on Friday in response to a question following his prepared remarks at the White House. “I’m not going to speak about the intelligence,” Biden said in response to a shouted question about the possible use of chemical weapons. “But Russia would pay a severe price if they use chemical weapons.”
As the war drags on, President Zelenskyy said as many as 100,000 Ukrainians have been evacuated from the most besieged cities and brought to safety farther West over the past two days. Meanwhile, there are credible reports that Putin is very unhappy with the execution of the war to date and has sacked key intelligence officials. These include Sergei Beseda, head of the FSB, and his deputy Bolukh, both placed under house arrest.
President Biden announced that the U.S. and its allies will suspend normal trade relations with Russia. The U.S., EU and G7 countries are moving to revoke “most-favored trade status” for Russia over its invasion of Ukraine (meaning it could be hit with a special set of tariffs that other nations don’t pay) and will also take steps to ban the import of Russian seafood, diamonds and vodka, he said.
Deutsche Bank reversed its previous decision to stay in Russia and announced it would wind down its business there. It had faced criticism after saying that leaving would go against its values, even as other banks cut ties. “Like some international peers and in line with our legal and regulatory obligations, we are in the process of winding down our remaining business in Russia while we help our non-Russian multinational clients in reducing their operations," the bank said on Friday.
China is facing increasing pressure to comply with Western financial sanctions on Russia. The Chinese-led Asian Infrastructure Investment Bank had already said it would put its lending to Russia and Belarus on hold over the war in Ukraine. Now some Chinese banks have cut back on the financing of Russian commodities. The result suggests that China cannot alone play savior to the Russian economy. “Chinese banks are trying to cut their exposure to Russia,” noted Raymond Yeung of ANZ Bank. “You can tell that the theory of China offering a financial alternative to Russia remains questionable.”
EU leaders agreed to spend the next two months drafting proposals for eliminating their dependency on Russian energy by the 2027. European Commission President Ursula von der Leyen said, “By mid-May we will come up with a proposal to phase out our dependency on Russian gas, oil and coal by 2027, backed by the necessary national and European resources.” Her remarks came after an emergency summit of EU leaders called to discuss Russia's war in Ukraine.
In a show of defiance toward Russian disinformation campaigns, President Zelenskyy stood outside the Ukrainian Presidential Administration yesterday and filmed an addresses plainly showing he hasn’t left Kyiv, as Russia had falsely claimed. “Don’t waste time creating fakes,” he said.
Sources:
https://www.cnn.com/2022/03/11/europe/russia-invasion-ukraine-03-11-intl/index.html
https://www.nytimes.com/2022/03/11/us/politics/ukraine-military-drones-russia.html
https://www.politico.com/news/2022/03/11/biden-says-russia-will-pay-severe-price-if-it-uses-chemical-weapons-in-ukraine-00016546
https://cepa.org/putin-places-spies-under-house-arrest/
https://www.cbsnews.com/live-updates/biden-revokes-russia-favored-trade-status/
https://www.reuters.com/business/finance/deutsche-bank-says-wind-down-russia-business-2022-03-11/
https://www.nytimes.com/2022/03/11/business/china-russia-ukraine-sanctions-economy.html
https://www.cnn.com/2022/03/11/energy/europe-russia-energy-end-date/index.html
Thank you, Jay. I have had to back off on news coverage of Ukraine. Its too much. I limit myself to you and Heather Cox Richardson for my sanity.