From my daily social media updates on Russia’s war in Ukraine:
***
The number of refugees who have fled Ukraine is now over 3.2 million, with 2 million having fled to neighboring Poland alone. The number of internally displaced Ukrainian citizens tops 6.5 million, according to the United Nations Migration Agency.
A World Food Program official said that food supply chains in Ukraine were collapsing, with infrastructure destroyed and many grocery shelves and food warehouses now empty. The WFP expressed particular concern about the situation in “encircled cities” such as Mariupol. Some observers warned that Russia is employing a classic starvation strategy to sap the Ukrainian people of the will to fight.
The disruption of food supplies is also threatening crucial exports of grain that could undermine global food security, the UN warned. “The consequences of this conflict in Ukraine are radiating outwards, triggering a wave of collateral hunger across the globe,” said the WFP director. “Ukraine is a catastrophe compounding what is already a year of catastrophic hunger.”
Meanwhile, Russia’s aerial bombardment of the country continues unabated. Russia has now fired 1,080 missiles at Ukraine since the start of the invasion, a senior U.S. defense official said. Russia's defense ministry said its hypersonic missiles had destroyed an underground missile and aircraft ammunition depot in the western region of the country. Missiles also destroyed Ukrainian military radio and reconnaissance centres near the port of Odesa, according to the Russian military.
Dozens of victims were reported in Mykolaiv after shelling and airstrikes. The mayor said the city was fired at from close range, so there was no time to sound air raid sirens.
In Mariupol, over one thousand people are still trapped under the rubble of a destroyed theater. "130 people have already been evacuated from the drama theater in Mariupol destroyed by the occupiers, but 1,300 people are still in the basements," Ukrainian parliament's commissioner for human rights Lyudmyla Denisova said in an interview.
The ground war is going far less well for Russia than its aerial assaults. The New York Times spoke with a British diplomat who confirmed that his nation has sent Ukraine more than 4,200 NLAWs—Next Generation Light Anti-Tank Weapons—which are the culmination of decades of efforts to build small, lightweight guided missiles to even the balance between a tank and a foot soldier. Compared to U.S.-made Javelin antitank misiles, also sent to Ukraine by the thousands, the NLAW weighs about half, costs far less, and is optimized for short-range fights—the kind of combat Ukrainian soldiers face daily with their Russian enemies. This sort of agile but deadly firepower has stymied the invasion and inflicted thousands of losses for the Russian army.
NATO countries reportedly have agreed to send air defense systems to Slovakia. Germany and the Netherlands will deliver MIM-104 Patriot PAC-3 air defense systems to that country, while the Slovak Defense Minister said that his country would transfer Soviet-made S-300 air defense systems to Ukraine. Russia earlier warned that it will not allow the air defense system transfer to Ukraine and had threatened to strike any supply lines for that system. Doing so could escalate the war and draw NATO forces into direct conflict with Russia.
President Joe Biden went outside normal diplomatic protocol and called Vladimir Putin a "pure thug" and "murderous dictator," his latest and most pointed attack against the Russian president. His remarks came while he was speaking at the annual Friends of Ireland Luncheon on St. Patrick's Day at Capitol Hill. Biden added that Putin is “waging an immoral war against the people of Ukraine." Past presidents have avoided personal attacks at moments of crisis with a nuclear armed adversary, underscoring how personal condemnation has now become White House policy as Biden and his top aides seek to isolate Putin. They hope to label him as a pariah and an indiscriminate killer who should face trial for war crimes. The Kremlin called Biden’s words “unforgivable.”
Putin was shown making his first public appearance since the invasion began. He was broadcast leading a boisterous, flag-waving rally held at a Moscow stadium, heaping praise on the troops fighting in Ukraine, despite much heavier-than-expected Russian losses. “Shoulder to shoulder, they help and support each other,” he said. “We have not had unity like this for a long time.” The crowd cheered, but there were reports that the government had mobilized state-linked workers to attend, and some attendees said they were bused to the stadium and groups of people were directed by their leaders.
One European media outlet questioned the authenticity of the broadcast footage, showing side by sides of the rally with strikingly similar footage from a rally one year ago. At one point, cameras inexplicably cut away from Putin in the middle of his speech, which Russia media said was due to a “server” issue.
The reality around support for the war, especially in the military, paints a far grimmer picture. NATO intelligence, citing the Ukrainian General Staff, observed that "Russian servicemen are increasingly refusing to travel to Ukraine, despite promises of veteran status and even higher salaries." One official noted that NATO expects that "the reportedly high Russian casualties will also stir some reaction in Russia, as the Russian people eventually become aware of the extent of their losses."
Within Russia’s military, there are some forced changes near the top. Reportedly, but as yet unconfirmed by Russia, Gen. Roman Gavrilov, the deputy chief of Russia's Rosgvardia (a unit of RU's interior army which was part of the front line assault and has seen tremendous losses in Ukraine) has been detained by the FSB. Gavrilov had also previously worked in the FSO, Putin's security service. Putin appears to be cleaning house with these arrests, even while exposing himself to criticism for blaming subordinates rather than accepting his own responsibility for the disastrous invasion.
According to preliminary information from the Ukrainian armed forces, Lieutenant General Andrei Mordvichev, commander of the 8th Combined Arms Army of the Southern Military District of the Russian Armed Forces, was killed by Ukrainian forces in Chernobayevka. If confirmed he would be the fifth general-ranked officer lost by the Russian army in the war.
On the sanctions front, Putin appeared hesitant to outright default on Russia’s sovereign debt, which could complicate any future western-backed financing. Russia avoided a default after it made interest payments totaling $117 million due on two U.S. dollar denominated bonds. JPMorgan Chase received and processed the payments after U.S. authorities gave the okay.
China’s top leader Xi Jinping and U.S. President Joe Biden held a top level, two hour phone call on Friday. Xi told Biden that the “Ukraine crisis is something we don’t want to see,” according to a summary released by China’s official broadcaster. Xi added, “We should not only steer China-U.S. relations forward on the right track, but we should also shoulder our international responsibilities and strive for world peace and tranquility.”
According to the White House, Biden "described the implications and consequences if China provides material support to Russia as it conducts brutal attacks against Ukrainian cities and civilians." China’s readout of the call described the tensions between the U.S. and China over Taiwan, and Xi warned the U.S. about any steps that might encourage Taiwanese independence. While the Chinese leader gave no clear indication whether his country would support Russia with military equipment, as many have feared based on intelligence to date, he also did not state whether China would honor or seek to evade sanctions on Russia.
Chinese state-run media, however, has begun to focus on the humanitarian crisis rather than the dominance of the Russian military—a notable shift in tone. CGTN America, the global arm of China’s state broadcaster, tweeted, “The dead bodies of people killed by Russian shelling lay covered across much of Ukraine. With the number of people fleeing the conflict growing to the millions and Russian shelling continuing, many fear the humanitarian disaster is far from over.” On the tightly controlled leading Chinese social media site Weibo, the only top trending content on the war was President Zelenskyy’s address to the U.S. Congress.
In a video address on Saturday, President Zelenskyy spoke to Russian leadership directly about peace talks. “I want everyone to hear me now, especially in Moscow. The time has come for a meeting, it is time to talk," he said. "The time has come to restore territorial integrity and justice for Ukraine. Otherwise, Russia's losses will be such that it will take you several generations to recover."
Sources:
https://www.nytimes.com/2022/03/18/world/europe/russia-ukraine-china-biden.html
https://www.reuters.com/world/europe/meaningful-talks-needed-stop-russia-ukraine-zelenskiy-says-2022-03-19/
https://www.businessinsider.com/ukraine-official-says-people-still-trapped-bombed-mariupol-theater-2022-3
https://www.nytimes.com/2022/03/18/us/ukraine-antitank-missiles-russia.html
https://www.cnn.com/2022/03/17/politics/biden-putin-pure-thug/index.html
https://www.nytimes.com/2022/03/17/us/politics/biden-putin-war-criminal.html
https://www.nytimes.com/live/2022/03/18/world/ukraine-russia-war/putin-rally
https://www.cnn.com/2022/03/17/europe/russian-casualties-ukraine-military-readiness/index.html
https://www.nytimes.com/live/2022/03/18/world/ukraine-russia-war
https://www.nytimes.com/2022/03/17/world/europe/russia-bond-payment.html
https://www.nytimes.com/live/2022/03/18/world/ukraine-russia-war
https://www.axios.com/biden-xi-jinping-call-russia-ukraine-china-589b2602-5b83-46ac-8c8f-7b8771490374.html
Praying for peace, praying for cooler heads. Gospodi pomiluj.
NBC reporting,1 hour ago, Russia's use of "hypersonic missles" against Ukraine. Context: Ukraine was able to shhot down 2 of 6 missles last Friday morning in the area of the Lviv Airport. Hypersonics are much mote difficult to defend.