From my daily updates on the war in Ukraine, originally posted to my Facebook page.
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The New York Times reports that the first stages of the battle for Kyiv have begun, with cruise missile bombardments, Russian troop movements to encircle the city, and a fight to gain air superiority by the warring sides. Street-level gunfights are regular occurrences in the city’s suburbs. The Russians are preparing for a long siege, deploying exhaustion, hunger, and despair as weapons considered to be as powerful and game-changing as the armaments advancing toward the city center.
But after three weeks of suburban fighting, Ukrainian forces, organized into small units that have staged constant ambushes, are growing more confident. Exhaustion, hunger and despair are their weapons, too, as they attempt to render the war so costly for the Russian army that it will lose the will to fight before it reaches the city.
“There’s no talk of capitulation for Kyiv,” said Lt. Tetiana Chornovol, the commander of an anti-tank missile unit operating on the outskirts of the city. “Everything is going far better than we thought.”
To encircle the capital, the Russians must engage in several more suburban battles. At that point, the Russian army will have two options: starve the city or try a block-by-block assault. Modern cities like Kyiv typically have limited stocks of food, relying on constant replenishment. Fortunately, a highway to the southwest permits delivery of supplies of both weapons and food, a least for now. Grinding street-level fighting, on the other hand, would cause significant Russian casualties. They might instead opt for special forces attacks or raids that result in capture of key leaders such as President Zelenskyy.
In the south of the nation, Russian forces pushed deeper into Mariupol, where fighting shut down a major steel plant and local authorities pleaded for more Western help. Should Mariupol fall, it would mark a major advance for the Russians, who are largely bogged down outside other major cities. Russian forces have already cut the city off from the Sea of Azov, and its capture would link Crimea to Eastern territories controlled by Russian-backed separatists.
Ukrainian authorities said the Russian military bombed an art school in Mariupol in which about 400 people had taken refuge. Local authorities said the school building was destroyed and there could be people under the rubble. There was no immediate word on casualties.
The city’s mayor accused Russian forces of forcible deportation of some residents to Russia. “What the occupiers are doing today is familiar to the older generation, who saw the horrific events of World War II, when the Nazis forcibly captured people,” he said on Telegram. The city’s council also charged that several thousand Mariupol residents were deported to Russia. “Some people were sent to far way cities of Russia, the fate of others is unknown,” the council said.
Ukraine’s military said that Russian forces, which have stalled in many parts of the country, were largely busy replenishing losses in people and equipment. Troop reinforcements and supplies were said to be coming from the occupied Donetsk region in the eastern part of the country. And according to Ukraine, Putin has called for the transfer of troops from the far east to Belarus. The troops are being moved from Vladivostok and Petropavlovsk-Kamchatsky in order to make up for high casualties in Ukraine.
In a recent poll, nearly all Ukrainians believe Russia will be defeated and do not support a ceasefire unless Russia fully retreats from Ukraine. 93% of Ukrainians believe in victory over Russia. 47% also believe Ukraine can win the war in the next few weeks, which many experts say is unlikely given Russia’s past history of wars of attrition or absent a big change in leadership at the Kremlin.
Still, the poll speaks to the continuing morale advantage the Ukrainians have over the invaders. The front lines have barely moved in over a week, and Russian casualties are pacing at the rate as high as 1,000 a day, according to Western intelligence estimates. The number is even more if you believe Ukrainian estimates.
At such rates Russia’s military campaign could soon become unsustainable, with troops lacking sufficient manpower, supplies and munitions, analysts and officials say. The next two weeks will be critical to the outcome of the entire war. Unless Russia can swiftly improve its supply lines, bring in reinforcements and bolster the morale of its troops, its stated goals may become unachievable. Russia will need to score key captures of cities, such as Mariupol, to connect its supply lines and free up forces to fight elsewhere.
On the diplomatic front, a senior Chinese government official said on Saturday that sanctions imposed by Western nations on Russia over Ukraine are increasingly "outrageous,” adding that Russian citizens were being deprived of overseas assets "for no reason.” It views the sanctions as unilateral and not authorized by the U.N. Security Council. China’s Vice Foreign Minister also gave a nod to Moscow's view on NATO, saying the alliance should not further expand eastwards and force Russia "into a corner.” He continued, “History has proven time and again that sanctions cannot solve problems. Sanctions will only harm ordinary people, impact the economic and financial system... and worsen the global economy." China has yet to condemn Russia's action in Ukraine or label it an invasion, though it has expressed deep concern about the war and its humanitarian costs. The success of sanctions could prove a lesson for China, which has a goal of reunifying Taiwan with the mainland but would inevitably face stiff international sanctions if it sought to use force.
President Zelenskyy, keenly award of both the strategic importance of Mariupol and the immense suffering of its people, spoke of the city specifically in a late night address. The Russian blockade and bombardment of the port will “go down in the history of responsibility for war crimes,” Zelenskyy warned, even as he conceded that peace negotiations have been difficult and reminded his citizens and the world that Ukraine has always sought a peaceful solution out of the war with Russia.
Sources:
https://www.nytimes.com/2022/03/19/world/europe/kyiv-ukraine-russia-war.html
https://apnews.com/article/russia-ukraine-putin-europe-lifestyle-moscow-1b564e5ac8cdc5e15904576ac8e96164
https://www.bloomberg.com/news/articles/2022-03-19/ukraine-update-russia-says-used-kinzhal-missile-in-strike
https://www.timesofisrael.com/russia-bombed-mariupol-art-school-where-400-were-sheltering-ukraine-officials-say/
https://www.wsj.com/articles/russias-halting-progress-in-attack-on-ukraine-puts-focus-on-resupply-efforts-11647775418
https://www.washingtonpost.com/world/2022/03/20/russia-ukraine-military-offensive/
https://www.reuters.com/world/chinese-official-calls-sanctions-russia-increasingly-outrageous-2022-03-19
https://www.theguardian.com/world/video/2022/mar/20/volodymyr-zelenskiy-mariupol-siege-ukraine-russia-video
Per Cal Perry on msnbc Live in Ukraine, at 8:15 Eastern, Mariupol is 80 percent desroyed; Russian soldiers & Ukranian citizens lie dead on the streets of Kharkiv. Cal confirms 2nd Russian strike with Hypersonic missle(s) but no precise Target confirmation.
Our prayers rise for the people being harmed in this terrible war. The long suffering Ukrainian people bearing the brunt of this criminal attack and the poor Russian soldiers who have been ordered to do so - whose parents shall lose their sons to the carnage of war. Lord have mercy. Lord have mercy. Lord have mercy. Gospodi pomiluj. Gospodi pomiluj. Gospodi pomiluj.