Ukraine: Day 32
From my daily Facebook update on the war in Ukraine. Follow my page there to see it in your daily feed.
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Day 32
Russian forces have opened a partial land corridor from Russia to the Crimean Peninsula, a key strategic aim of Moscow. Ukraine acknowledged that Russia now has seized enough territory around Mariupol to move troops and supplies between Crimea and Russia. It is unclear, however, how secure that corridor will remain. Russia already controlled much of the area before now, and Ukrainian forces have hit back with aggressive counterattacks. Russian occupying forces also have faced widespread public resistance.
Facing continued military challenges, Russia expanded on the notion that its goal all along was to control the Eastern Donbas region rather than the whole country. One top Russian general claimed they could still mount an offensive against Kyiv and other major cities (though logistically that now seems quite questionable) but that the main purpose of positioning troops outside those cities was now to prevent Ukraine from sending reinforcements to the east. Russia did do not exclude the possibility of storming cities, General Rudskoi said, but “our forces and resources will be concentrated” on Donbas.
The Russian military’s revisionist refocus on Donbas is quite telling, as Russia already controlled much of that region before its invasion, so claiming its goal is now to secure the region barely moves the status quo ante, according to experts.
The Pentagon reports that Russia is now mobilizing reinforcements as its combat losses grow. “We now have indications that they are drawing on forces from Georgia,” said a senior U.S. defense official. “We don’t have an exact number.” Thousands of Russian troops are stationed on bases in that country, as well as Syria, Tajikistan, and other outposts. Experts consider them combat-capable and ready to deploy immediately. While troop reinforcements may bring some temporary relief, they are unlikely to change the war’s course, according to military experts. Russia cannot redeploy large numbers of foreign-based troops because its military likely does not have enough skilled personnel to keep those outposts adequately staffed.
Even as it mobilizes reinforcements, Russia is running out of precision guided munitions. As a result, it is more likely to rely on so-called “dumb bombs” and artillery, a senior Pentagon official said. That will result in more civilians casualties and strikes upon civilian structures.
The Ukrainian Interior Ministry said on Sunday that Russia had begun targeting and destroying Ukrainian fuel and food storage centers. If this continues, the government would have to disperse stocks of both in the near future.
President Biden ratcheted up his rhetoric in his speech in Poland. “Putin has the gall to say he's denazifying Ukraine. It's a lie,” he said. “It's also obscene." Startling some observers, Biden also called for Putin’s removal, saying, “For God’s sake, this man cannot remain in power.” The remark drew headlines because it hinted at regime change as a goal, but the White House denied that was the intent. Biden also called Putin “a butcher” when answering a reporter’s question.
Biden gave his remarks while visiting Poland to help strengthen relations and NATO commitments in the face of the Russian invasion of its neighbor. The speech in Warsaw took place amid reports that Russia had fired missiles at the city of Lviv just across the Polish border. The missiles hit targets in the eastern part of the city, at or near an oil storage facility.
On sanctions, Germany released a report showing that the country was cutting its dependence on Russian energy sooner than many thought possible. Its economic minister said Germany expected to slash imports of Russian oil in half by midsummer and nearly end its imports by end of this year.
President Zelenskyy’s chief of staff Andriy Yermak said that officials were "very disappointed" in the outcome of the NATO summit this past week. “We expected more bravery. We expected some bold decisions," Yermak said in a video call with the Atlantic Council. Ukrainian officials have sought unsuccessfully to obtain Soviet-era jet fighters from NATO countries, assuming a no-fly zone remained off the table.
While the U.S. and its allies continue to provide anti-tank and anti-aircraft missiles, President Zelenskyy pressed his case for more military aid, noting that retaking a city like Mariupol would be impossible without larger assets like tanks and planes. “Ukraine cannot shoot down Russian missiles with shotguns and machine guns,” he said. Ukraine has been waiting 31 days for these, he argued, adding, “Who is leading the Euro-Atlantic community? Is it still Moscow through intimidation?”
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Sources:
https://www.nytimes.com/live/2022/03/25/world/ukraine-russia-war
https://www.washingtonpost.com/national-security/2022/03/25/russia-reinforcements-georgia-ukraine/
https://www.reuters.com/world/russia-running-out-precision-munitions-ukraine-war-pentagon-official-2022-03-25/
https://www.reuters.com/world/europe/rockets-strike-ukraines-lviv-biden-says-putin-cannot-remain-power-2022-03-27/?
https://www.washingtonpost.com/world/2022/03/25/russia-ukraine-war-news-biden-live-updates/#link-6SKBECBGORD2TISFOA2YQEXIPI
https://www.washingtonpost.com/media/2022/03/25/putin-conservative-cancel-culture/
https://www.washingtonpost.com/media/2022/03/25/putin-conservative-cancel-culture/
https://www.nytimes.com/2022/03/25/business/germany-russia-gas.html
Status Kuo, thank you for the citation to Ambassador McFaul with his substantial experience & personal knowlege of all the players including the ex-KGB agent, Putin.