What I’m Watching for in the “Debate”

Harris and Trump both face a critical and possibly race-defining moment in tonight’s match-up.

Photos: Grace Widyatmadja/NPR; Stephen Maturen/Getty Images

All eyes are on the match-up tonight between Vice President Kamala Harris and ex-president Donald Trump. Before the night begins, I want to help set the scene. 

First, let’s be clear. Tonight isn’t a real debate. It’s an opportunity for Harris to define herself and answer questions about policy, and one for Trump to spew more nonsense and lies. The moderators likely won’t fact check Trump in real time, so the job of dealing with Trump’s lies unfairly falls to Harris.

Second, TV is Trump’s natural medium, and no one should go into a debate with Trump underestimating his abilities as a television personality. Trump is a master at making everything about him, so Harris will have her work cut out for her to prevent that from happening while explaining her own vision for the future.

But what else am I watching for? Today I want to walk through some of my own mental checklist to provide a context for the stakes and how to assess the candidates’ respective performances, beyond just a gut feeling about how the night went. 

Ready to dive in?

The candidates on policy

The Harris campaign just released a trove of policy positions, now all available on its website. This doesn’t just provide a clear statement of her priorities. It gives journalists lots of fodder for tough questions. 

And let’s be clear again. Trump has no actual similar policies. The closest thing he has is Project 2025, which is so scary and weird that even Trump is trying to put as much distance as he can from it. What he has instead are catchy phrases and slogans with no real policy behind them.

I’ll be watching for how Harris frames her answers to policy questions around how they will help average working families. This is Harris’s strong suit, and it can be quite effective. Secretary Pete Buttigieg once shared the stage with Harris during the 2020 primary, and he participated in debate prep for her when she went up against then Vice President Pence. His description of her response style, and how she always brings it back to kitchen table issues, is worth noting. You can watch his full interview here.

To the extent Trump is asked about policy—for example, his cockamamie ideas about tariffs, his plan to deport over 10 million undocumented immigrants, and his stance on a national abortion ban—I expect him to answer as he always does: with nonsensical rambling. But it’s one thing for him to do that during campaign rallies before a brainwashed, adoring audience accustomed to his non-sequiturs and lengthy asides. It’s entirely another for him to do so before a national media audience where there are still voters who, believe it or not, haven’t made up their minds and are just now tuning into the election.

The kind of voters who haven’t made up their minds, perhaps because they have skepticism about the direction of the country or the high cost of living, will want to hear some actual answers. Harris’s goal is to provide them with assurances that she can deliver. Trump’s goal is to confuse them so much that they don’t realize they didn’t get any.

Messaging to the undecideds

Did you notice that in most polling the numbers among the candidates don’t quite add up to 100 percent? In the national polling averages, for example, you’ll see things like Harris leading Trump by a couple percentage points. This is the version currently offered by the New York Times.

A spread of 49 to 47 means there are about four percent of voters who aren’t for either candidate, and a small percent of voters who can still be persuaded to change their minds. In 2016 and 2020, it was late breaking undecided voters who swung the election for Trump and Biden respectively.

The so-called “double haters” who disliked both Biden and Trump in 2024 have moved decisively toward Harris since Biden dropped out. Harris is very interested in keeping up this momentum. I expect her to continue to make her case that they should choose her over Trump or a third party candidate. She will look to distinguish her “New Way Forward” from the backward looking MAGA one. Hers will be a message of unity and moving on from the division personified by Trump.

But Trump has a job, too. He needs to stop Harris’s dangerous momentum with the undecideds and the former double-haters. I expect him to try to tie her to Biden, to label her a radical leftist despite her more centrist positions of late, and to Gish gallop a slew of falsehoods, all while avoiding tough questions about Project 2025, abortion, social security, being a dictator out for political vengeance, why so many of his former cabinet members and his own former vice president aren’t supporting him, and his plan for “bloody” mass deportations. 

Who is in command?

Trump understands that this may be his last real opportunity to demonstrate that he is the real leader, the one with backbone and strength, and that Harris isn’t up for the job. To make this case, he will do all he can to belittle her and trip her up, all to show that he is in control. 

But he has to tread carefully here, or he risks looking like the lurking predator that he is. 

The candidates aren’t supposed to ask each other direct questions, but I still expect a seasoned prosecutor like Harris to put Trump on the defensive over his lies, his record and his evasions. She needs to do this while not giving oxygen to his lies and responding effectively to his attacks on the areas he thinks she is weakest: the border, crime and inflation.

Personally, I would love to see some version of this suggestion from 20-year veteran Molly Ploofkins, which plays upon the courtroom experience of Harris:

After Trump tells his first obvious whopper, which will probably be less than five minutes in, she could start her next response by simply looking at him for a few seconds then turn her eyes to the camera and say:

Have you noticed that whenever Donald Trump is on trial, he makes a big deal about wanting to testify, but he never does? That’s because when you testify in court you have to tell the truth.

It’s not illegal for Donald Trump to lie in his Truth Social posts, or in his fundraising emails, or at rallies, or in interviews or commercials. It’s not even illegal for him to lie to you in this debate. But it is illegal to lie in court, and he knows that, which is why he never testifies. That’s something to keep in mind as you listen this evening. If we had to swear in before this debate, my opponent wouldn’t be here.

Now, to address the question you asked …

Another thing that is certainly on Harris’s mind is Trump’s greatest vulnerability: women voters, a group he is already losing by double digits. It’s not hard to understand why. Trump brags repeatedly about ending Roe v. Wade, has waffled on the question of a national abortion ban, and chose a misogynistic vice presidential candidate in JD Vance. He is also an adjudicated rapist and self-admitted sexual assaulter. And a strong woman—especially a minority woman like Harris—can bring out the worst in him, sometimes by doing nothing more than merely existing.

Harris understands that debates are remembered for their viral moments. She took command of the first primary debate in 2019 by reminding squabbling Democrats that the voters didn’t want a food fight, they wanted to know how they’d help put food on their tables. She took control of the debate with Pence in a devastating moment, insisting to him politely but firmly, “I’m speaking.”

With mics muted, Harris will need to bring focus back to each question quickly and deftly reframe the issue on terms that allow her to advance her messaging. It will be no easy task. But if any candidate besides Buttigieg can pull this off with Trump, it is Harris.

One programming note: I will be watching the debate live and commenting in real time for The Big Picture. Be sure you’re signed up to receive our community post tonight in your email and to join the conversation. If you’re not a subscriber yet, you can join for free (or as a valued paid supporter!) at this link.

See many of you tonight! And remember to breathe deeply and trust that this remarkable woman is fully up to taking on a guy like Trump.