Where Now, Vladimir?

I got back to NYC after 2 a.m. last night so today’s piece is a republication of my Ukraine update from my Facebook page. It discusses the impending decision Putin must make on whether to seek peace or lean into Russia’s military aggression.

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Day 37

After retaking the town of Irpin northwest of Kyiv, Ukrainian forces are battling for control of the nearby towns of Bucha and Hostomel, officials said. The goals are to prevent Russia from encircling the capital and to drive Russian forces, many of whom have dug in, out of the northern part of the country. Ukrainian forces also have retaken the villages of Sloboda and Lukashivka south of Chernihiv. The towns are located along one of the main supply routes between that city and Kyiv.

Russian troops reportedly began leaving the vicinity of the Chernobyl nuclear plant after soldiers were hit with “significant doses” of radiation. Russian units had been digging trenches near or at the highly contaminated site, said Ukraine’s state power company. There were no details on the condition of the troops or how many were affected by radiation.

Russia is calling up another 134,500 conscript to begin service on April 1 continuing through July 15. The Russian Defense Ministry earlier claimed that none of the new draftees would “be sent to any hot spots,” and that all conscripts called up in last spring’s draft will be sent home. It is unclear how Russia will replenish troops lost or injured in the war thus far.

There is growing evidence of disarray and disillusionment among Russian troops, with Britain intelligence citing reports of Russian soldiers disobeying orders, sabotaging equipment, and even accidentally shooting down their own aircraft. Part of the problem, say U.S. intelligence officials, is that Russia is running the war out of Moscow with no central war commander calling the shots. The lack of a unifying leader on the ground in Ukraine has rendered Russian offensives out of synch, with little coordination of air, ground and sea forces.

Putin reportedly has still not made a decision on what his next steps are. Many advisors are urging him to press ahead with the onslaught and are concerned about how a possible truce will affect public opinion. In this, they are somewhat captive to their own false narratives. “The citizens were riled up by propaganda. Suppose a decision is made to stop at the territory of the Donbas. What about the Nazis then? Are we no longer fighting them? This word has been hammered into people so much that I can’t imagine how one can stop in Donbas without losing approval ratings,” one source said.

The Kremlin dismissed American intelligence suggesting Putin’s disastrous war resulted from bad information from his military advisors. Moscow warned that such a “complete misunderstanding” of the situation in Moscow could have “bad consequences.” A Kremlin spokesperson told reporters, “It turns out that neither the State Department nor the Pentagon have real information about what is happening in the Kremlin.” He added, “They do not understand President Putin, they do not understand the decision-making mechanism and they do not understand the efforts of our work.”

That same spokesperson had tried to explain Russia’s apparent broad use of conscripts in the war back in early March, saying that some defense officials had disobeyed Putin by sending them into battle. This makes little sense, however, given that the bulk of Russian forces now in Ukraine, and the vast majority of its casualties, are in fact young and inexperienced draftees. Some broader disconnect between the Kremlin and the war on the ground is likely at play.

Russian censorship over the war has extended to Russian-language Wikipedia. Moscow’s state communication watchdog has threatened to fine Wikipedia the equivalent of $49K for refusing to delete “illegal information” on its site about the war in Ukraine.

On peace talks, a Kremlin spokesperson downplayed the idea that a meeting between Putin and Zelenskyy could take place this month. Russian officials also accused Ukraine of flying helicopter gunships across the border and targeting an oil depot on Russian territory. The governor of Belgorod region in Russia said an airstrike caused multiple fires there and injured two people. A Kremlin spokesman said the incident could undermine ongoing negotiations. “Certainly, this is not something that can be perceived as creating comfortable conditions for the continuation of the talks,” a Kremlin spokesman said when asked about the possible escalation of the war.

But a bigger threat to peace talks than cross-border attacks by Ukraine may be Russian intransigence. Moscow’s positions on continuing to control Crimea while expanding the territory in Donbas held by Russia-backed separatists “are unchanged,” according to a statement by the head of the Russian delegation. In his nightly video address, President Zelenskyy in turn vowed, “We won't give up anything, and we'll fight for every meter of our land, for every citizen."

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Sources:

https://www.wsj.com/articles/ukrainian-forces-press-advances-as-russia-regroups-11648721863

https://apnews.com/article/russia-ukraine-kyiv-europe-united-states-nato-5863ad1d740cdd04ba42a25de0d31449

https://www.nytimes.com/2022/03/31/us/politics/russia-military-ukraine.html

https://www.thedailybeast.com/putins-soldiers-caught-on-tape-lamenting-losses-and-blasting-his-army-of-stupid-morons?ref=scroll

https://www.nytimes.com/2022/03/31/world/europe/kremlin-us-intelligence-putin.html

https://www.newsweek.com/russia-wikipedia-warning-fine-ukraine-war-invasion-article-1694068

https://apnews.com/article/russia-ukraine-zelenskyy-kyiv-europe-8482e237420a33a17bfb4e613e75bb66

USA TODAY @USATODAY

We won't give up anything and we'll fight for every meter of our land, for every citizen." Zelenskyy promises to continue the fight as Russian bombing continues despite peace talks. bit.ly/37288fN