Why Does Everything Feel So Awful? And What Should Democrats Do About It?

There’s a psychological phenomenon called “loss aversion” that can help explain why Democrats remain in a terrible funk and why the GOP smells blood. Simply put, human beings would rather not lose something than gain its equivalent. Studies have shown that people who lose $100, for example, will suffer more in satisfaction loss than will be enjoyed by those who gain a $100 windfall. This effect is quite significant; researchers believe that losses may be twice as psychologically powerful to people than equivalent gains. 

This phenomenon has powerful economic implications. It’s the reason trial periods are so effective in marketing; once something is incorporated into a buyer’s status quo world, the fear of losing that thing is far more powerful than the earlier feeling of wanting it. It’s also the reason that worries over inflation, which eats away at existing savings, are more potent than the potentially good feeling of a better job market in which to earn money. This feeling is fairly hardwired into the human psyche, tracing back to prehistoric days where losing a day’s worth of food could lead to starvation, but gaining a day’s food didn’t have immediate impacts.

Loss aversion has potent political implications as well. For example, Democrats are currently in charge at the White House and very nominally in charge of Congress. That means Democrats can make some big gains on policy matters, but they still will feel they have everything to lose in 2022. And that sets up a lot of anxiety. The historic gains on Covid-19 response, on infrastructure, and they hope soon on social safety net expansion simply don’t feel as satisfying or important as what is being lost due to relentless GOP attacks, including voting rights, abortion rights, and now democracy itself.

It’s important to step back and understand that this loss aversion dynamic takes root whenever a party holds both the White House and Congress, and it leads almost inexorably to electoral defeat for them at the midterms. This is because for two years, the party in charge will have been on the defensive, meaning everything is under constant attack and the power to govern is at risk while they seek to push their agenda through. Republicans have learned, somewhat cynically, that it’s simply better to have no agenda for the nation than to put up something to be the target of the opposition.

So how do we get around loss aversion fundamentals and buck the trend in 2022? Simply put, Democrats have to go on the offensive and make Republicans feel they have something to lose, too. By this, I don’t mean attack legislatively; in fact, the best plan for Democrats would be to complete their massive bills by early 2022 so that the messy process of lawmaking isn’t always front and center, ready to pit progressive and moderates against one another further. Rather, Democrats (with an assist from GOP members still loyal to the rule of law) should spend most of 2022 launching a full-out assault on extremist Republicans, turning the attention of the nation to how dangerous, anti-democratic and corrupt they truly are.

This means putting Republican leaders on the defensive. There are increasing opportunities to exploit Minority Leader McCarthy’s loss of control over radical voices in his caucus by forcing him to either defend their lunacy or condemn it, both of which result in a further schism within the GOP. Similarly, many of the candidates who are desperate to win the support of the MAGA base could prove highly toxic to the general electorate. Republicans might splinter in the primaries over the question of loyalty to Trump; if the primary winners are too radical or extreme, that could cost them independent voters in November, but if they are too moderate and won’t support Trump’s election conspiracy claims, the MAGA base could revolt. 

We are already seeing this play out in Georgia, where a Trump-endorsed David Perdue will now challenge incumbent Brian Kemp for the GOP governorship. Trump, who is still bitter over Kemp’s refusal to assist him in overturning the 2020 election results in Georgia, has warned that his voters won’t turn up in November for Kemp if he is the nominee. Democrat Stacey Abrams, of course, is the happy beneficiary of this particularly nasty fight. It bears repeating that the last time some of Trump’s voters sat out an election, control of the Senate shifted to the Democrats.

Then there is Trump himself, who has thus far not been held to account for his role in the January 6 insurrection or for his many other apparent crimes committed before and during his tenure as president. But things are shifting. There are grand juries in Manhattan and Fulton County, Georgia currently investigating the former president on everything from tax fraud to election interference. It’s useful to remember that most grand juries don’t sit for months and ultimately decline to indict. 

And as for January 6, Rep. Liz Cheney (R-WY) has promised that the American public will hear “in vivid color” many weeks of public testimony in 2022 in order to provide a full and complete account of what led up to and occurred during the attack on the Capitol. Meanwhile, two of Trump’s legal advisors—John Eastman and Jeffrey Clark—already have indicated they will plead the Fifth rather than testify. Democrats should spend 2022 focusing on the criminal conspiracy within the Trump White House to overturn the 2020 election including the Congressmembers who apparently were part of it.

If Democrats can successfully put Trumpism and MAGA extremism on the defensive and on the ballot in 2022, they could make it feel like Republicans have something to lose: namely, the unquestioned power of their Dear Leader and any hope for a unified opposition to Democrats. The seeds of that disunity are already apparent. If Trump is seen as vulnerable or even at severe risk legally, more traditional conservatives could seize the opportunity to reclaim the GOP reins. And that would be a very good thing for the American Republic.