Yeah, I just vented to the reporter from USA Today for her reporting that the Suffolk University poll shows trump up +6 in Arizona. I looked at the crosstabs and they oversampled republicans by 4%, and conservatives more than liberals 42% to 24%. The reports says this is "trouble for Harris!" I think it's really trouble for the news media.
I am beginning to think I haven't given enough credit to the Nebraska Democratic Party. Had he run as a Democrat, I don't think he'd be doing as well because, Nebraska. But as an Independent who is being supported by Democrats, he is definitely giving Fischer a run. The fact that she refuses to engage with the people of Omaha and Lincoln is also damaging her. Go Dan!!!
At a hotel bar last night in Bellagio Italy, an older guy and his wife, who live in the UK, asked this question….”How can ANY US person support a maniac who is an absolutely disgusting person?” (Trump)
When we were at our hotel’s pool on the Greek isle of Santorini just a few months ago, we had a *very* similar conversation with an Irish couple. And when I was traveling South America and the EU on business during Trump’s term, I was asked that question a LOT.
Whenever some MAGA dunce tries to tell me that Trump will “bring back the respect of the international community”, it simply tells me they don’t get out much! 🤣
Like you often say, polls don't mean much, but they do seem to reflect trendlines pretty well. So, yay!
I have taken my own ad hoc survey of voters where I live, Georgia. Kamala wins by a lot, and 0 voters for Trump (a couple are Republicans who are one sitting this one out or are too embarrassed to say they're voting for Trump). It's not the most accurate poll. It mostly demonstrates what kind of people I hang with in Georgia. And what kind I don't.
That said, my poll is probably as accurate as Nate Cohn's Siena monstrosity, and the sample size (about 10) isn't much smaller.
Two words JIMMY CARTER. Just get out and vote . ( as much as he is beloved) Don't let the polls fool you it wouldn't happen if you don't VOTE. And watch a channel that does not have election results until about 9 PM don't be fooled by good numbers early in the evening!! REMEMBER what happen to Jimmy!!
I don’t think it’s likely that we’ll have the results on the night of the election. Especially if Pennsylvania hasn’t changed its rule on processing mail-in ballots before Election Day and Georgia now has this absurd hand counting rule.
That said, if Harris over performs in Michigan and Wisconsin and manages to eke out a win in North Carolina, that will greatly increase the likelihood of my ability to sleep on Tuesday night.
A reader from Nebraska here - I deeply appreciate that you highlighted the very real possibility that a Senate seat may shift parties in our state! This is an outcome that many of us have growing hope for. One issue I take with your post, however, is that several times Dan Osborn's last name is given as Bishop. (?!) Somehow that must have gotten past your editors - is there any way that can be corrected? Getting the name right is pretty important!
Just donated to Dan Osborn, thank you, Jay, for the coverage! Everyone, please consider helping Colin Allred so we can finally drown Cruz with our Blue Wave!🌊Thank you!!
I like your focus on likely voters. Also some candidates have soft, tribal support - think Scott and Cruz. Both men are widely loathed and not just by Democrats. Add in a problematic GOP presidential candidate and I think there going to be a lot of voters who cast cross ballot votes or stay home and are just too embarrassed to tell it to a pollster. I also think these embarrassed voters may make a difference in a number of other races. So, I am going to go out on a limb and say there are going to be some pleasant surprises on election night. I am also going to put my money where my mouth is and throw a little cash to candidates running against other detestable rethugs.
As a Texan, I can tell you that he ticked off a lot of people, regardless of party, when we were freezing in our homes in 2021, and he went off to Mexico. I'm hoping voters remember that.
After the absolute devastation last night from hurricane Helene, Florida needs some good news and new leadership- let’s get skeletor Scott out and finally get someone in office that supports Floridians! DMP allllllllthe way!
I’m especially worried due to knowing the area it hit, they aren’t the most well off people in the state and need the assistance a lot more than others and are about to be left to fend for themselves in a lot of ways thanks to mismanagement on the state level. Then blame the current federal administration instead of where the blame rightfully belongs
In March, 2023, the Nebraska lege restored voting rights to felons, but this July, the Republican AG said it was unconstitutional, which takes some 7,000 voters, many in the Omaha area, off the rolls. Interesting timing, isn't it???
Yes, but for some reason our Secretary of State, Bob Evnen decided to take Attorney General Mike Hilger's written opinion as a valid enough reason to put out an order that no former felons will be allowed to register to vote. As for those who have already been able to vote under an older law that allowed felons to vote after 2 years, Hilgers declared that law unconstitutional as well, so it will be up to the courts to rule on whether Evnen had the legal right to deny the vote to a segment of our population. The Nebraska Supreme Court has yet to issue their ruling. https://www.pbs.org/newshour/show/nebraska-supreme-court-to-decide-if-lawmakers-there-can-restore-voting-rights-to-felons
I think Florida might actually be play as well. The abortion and marijuana amendments should help drive college students to the polls.
In addition, Scott is not popular. Barely won last time.
The Dems do have to overcome DeStalins voter suppression and 100,000 republican voter registration but I think it’s doable. 🤞if college students and thirty somethings show up.
I recently posted that "The Las Vegas Review Journal, owned by mega Trump donor Adelson family, reported Nevada is a dead heat right now. That means Harris is up by at least 6 points, after accounting for the big biased thumb the owners put on the scale."
It’s Osborn. Def had new Ba brain as o rushed out the door to get to my baby’s pediatric appointment. I don’t know why I kept writing Bishop! Dan Bishop is a rep from NC…
This has been edited to correct for the NE Senate candidate’s name (Osborn not Bishop).
I’m not sure if the edits were saved. I’m still seeing “Bishop” in the first part of the paragraph.
I see the edits. I had to force quit Facebook (thanks, no thanks, X) and restart it to see them.
Dan Bishop is the loser Congressman from North Carolina running for Attorney General.
Yeah, I just vented to the reporter from USA Today for her reporting that the Suffolk University poll shows trump up +6 in Arizona. I looked at the crosstabs and they oversampled republicans by 4%, and conservatives more than liberals 42% to 24%. The reports says this is "trouble for Harris!" I think it's really trouble for the news media.
More propagandist and/ or lazy, disreputable media.
This needs to change. Democracies do not survive without rigorous and fact- based journalism.
I am beginning to think I haven't given enough credit to the Nebraska Democratic Party. Had he run as a Democrat, I don't think he'd be doing as well because, Nebraska. But as an Independent who is being supported by Democrats, he is definitely giving Fischer a run. The fact that she refuses to engage with the people of Omaha and Lincoln is also damaging her. Go Dan!!!
I just donated $25 to his campaign.
I live in Omaha, and last week one of the local stations ran an ad for her. I legit said, "oh, that's what she looks like." She is invisible here.
Her and her pink pantsuit 🤣
At a hotel bar last night in Bellagio Italy, an older guy and his wife, who live in the UK, asked this question….”How can ANY US person support a maniac who is an absolutely disgusting person?” (Trump)
When we were at our hotel’s pool on the Greek isle of Santorini just a few months ago, we had a *very* similar conversation with an Irish couple. And when I was traveling South America and the EU on business during Trump’s term, I was asked that question a LOT.
Whenever some MAGA dunce tries to tell me that Trump will “bring back the respect of the international community”, it simply tells me they don’t get out much! 🤣
I’ve been asking THAT question since his escalator ride in 2015. He’s always been a gold-plated rat.
Like you often say, polls don't mean much, but they do seem to reflect trendlines pretty well. So, yay!
I have taken my own ad hoc survey of voters where I live, Georgia. Kamala wins by a lot, and 0 voters for Trump (a couple are Republicans who are one sitting this one out or are too embarrassed to say they're voting for Trump). It's not the most accurate poll. It mostly demonstrates what kind of people I hang with in Georgia. And what kind I don't.
That said, my poll is probably as accurate as Nate Cohn's Siena monstrosity, and the sample size (about 10) isn't much smaller.
Two words JIMMY CARTER. Just get out and vote . ( as much as he is beloved) Don't let the polls fool you it wouldn't happen if you don't VOTE. And watch a channel that does not have election results until about 9 PM don't be fooled by good numbers early in the evening!! REMEMBER what happen to Jimmy!!
Vote like you're life depended upon it!!
I don’t think it’s likely that we’ll have the results on the night of the election. Especially if Pennsylvania hasn’t changed its rule on processing mail-in ballots before Election Day and Georgia now has this absurd hand counting rule.
That said, if Harris over performs in Michigan and Wisconsin and manages to eke out a win in North Carolina, that will greatly increase the likelihood of my ability to sleep on Tuesday night.
It will be a day or two for PA
Pennsylvania has not changed its rule, much to our aggravation.
A reader from Nebraska here - I deeply appreciate that you highlighted the very real possibility that a Senate seat may shift parties in our state! This is an outcome that many of us have growing hope for. One issue I take with your post, however, is that several times Dan Osborn's last name is given as Bishop. (?!) Somehow that must have gotten past your editors - is there any way that can be corrected? Getting the name right is pretty important!
It’s fixed thx
Just donated to Dan Osborn, thank you, Jay, for the coverage! Everyone, please consider helping Colin Allred so we can finally drown Cruz with our Blue Wave!🌊Thank you!!
www.colinallred.com
In my very humble opinion, the NYT has become biased.
Correct. Canceled that rag.
Ditto!
I like your focus on likely voters. Also some candidates have soft, tribal support - think Scott and Cruz. Both men are widely loathed and not just by Democrats. Add in a problematic GOP presidential candidate and I think there going to be a lot of voters who cast cross ballot votes or stay home and are just too embarrassed to tell it to a pollster. I also think these embarrassed voters may make a difference in a number of other races. So, I am going to go out on a limb and say there are going to be some pleasant surprises on election night. I am also going to put my money where my mouth is and throw a little cash to candidates running against other detestable rethugs.
Thank you for the donations!
As a Texan, I can tell you that he ticked off a lot of people, regardless of party, when we were freezing in our homes in 2021, and he went off to Mexico. I'm hoping voters remember that.
Those are my thoughts as well.
After the absolute devastation last night from hurricane Helene, Florida needs some good news and new leadership- let’s get skeletor Scott out and finally get someone in office that supports Floridians! DMP allllllllthe way!
I’m worried about those people under those two leaders.
I’m especially worried due to knowing the area it hit, they aren’t the most well off people in the state and need the assistance a lot more than others and are about to be left to fend for themselves in a lot of ways thanks to mismanagement on the state level. Then blame the current federal administration instead of where the blame rightfully belongs
In March, 2023, the Nebraska lege restored voting rights to felons, but this July, the Republican AG said it was unconstitutional, which takes some 7,000 voters, many in the Omaha area, off the rolls. Interesting timing, isn't it???
Don't the courts get to decide what's constitutional?
Yes, but for some reason our Secretary of State, Bob Evnen decided to take Attorney General Mike Hilger's written opinion as a valid enough reason to put out an order that no former felons will be allowed to register to vote. As for those who have already been able to vote under an older law that allowed felons to vote after 2 years, Hilgers declared that law unconstitutional as well, so it will be up to the courts to rule on whether Evnen had the legal right to deny the vote to a segment of our population. The Nebraska Supreme Court has yet to issue their ruling. https://www.pbs.org/newshour/show/nebraska-supreme-court-to-decide-if-lawmakers-there-can-restore-voting-rights-to-felons
It’s Dan Osborn, not Bishop. 😊
I think Florida might actually be play as well. The abortion and marijuana amendments should help drive college students to the polls.
In addition, Scott is not popular. Barely won last time.
The Dems do have to overcome DeStalins voter suppression and 100,000 republican voter registration but I think it’s doable. 🤞if college students and thirty somethings show up.
I wrote about why Florida is def in play earlier, yes!
I recently posted that "The Las Vegas Review Journal, owned by mega Trump donor Adelson family, reported Nevada is a dead heat right now. That means Harris is up by at least 6 points, after accounting for the big biased thumb the owners put on the scale."
I guess I should have gone with +7.
Thank you, Jay. We will take this with cautious hope.
I am confused. You mention Dan Bishop but the Nebraska Democrat is Dan Osborne.
It’s Osborn. Def had new Ba brain as o rushed out the door to get to my baby’s pediatric appointment. I don’t know why I kept writing Bishop! Dan Bishop is a rep from NC…
Ba brain is real!