Yeah, I just vented to the reporter from USA Today for her reporting that the Suffolk University poll shows trump up +6 in Arizona. I looked at the crosstabs and they oversampled republicans by 4%, and conservatives more than liberals 42% to 24%. The reports says this is "trouble for Harris!" I think it's really trouble for the news media.
Yep, that's clearly a biased headline. The NYT needs to clean up its act. Impartiality is tough when one candidate - Trump - is a daily joke, but biased treatment of Trump's opponent is not the right way to achieve impartiality.
I’m so glad Harris hasn’t done a sit down interview with that terrible rag. I canceled my subscription several months ago. They have been biased toward Trump until an editorial on Monday.
The same sort of thing is being said by ABC, CBS, and NBC so that headline/heading/editorial slant is par for the course now - especially since they want to project this as an even race. Anything that helps further that narrative is what they use. The other thing they focus on is how long it's been since she last visited the border which also is a hit job on her campaign.
At a hotel bar last night in Bellagio Italy, an older guy and his wife, who live in the UK, asked this question….”How can ANY US person support a maniac who is an absolutely disgusting person?” (Trump)
When we were at our hotel’s pool on the Greek isle of Santorini just a few months ago, we had a *very* similar conversation with an Irish couple. And when I was traveling South America and the EU on business during Trump’s term, I was asked that question a LOT.
Whenever some MAGA dunce tries to tell me that Trump will “bring back the respect of the international community”, it simply tells me they don’t get out much! 🤣
I am beginning to think I haven't given enough credit to the Nebraska Democratic Party. Had he run as a Democrat, I don't think he'd be doing as well because, Nebraska. But as an Independent who is being supported by Democrats, he is definitely giving Fischer a run. The fact that she refuses to engage with the people of Omaha and Lincoln is also damaging her. Go Dan!!!
Two words JIMMY CARTER. Just get out and vote . ( as much as he is beloved) Don't let the polls fool you it wouldn't happen if you don't VOTE. And watch a channel that does not have election results until about 9 PM don't be fooled by good numbers early in the evening!! REMEMBER what happen to Jimmy!!
I don’t think it’s likely that we’ll have the results on the night of the election. Especially if Pennsylvania hasn’t changed its rule on processing mail-in ballots before Election Day and Georgia now has this absurd hand counting rule.
That said, if Harris over performs in Michigan and Wisconsin and manages to eke out a win in North Carolina, that will greatly increase the likelihood of my ability to sleep on Tuesday night.
Like you often say, polls don't mean much, but they do seem to reflect trendlines pretty well. So, yay!
I have taken my own ad hoc survey of voters where I live, Georgia. Kamala wins by a lot, and 0 voters for Trump (a couple are Republicans who are one sitting this one out or are too embarrassed to say they're voting for Trump). It's not the most accurate poll. It mostly demonstrates what kind of people I hang with in Georgia. And what kind I don't.
That said, my poll is probably as accurate as Nate Cohn's Siena monstrosity, and the sample size (about 10) isn't much smaller.
A reader from Nebraska here - I deeply appreciate that you highlighted the very real possibility that a Senate seat may shift parties in our state! This is an outcome that many of us have growing hope for. One issue I take with your post, however, is that several times Dan Osborn's last name is given as Bishop. (?!) Somehow that must have gotten past your editors - is there any way that can be corrected? Getting the name right is pretty important!
Just donated to Dan Osborn, thank you, Jay, for the coverage! Everyone, please consider helping Colin Allred so we can finally drown Cruz with our Blue Wave!🌊Thank you!!
I like your focus on likely voters. Also some candidates have soft, tribal support - think Scott and Cruz. Both men are widely loathed and not just by Democrats. Add in a problematic GOP presidential candidate and I think there going to be a lot of voters who cast cross ballot votes or stay home and are just too embarrassed to tell it to a pollster. I also think these embarrassed voters may make a difference in a number of other races. So, I am going to go out on a limb and say there are going to be some pleasant surprises on election night. I am also going to put my money where my mouth is and throw a little cash to candidates running against other detestable rethugs.
As a Texan, I can tell you that he ticked off a lot of people, regardless of party, when we were freezing in our homes in 2021, and he went off to Mexico. I'm hoping voters remember that.
If this was 2022, it would have an impact on the race. Most average voters have the electoral attention span of house flies. That doesn't mean some don't remember - it does emphasize that it may not matter unless he does something similar this election cycle.
After the absolute devastation last night from hurricane Helene, Florida needs some good news and new leadership- let’s get skeletor Scott out and finally get someone in office that supports Floridians! DMP allllllllthe way!
I’m especially worried due to knowing the area it hit, they aren’t the most well off people in the state and need the assistance a lot more than others and are about to be left to fend for themselves in a lot of ways thanks to mismanagement on the state level. Then blame the current federal administration instead of where the blame rightfully belongs
Imagine if Project 2025 was already in play. They wouldn't have the federal government watching their backs at all. We need to get more Blue seats period.
As do I, Carol. They keep trying to lure me back. I quit in 2016 because they were instrumental in electing Trump. Went back in 2020 just before the election. Quit again. I now have many Substack.com heroines and heroes.
I think Florida might actually be play as well. The abortion and marijuana amendments should help drive college students to the polls.
In addition, Scott is not popular. Barely won last time.
The Dems do have to overcome DeStalins voter suppression and 100,000 republican voter registration but I think it’s doable. 🤞if college students and thirty somethings show up.
I recently posted that "The Las Vegas Review Journal, owned by mega Trump donor Adelson family, reported Nevada is a dead heat right now. That means Harris is up by at least 6 points, after accounting for the big biased thumb the owners put on the scale."
Here is the article I wrote back on August 1 about the Texas Senate race and why the data shows that Colin really can win this race. Since then, Ted Cruz has just stuck his foot in his mouth more and more and my next article (still learning how to write these) is on how Ted Cruz’s ads are just attempting to distract Texas voters from his horrible record and how the last 12 years have been all about himself.
Now that Allred is polling ahead of Cruz, and Harris now within 4 of Trump, get ready to watch Texas make history. And do you know what is still true since I wrote this? Beto is still out there registering voters and we expect 2 million on top of the 1 million that we had as of March.
In March, 2023, the Nebraska lege restored voting rights to felons, but this July, the Republican AG said it was unconstitutional, which takes some 7,000 voters, many in the Omaha area, off the rolls. Interesting timing, isn't it???
Yes, eventually; but first the lawyers now have to file for a Stay & then appeal it to the courts. All of that takes enormous time. The election will be over b4 there’s a decision
Courts make semi-final determinations (potentially subject to future court decisions), but technically all topline federal and state officials are sworn to uphold the US Constitution (and their state constitutions, for state officials). This is why it was at least procedurally legitimate for some state Secretaries of State to issue decisions that Trump was ineligible for their state's ballots under the (US) Fourteenth Amendment, until they were effectively overruled by SCOTUS in March.
Yes, but for some reason our Secretary of State, Bob Evnen decided to take Attorney General Mike Hilger's written opinion as a valid enough reason to put out an order that no former felons will be allowed to register to vote. As for those who have already been able to vote under an older law that allowed felons to vote after 2 years, Hilgers declared that law unconstitutional as well, so it will be up to the courts to rule on whether Evnen had the legal right to deny the vote to a segment of our population. The Nebraska Supreme Court has yet to issue their ruling. https://www.pbs.org/newshour/show/nebraska-supreme-court-to-decide-if-lawmakers-there-can-restore-voting-rights-to-felons
This has been edited to correct for the NE Senate candidate’s name (Osborn not Bishop).
Dan Bishop is the loser Congressman from North Carolina running for Attorney General.
I’m not sure if the edits were saved. I’m still seeing “Bishop” in the first part of the paragraph.
I see the edits. I had to force quit Facebook (thanks, no thanks, X) and restart it to see them.
I saw Osborn so I'm guessing the edits have taken hold here.
The emailed newsletter refers to Dan Bishop. Maybe you can send out a correction...?
Yeah, I just vented to the reporter from USA Today for her reporting that the Suffolk University poll shows trump up +6 in Arizona. I looked at the crosstabs and they oversampled republicans by 4%, and conservatives more than liberals 42% to 24%. The reports says this is "trouble for Harris!" I think it's really trouble for the news media.
More propagandist and/ or lazy, disreputable media.
This needs to change. Democracies do not survive without rigorous and fact- based journalism.
NYT headline today:
“Harris Heads to the Border, Trying to Project Toughness Against Trump.”
My hackles are raised.
Yep, that's clearly a biased headline. The NYT needs to clean up its act. Impartiality is tough when one candidate - Trump - is a daily joke, but biased treatment of Trump's opponent is not the right way to achieve impartiality.
Thank you. Agree. And when a fascist is the alternative to the other candidate, there should be no attempted impartiality in the media.
I’m so glad Harris hasn’t done a sit down interview with that terrible rag. I canceled my subscription several months ago. They have been biased toward Trump until an editorial on Monday.
Rrrrr that paper can no longer justify its existence, at least not news wise.
I trusted the Times, as I’m sure many here did. No longer.
I canceled my subscription and told them to go f themselves over thier biased treatment of Joe. Profits over Patriotism every damn time.
I canceled 😡
The same sort of thing is being said by ABC, CBS, and NBC so that headline/heading/editorial slant is par for the course now - especially since they want to project this as an even race. Anything that helps further that narrative is what they use. The other thing they focus on is how long it's been since she last visited the border which also is a hit job on her campaign.
Good to know (disappointing, of course). I tend to stay away from those.
It's disgusting.
It sure is.
Honestly, that's so much better than they usually are; I'ma save my rage for a more egregiously biased headline... shouldn't have to wait long lol
Getting any news from USA Today, owned by Gannett, the billboard people, is a problem. They are not very neutral.
None of the news agencies can be termed to be neutral as long as they play this is an even race reporting.
Good call!
Profits over Patriotism. They are inventing a horse race when democracy is at stake.
At a hotel bar last night in Bellagio Italy, an older guy and his wife, who live in the UK, asked this question….”How can ANY US person support a maniac who is an absolutely disgusting person?” (Trump)
When we were at our hotel’s pool on the Greek isle of Santorini just a few months ago, we had a *very* similar conversation with an Irish couple. And when I was traveling South America and the EU on business during Trump’s term, I was asked that question a LOT.
Whenever some MAGA dunce tries to tell me that Trump will “bring back the respect of the international community”, it simply tells me they don’t get out much! 🤣
I've never traveled outside the U.S. and I know that most of the world doesn't respect tfg and his MAGA crowd.
I’ve been asking THAT question since his escalator ride in 2015. He’s always been a gold-plated rat.
Rats are better looking and behaved than TFG.
It boggles the mind🤪😵💫
I consider that EVERY DAY. It is beyond my comprehension.
I have been wondering that since he announced his candidacy in 2015! He’s a self promoting, lying, ignoramus.
I am beginning to think I haven't given enough credit to the Nebraska Democratic Party. Had he run as a Democrat, I don't think he'd be doing as well because, Nebraska. But as an Independent who is being supported by Democrats, he is definitely giving Fischer a run. The fact that she refuses to engage with the people of Omaha and Lincoln is also damaging her. Go Dan!!!
I just donated $25 to his campaign.
I’ve been donating to him for months now. He’s a regular working man, a steam-fitter, I think; Catholic but pro-choice!!
I live in Omaha, and last week one of the local stations ran an ad for her. I legit said, "oh, that's what she looks like." She is invisible here.
Her and her pink pantsuit 🤣
That sounds like something should be SNL fodder.
😱
Two words JIMMY CARTER. Just get out and vote . ( as much as he is beloved) Don't let the polls fool you it wouldn't happen if you don't VOTE. And watch a channel that does not have election results until about 9 PM don't be fooled by good numbers early in the evening!! REMEMBER what happen to Jimmy!!
Vote like you're life depended upon it!!
I don’t think it’s likely that we’ll have the results on the night of the election. Especially if Pennsylvania hasn’t changed its rule on processing mail-in ballots before Election Day and Georgia now has this absurd hand counting rule.
That said, if Harris over performs in Michigan and Wisconsin and manages to eke out a win in North Carolina, that will greatly increase the likelihood of my ability to sleep on Tuesday night.
It will be a day or two for PA
I see it being a day or two for Georgia as well with that stupid hand count rule. “Oops! I lost one.”
Pennsylvania has not changed its rule, much to our aggravation.
Like you often say, polls don't mean much, but they do seem to reflect trendlines pretty well. So, yay!
I have taken my own ad hoc survey of voters where I live, Georgia. Kamala wins by a lot, and 0 voters for Trump (a couple are Republicans who are one sitting this one out or are too embarrassed to say they're voting for Trump). It's not the most accurate poll. It mostly demonstrates what kind of people I hang with in Georgia. And what kind I don't.
That said, my poll is probably as accurate as Nate Cohn's Siena monstrosity, and the sample size (about 10) isn't much smaller.
😉
Thermometers have their purpose.
A reader from Nebraska here - I deeply appreciate that you highlighted the very real possibility that a Senate seat may shift parties in our state! This is an outcome that many of us have growing hope for. One issue I take with your post, however, is that several times Dan Osborn's last name is given as Bishop. (?!) Somehow that must have gotten past your editors - is there any way that can be corrected? Getting the name right is pretty important!
It’s fixed thx
Hi Jay - it still says "Bishop" in the emailed newsletter. Maybe you can send out a correction...?
Just donated to Dan Osborn, thank you, Jay, for the coverage! Everyone, please consider helping Colin Allred so we can finally drown Cruz with our Blue Wave!🌊Thank you!!
www.colinallred.com
It got fixed. I saw the fix.
I like your focus on likely voters. Also some candidates have soft, tribal support - think Scott and Cruz. Both men are widely loathed and not just by Democrats. Add in a problematic GOP presidential candidate and I think there going to be a lot of voters who cast cross ballot votes or stay home and are just too embarrassed to tell it to a pollster. I also think these embarrassed voters may make a difference in a number of other races. So, I am going to go out on a limb and say there are going to be some pleasant surprises on election night. I am also going to put my money where my mouth is and throw a little cash to candidates running against other detestable rethugs.
Thank you for the donations!
As a Texan, I can tell you that he ticked off a lot of people, regardless of party, when we were freezing in our homes in 2021, and he went off to Mexico. I'm hoping voters remember that.
If this was 2022, it would have an impact on the race. Most average voters have the electoral attention span of house flies. That doesn't mean some don't remember - it does emphasize that it may not matter unless he does something similar this election cycle.
Collin Allred frequently reminds them in his ads. I can tell the Dems must think his prospects are good bc he has appeared on so many msnbc shows!!
About 2-3x/week. Also Angela Alsobrooks might beat Larry Hogan
Those are my thoughts as well.
It doesn't hurt that Florida has an abortion bill on its ballot.
Good for you. I have all over the country for serious critical races. I’m in Ca.
After the absolute devastation last night from hurricane Helene, Florida needs some good news and new leadership- let’s get skeletor Scott out and finally get someone in office that supports Floridians! DMP allllllllthe way!
I’m worried about those people under those two leaders.
I’m especially worried due to knowing the area it hit, they aren’t the most well off people in the state and need the assistance a lot more than others and are about to be left to fend for themselves in a lot of ways thanks to mismanagement on the state level. Then blame the current federal administration instead of where the blame rightfully belongs
Yup same Same
As Always. Yet they love
Socialist money when disaster happens.
Imagine if Project 2025 was already in play. They wouldn't have the federal government watching their backs at all. We need to get more Blue seats period.
That is an excellent point. I fear you are correct.
👍🏼👍🏼
In my very humble opinion, the NYT has become biased.
Correct. Canceled that rag.
Same here, awhile ago. I still see headlines.
As do I, Carol. They keep trying to lure me back. I quit in 2016 because they were instrumental in electing Trump. Went back in 2020 just before the election. Quit again. I now have many Substack.com heroines and heroes.
Exactly. Give the NYT money to the Substack writers who actually give news analysis.
Ditto!
Definitely. Their latest biased headline: “Harris Heads to the Border, Trying to Project Toughness Against Trump.”
Grrrrrrrr.
I think Florida might actually be play as well. The abortion and marijuana amendments should help drive college students to the polls.
In addition, Scott is not popular. Barely won last time.
The Dems do have to overcome DeStalins voter suppression and 100,000 republican voter registration but I think it’s doable. 🤞if college students and thirty somethings show up.
I wrote about why Florida is def in play earlier, yes!
👍🏼👍🏼🙏🏽
I recently posted that "The Las Vegas Review Journal, owned by mega Trump donor Adelson family, reported Nevada is a dead heat right now. That means Harris is up by at least 6 points, after accounting for the big biased thumb the owners put on the scale."
I guess I should have gone with +7.
😆🙏🏽
Here is the article I wrote back on August 1 about the Texas Senate race and why the data shows that Colin really can win this race. Since then, Ted Cruz has just stuck his foot in his mouth more and more and my next article (still learning how to write these) is on how Ted Cruz’s ads are just attempting to distract Texas voters from his horrible record and how the last 12 years have been all about himself.
Now that Allred is polling ahead of Cruz, and Harris now within 4 of Trump, get ready to watch Texas make history. And do you know what is still true since I wrote this? Beto is still out there registering voters and we expect 2 million on top of the 1 million that we had as of March.
https://open.substack.com/pub/lizahameline/p/what-if-2018-wasnt-really-about-beto?r=3ga4k&utm_medium=ios
Thx for that news. Beto is my hero. I supported him from Ca. when he ran last time.
In March, 2023, the Nebraska lege restored voting rights to felons, but this July, the Republican AG said it was unconstitutional, which takes some 7,000 voters, many in the Omaha area, off the rolls. Interesting timing, isn't it???
Don't the courts get to decide what's constitutional?
Yes, eventually; but first the lawyers now have to file for a Stay & then appeal it to the courts. All of that takes enormous time. The election will be over b4 there’s a decision
Courts make semi-final determinations (potentially subject to future court decisions), but technically all topline federal and state officials are sworn to uphold the US Constitution (and their state constitutions, for state officials). This is why it was at least procedurally legitimate for some state Secretaries of State to issue decisions that Trump was ineligible for their state's ballots under the (US) Fourteenth Amendment, until they were effectively overruled by SCOTUS in March.
Yes, but for some reason our Secretary of State, Bob Evnen decided to take Attorney General Mike Hilger's written opinion as a valid enough reason to put out an order that no former felons will be allowed to register to vote. As for those who have already been able to vote under an older law that allowed felons to vote after 2 years, Hilgers declared that law unconstitutional as well, so it will be up to the courts to rule on whether Evnen had the legal right to deny the vote to a segment of our population. The Nebraska Supreme Court has yet to issue their ruling. https://www.pbs.org/newshour/show/nebraska-supreme-court-to-decide-if-lawmakers-there-can-restore-voting-rights-to-felons
Republicans love voter suppression, intimidation & whatever else they can do to win
Rrrrr
It’s Dan Osborn, not Bishop. 😊
Thank you, Jay. We will take this with cautious hope.