A Deep Dive on Weaponized Polling

We all need to be wary and skeptical given what’s happening

I’m writing today for The Big Picture substack, with a deep dive into weaponized polling out later this afternoon. Here’s a teaser:

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Election analyst Simon Rosenberg recently noted that of the last 15 general election polls released for Pennsylvania, a state viewed by both sides as key to any electoral victory, 12 have right-wing or GOP affiliations. Rosenberg warned,

“Their campaign to game the polling averages and make it appear like Trump is winning—when he isn't—escalated in [the] last few days.”

What does the GOP and the Trump campaign gain by polluting the poll averages with bad data? In today’s piece, I review what happened with the polls during the 2022 midterms and what lessons we ought to have learned. Then I’ll give some examples of some of the more egregious partisan weaponized polling today to demonstrate how the GOP has sought to put its fingers on the electoral scales. 

I’ll discuss three broad reasons why it’s to their advantage to prove the race is “tied” rather than that Trump continues to trail. Finally, I’ll offer some guidance on how we push back against the negative poll vibe and maintain our collective sanity and sense of determination as the election draws to a close.

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To receive the whole piece in your inbox when it publishes later today, be sure you’re subscribed to The Big Picture. To sign up (for free, or even better was one of our valued paid supporters), click the button below!

One more thing:

On Tuesday October 22 at 8pm ET / 5pm PT, I will be hosting a live stream with attorney and activist Robert Hubbell as part of Substack’s Election Dialogues, featuring many of the top political writers on this platform. I’m looking forward to a robust discussion about how legacy media is failing this moment, where the election stands today, and how to survive the anxiety and angst around it!

I read three other newsletters every morning: Heather Cox Richardson, Joyce Vance, and Robert Hubbell. If you’re not subscribed to Today’s Edition by Hubbell, I highly recommend it.

To attend the livestream, you’ll need the Substack app. If you don’t have it yet, you can download the app at the store. We’ll be broadcasting live from within it, heaven help us. It’s my first attempting any such a joint live stream, so I appreciate your grace and understanding! Hope to see you live next Tuesday—

Jay