"What does the GOP and the Trump campaign gain by polluting the poll averages with bad data? "
Easy, he gets to claim he won when he loses. It's part of the plan to try an throw the election to the House of Representatives by claiming everything is "rigged." We have to be ready for it.
I find it hard to believe polls reporting of a very close race between a serious NORMAL candidate and an indicted lifelong career criminal and fraud untethered to reality and his fast talking partner that admits he lies to gain attention.
My bigger fear is of the GOP controlled states as they do all they can to obstruct and intimidate voters.
Actual facts:
There won’t be fraud cause there never was in 2020.
Trump clearly knows he’s going to lose because he’s already setting the stage for election denial.
Most election fraud found in 2020 was in Trump’s favor.
If there WAS election fraud against Trump, then good.
This "Kamala removes stubborn orange stains" shirt is the funniest 2024 election tee 👇 🤣
"I read three other newsletters every morning: Heather Cox Richardson, Joyce Vance, and Robert Hubbell..."
Jay, how do you limit and prioritize your Substack readings? Not only do I read those aforementioned, but find myself reading a dozen or more that show up on my feed! Status Kuo, Morning Memo, Jeff Tiedrich, Bulwark, Wonkette, Aaron Rupar...I can't stop! Compulsive-reading syndrome, or something...FOMO?
Scott Dworkin is another good one. He picks out where the media is failing and campaigns to make them more accountable, if you notice WaPo and NYT type sites change their headlines on an article, it's often because Scott has motivated people to email and Tweet them to change.
This is the crux of Trump's first impeachment. He wanted Zelenskyy to announce an 'investigation' into the Biden's dealings in Ukraine as quid-pro-quo for the release of military aid and a meeting at the White House in an attempt to influence the presidential election. He subsequently obstructed justice by ignoring subpoenas and refusing to turn over documents Trump refuses to admit that any rules apply to him. It's up to us to disabuse him of that notion!
Whoever missed it should read Elaine Kamarck's: How gender gaps could tip the presidential race in 2024. She's a director at the ever reliable Brookings Institution. This painstaking analysis examines 2020 battleground state centering on two electorates: Men & Women. Simple!
She concludes that "if the gender gap in presidential preference remains the same but men’s turnout increases dramatically relative to 2020, it will be good for Trump; if women’s turnout stays the same as in 2020, it could be a good year for Harris; if it increases, it could be a very good year for her."
Because Trump terminated Roe, it's probably an understatement to say that women are likely to increase their 2020 turnout this time around.
Jay, I also read Hubbell, HCR, and Joyce Vance each day along with your column. I also read Tiedrich, Matt Stoller, Audra Watkins, The Bulwark and a few others. I also read The Guardian, AP(sometimes), several US independent presses, and European press since I live in Europe right now. I am going to pass on subscribing to anything else, but hope you will share some of your thinking in the Big Picture as well. Otherwise I will just have to miss it.
Just a thought. Trump is not mentally fit to run. However, the GOP wants his base. If they remove him, chances are they will not vote for his replacement. So, they keep him and if they win they will replace with Vance within a few months and have a young, smart, dictator to do their bidding. And that’s scary.
I also subscribe to those Substacks plus Dan Pfeiffer, Adam Kinzinger and Laura Brill - The Civics Center. Laura is an attorney who clerked under RBG at the Supreme Court. Laura's focus is on getting 18 year olds registered and voting. Look forward to your analysis this afternoon.
Considering the mainstream media continues with it's sanesplaining dumpster and his cronies and either doesn't report on the democrats or gives no credit to Kamala or Tim ! It is soooooo frustrating considering all the crap that dumpster and his Maga peons have done ! I am going to have to increase my anxiety meds to make it thru this election because if dumpster wins , the same shit will be happening in Canada with the right-wingers here who want a fascist regime and they have already started in Ontario, New Brunswick and Alberta and soon to be in beautiful British Columbia. We don't need it here and I , personally, don't want it here ! Please vote responsibly!
Thanks for this. We Dems really need to be reminded of this phenomenon. It’s far too easy to give in to the hysteria and slow our primitive brain to trigger fear and doubt and anxiety. We need to quiet our minds and stay focused.
I am starting to wonder why we are so focused on the election. Biden won by a ton last time and they almost took it by force on Jan 6th. They clearly don’t even care if they win. They have learned their lessons and will use force and the House and SCOTUS to do their dirty work. We say, “we need to prepare.” What can we do other than vote? I want to know what the govt is preparing to do. Nat’l Guard at polling/ballot sites? We “played by the rules” and lost SCOTUS. What legal/ military steps can we take? I feel like we are just operating on a wing and a prayer. They will not be following any of the rules. And I am typically an optimist!
You might want to check this website from time to time to get an idea of what Marc Elias and attorneys associated with Democracy Docket are doing and dealing with. https://www.democracydocket.com/
I believe, also, that there are actions being taken in anticipation of violence that may erupt in some states where supporters of Trump reject the results if Harris/Walz wins the election in their state.
"What does the GOP and the Trump campaign gain by polluting the poll averages with bad data? "
Easy, he gets to claim he won when he loses. It's part of the plan to try an throw the election to the House of Representatives by claiming everything is "rigged." We have to be ready for it.
I find it hard to believe polls reporting of a very close race between a serious NORMAL candidate and an indicted lifelong career criminal and fraud untethered to reality and his fast talking partner that admits he lies to gain attention.
My bigger fear is of the GOP controlled states as they do all they can to obstruct and intimidate voters.
Actual facts:
There won’t be fraud cause there never was in 2020.
Trump clearly knows he’s going to lose because he’s already setting the stage for election denial.
Most election fraud found in 2020 was in Trump’s favor.
If there WAS election fraud against Trump, then good.
This "Kamala removes stubborn orange stains" shirt is the funniest 2024 election tee 👇 🤣
https://libtees-2.creator-spring.com/listing/votek
Bah
I always liked a gag in Mad magazine on politics, a segment called: "You Know your campaign's in trouble when...."
And the punchline was "You take a poll of your staff and find yourself trailing."
Well, many of his former staff seem to think he's unfit...
"I read three other newsletters every morning: Heather Cox Richardson, Joyce Vance, and Robert Hubbell..."
Jay, how do you limit and prioritize your Substack readings? Not only do I read those aforementioned, but find myself reading a dozen or more that show up on my feed! Status Kuo, Morning Memo, Jeff Tiedrich, Bulwark, Wonkette, Aaron Rupar...I can't stop! Compulsive-reading syndrome, or something...FOMO?
Scott Dworkin is another good one. He picks out where the media is failing and campaigns to make them more accountable, if you notice WaPo and NYT type sites change their headlines on an article, it's often because Scott has motivated people to email and Tweet them to change.
On my list, which is impossibly overloaded with election-orientated newsletters!
all I can say is, THANK YOU. you are such a wealth of information. In these times, information is the road to sanity and success.
This is the crux of Trump's first impeachment. He wanted Zelenskyy to announce an 'investigation' into the Biden's dealings in Ukraine as quid-pro-quo for the release of military aid and a meeting at the White House in an attempt to influence the presidential election. He subsequently obstructed justice by ignoring subpoenas and refusing to turn over documents Trump refuses to admit that any rules apply to him. It's up to us to disabuse him of that notion!
Whoever missed it should read Elaine Kamarck's: How gender gaps could tip the presidential race in 2024. She's a director at the ever reliable Brookings Institution. This painstaking analysis examines 2020 battleground state centering on two electorates: Men & Women. Simple!
She concludes that "if the gender gap in presidential preference remains the same but men’s turnout increases dramatically relative to 2020, it will be good for Trump; if women’s turnout stays the same as in 2020, it could be a good year for Harris; if it increases, it could be a very good year for her."
Because Trump terminated Roe, it's probably an understatement to say that women are likely to increase their 2020 turnout this time around.
Joseph in Fairport, NY
Oops! Here's the link:
https://www.brookings.edu/articles/how-gender-gaps-could-tip-the-presidential-race-in-2024/
Jay, I also read Hubbell, HCR, and Joyce Vance each day along with your column. I also read Tiedrich, Matt Stoller, Audra Watkins, The Bulwark and a few others. I also read The Guardian, AP(sometimes), several US independent presses, and European press since I live in Europe right now. I am going to pass on subscribing to anything else, but hope you will share some of your thinking in the Big Picture as well. Otherwise I will just have to miss it.
Just a thought. Trump is not mentally fit to run. However, the GOP wants his base. If they remove him, chances are they will not vote for his replacement. So, they keep him and if they win they will replace with Vance within a few months and have a young, smart, dictator to do their bidding. And that’s scary.
I also subscribe to those Substacks plus Dan Pfeiffer, Adam Kinzinger and Laura Brill - The Civics Center. Laura is an attorney who clerked under RBG at the Supreme Court. Laura's focus is on getting 18 year olds registered and voting. Look forward to your analysis this afternoon.
I read the same three AND whatever Jay Kuo writes for the day. Keeps me sane!
Considering the mainstream media continues with it's sanesplaining dumpster and his cronies and either doesn't report on the democrats or gives no credit to Kamala or Tim ! It is soooooo frustrating considering all the crap that dumpster and his Maga peons have done ! I am going to have to increase my anxiety meds to make it thru this election because if dumpster wins , the same shit will be happening in Canada with the right-wingers here who want a fascist regime and they have already started in Ontario, New Brunswick and Alberta and soon to be in beautiful British Columbia. We don't need it here and I , personally, don't want it here ! Please vote responsibly!
Thanks for this. We Dems really need to be reminded of this phenomenon. It’s far too easy to give in to the hysteria and slow our primitive brain to trigger fear and doubt and anxiety. We need to quiet our minds and stay focused.
The sad part is : the media seems to be going along with this bullcrap .
They had an article about this dishonest gop tactic then closed out the newscast with another story about how it's a dead heat now .
Shameless but that's what we expect from the republican party these days .
-Nate
I am starting to wonder why we are so focused on the election. Biden won by a ton last time and they almost took it by force on Jan 6th. They clearly don’t even care if they win. They have learned their lessons and will use force and the House and SCOTUS to do their dirty work. We say, “we need to prepare.” What can we do other than vote? I want to know what the govt is preparing to do. Nat’l Guard at polling/ballot sites? We “played by the rules” and lost SCOTUS. What legal/ military steps can we take? I feel like we are just operating on a wing and a prayer. They will not be following any of the rules. And I am typically an optimist!
There are hundreds of attorneys prepared to respond to lawsuits filed by the losers, and many have also already taken legal action against legislative efforts in some red states to delay certification or other extra-legal actions in order to force certification by Congress into the House of Representatives. Here's one example of the latter: https://www.nbcnews.com/politics/2024-election/local-election-officials-georgia-must-certify-results-judge-rules-rcna175467
You might want to check this website from time to time to get an idea of what Marc Elias and attorneys associated with Democracy Docket are doing and dealing with. https://www.democracydocket.com/
I believe, also, that there are actions being taken in anticipation of violence that may erupt in some states where supporters of Trump reject the results if Harris/Walz wins the election in their state.
This explains a lot about the NYT polls
https://substack.com/@borowitzreport/note/c-72694194?r=13ceb
https://www.threads.net/@gtconway3/post/DBKW4dARdOr?xmt=AQGzNGiViqU8cXFYolxGUktCX5ri7CncyXv_AxPQUH00kQ
Not sure what this means exactly but I’m looking on the bright side.