In this brief window when my sister is looking after my newborn this morning, let’s have a discussion on voter enthusiasm, seen through the lens of voter registration.
What hits me is the number of people in the ten states with abortion on the ballot. In almost every state from Arizona to Colorado to Florida and so on, TWICE the number of signatures required were delivered. If you signed that ballot amendment petition, surely you'll be going to the polls to vote for a candidate who supports abortion in your state.
Yes, and let's also hope they pay attention to their state legislature as well. Here in Ohio, the Republicans all toe the line on abortion, gerrymandering, and voter suppression, just to name a few. My hope is here, as well as the other 10 states, the Republicans pay a steep price for this
Trump has abandoned all but the swing states, Daniel. There is very little money for The Rs down ballots so our chances are looking better and better every day. Trump's ground game is weak compared to the Ds. Also, the Harris/Walz campaign has a massive war chest which they will wield effectively in October leading up to the election! If you live in one of the swing states, you will be seeing tons of political ads and most of them will be pro D!
Many of us in NC are Democrats who register as Independents. We do this because in the primaries we can choose which primary we vote in. If we live in Republican districts, we can vote for the Republican who is the least offensive. Often there are no Democrats running. Also registering as Independent helps protect a district from gerrymandering. Florida is a closed primary state, and when we lived there we registered as Republicans in order to vote in primaries. Independents in Florida cannot vote in a primary. The press has failed to pick up on this, and believes that that the registration party of a voter predicts how a voter will vote. Pollsters think the same thing. This makes all those predictions a little less accurate. Also in many states registration as a Democrat makes one more susceptible to being purged. We fly beneath the radar.
I am a Democrat-leaning unaffiliated voter in N.C., too. I voted for George Wimbish in the primary where he challenged Jesse Helms. Felt sorry for the man! I'm glad choosing no party means I am helping my state.
Same here in AZ. Independents make up a third of our voters.
I know someone who votes in primaries for the craziest GQP candidate (yes, we have plenty to chose from) figuring that the crazier the candidate in a general election, the worse they will do, decreasing the likelihood they will win.
Glad you’re discussing this today, Jay. The main thrust should be to make sure that everyone is registered! How they ultimately vote will be forever private.
Voting rights of overseas voters are protected by federal law, The Uniformed and Overseas Citizens Absentee Voting Act signed into law in 1986 by President Reagan (!)
More than six MILLION Americans, both military and civilian, reside in foreign countries. We make a difference in close elections!
Have your US friends residing overseas visit votefromabroad.org and follow the state-specific instructions.
I lived in Guatemala and Mexico from 2018 until last year, when I returned to the US. Democrats Abroad helped me learn to cast my vote from abroad. I phone banked for DA in Mexico, helping educate US citizens living abroad about how to vote. It is a huge voting bloc. DA is a worldwide, all-volunteer organization.
I wonder if this slug of registrations and likely voters could be what the polls are missing. I don't believe it's going to be a "razor thin margin" as most pundits claim.
In 2016, I naively expected Hillary to win a Reagan-like EC victory; I never imagined that (White) women would vote 53% in favor of a serial sexual predator over one of their own. As long as I live, I'll never understand it.
I hope Ms. Storm is correct, that women will drive this election and that women are angry.
@Suzanne Kelly - from what you wrote, you believe a blue wave, yes? I asked a friend if they'd checked the Farmer's Almanac for swing states where early or mail in voting may be more restrictive.
Joan, I learned something from 2016... so I won't count my chickens etc etc. However, I wonder if the polls are failing to capture several important types of voters. If I were a woman in my mid teens through 30s, I'd be very anxious about losing access to contraception/reproductive health care, and would be *very* likely to turn out on election day. Not sure if polls are capturing the inclinations of those women in particular.
I don't know if women's enthusiasm for Harris is specifically because she's a woman. Maybe that's true in some cases. But I think it is because of abortion and because of her policies and outlook and her personality. How many women were enthusiastic about Hillary Clinton? I wasn't, but I am about Harris and I'm neither Black nor South Asian. It's not an identity thing. It's the whole package.
Love what you wrote, Paula B., about the 'whole package'. I concur. I'm old, Norther European Jewish, and enthused beyond even 2008! My entire being has felt greater joy than I've felt in a long time.
I'm 60 (not sure if that counts as old) and also Ashkenazi Jewish; my mother was born in Germany in 1931. And here we are in 2024, and the Republicans have nominated someone who wants to copy the Nazi playbook of mass deportations, concentration camps, and denial of LGBTQ+ rights.
Harris/Walz won't be the first candidates I'm voting for rather than voting against the opponent--I was enthusiastic about Obama, and happy to vote for Hillary Clinton in 2016--but four years ago I voted for Biden because he was the Democratic nominee, not because he'd been my first choice.
You're not old, Vicki. My mother was born four years before yours but I'm fourteen years older than you. It is amazing that fascism has come back. I thought we were making so much progress. I wonder if it will ever be possible to stamp out all this hatred.
Me as well. I am a huge Bernie supporter, though, and will always vote for him first. Obviously that's moot now but I just love him. I voted for McGovern in my first election--1972. I think he's the only person I ever voted for in the primary who made it to the general election.
Kamala has electrified the voting public, not just the base, IMO. The video of her talking about how she cooks greens was an amazing contrast to the donut hole's awkward video in the donut shop.
And, of course, the mouth of methane, as poorly educated as he is, is at least smart enough not to be seen chatting it up with people.
These numbers are a lot more convincing than the polls, which I still think are underestimating Kamala's strength. But don't pay attention to me. No way I thought 2016 would happen.
Please do report on your first spittle experience. It's an important hazing ritual for all parents.
Not having had a spittle experience (childfree cat woman here!), I'll go w/ the donut shop v. any interaction of Harris or Walz with others. Walz and Gov Cooper getting shakes and discussing hush puppies; Harris in a BBQ joint discussing work with a dad and his son working there; Walz working the soft-serv at the MN State Fair. Real people with good policies who care about us all.
It's ALL of us voters. In fact, I predict a landslide for Kamala and Tim. My 70-year-old husband is ALL IN for the Dem's, FULL BALLOT. We have a sign in our front yard for the FIRST TIME EVER for Elissa Slotkin. We're waiting for our Harris/Walz sign ordered 2 weeks ago (they are having problems with delivery because of the onslaught of orders, I understand). GO BLUE, FULL BALLOT!
I think so, too. We need to help people realize their vote counts, even if they don't live in a battleground state or district. I'm sure I'm preaching to the choir, so I'm really just saying out loud to push it into the ether — down ballot races are important, because we want to give Kamala majorities in the senate and house.
I think young people are one key to this. Joyce Vance and Laura Brill just talked about registering high school students. Very enlightening. Thanks for these numbers, too.
Vota Latino is registering a huge number of new voters. Their founder spoke at DNC. Also Veterans, Labor Unions, Teachers. My local Democratic Party here is mentioning voter registration when they canvas in Wisconsin and Michigan on the weekends.
A young cousin just started college and is voting here first vote in her college town. Her mom told me she's waiting to vote in person because it's her first, which for me too, in the '68 Ohio Primary, was a momentous event. Loved what Vance wrote about registering h.s. students. We need to do more to encourage engagement and actions.
I can certainly understand the sentiment of wanting to cast her 1st vote on election day itself. However, she should keep in mind the high stakes of this election (if Trump wins, it could be her 1st AND last vote!) and the possibly of being incapacitated with Covid, the flu or some other ailment, as well as extremely adverse weather conditions on election day. Not to mention nefarious activities by MAGAts (such as deliberate traffic tie-ups) to prevent voters in Democratic areas from getting to the polls.
Absolutely! Everyone IMO should Early Vote!! I am a huge believer in "never put off until tomorrow what you can do today" -- and especially for voting! I used to live in the north and the point about November weather a
Agree. Plus getting a ballot before hand (even a sample ballot) gives you all the time you need to study the whole thing, research the candidates, and double check your selections. Most important for down-ballot candidates - especially judges - as they are typically not as well known as top of the ballot candidates.
Just speaking from my own experience, early voting is definitely the way to go. I voted on Election Day many times. There was always a line and I always felt rushed. I voted plenty of time at early voting locations. Although there fewer locations, they’re open for at least a week so almost no lines and you’re under cover if you have to wait. I was never rushed or afraid. Now, I vote absentee. I can track my vote…..I know when it’s mailed, when it’s received at the election office and when it’s counted. If there’s a problem (such as signature acceptance which is frequent), I have time to fix it BEFORE Election Day. I’ll never vote on Election Day again. I live in a bright red district so I would be somewhat scared/intimidated now on Election Day.
Thanks for showing this info from NC, my state, that used to be a leader in the southeast for working across the aisle for the good of its citizens until, that is, before it was targeted by republicans in 2010 when it turned a violent red. I hope we can eventually break that hold and return to being a more progressive state foe the good of everyone; not just a few. As usual, it looks as though, once again, it will be women who have to clean up the mess that mostly men have made so ladies, keep registering and let’s do this!
I want to ping on something that Jay didn’t mention, and that is the leadership of the Democratic Party in NC. In a real upheaval a couple years ago, most of the older leadership was thrown out and young leadership moved in. Our party chair is Anderson Clayton - she was elected at age 25 at that time. And two other senior leaders are also a generation younger than the ones they beat.
So our party leadership is of, and understands, the younger voters. That is going to help, too.
And a big shout-out to the dynamic young Anderson Clayton in NC who has been EVERYWHERE spreading joy and hope as Chair of the NC Democratic Party. SImon Rosenberg brought her on our Hopium group zoom many months ago and we have been all in ever since.
It is very valuable to be reminded that, although polls are valid indicators, there are other sources of information. The press seems to place a larger than helpful emphasis on polls, and that does not help give as full a view as possible . Also, as much as possible voters need to be reminded of the fuller picture. We are not just voting for President and Vice President. Local, state, and Congressional options can make or break too.
All good news Jay! Thanks for the details, we love details. The polls were always going to tighten, but I also know these new voters are not being polled. I always say don't be complacent, but right now our main concern is trump trying to steal the election after November 5th.
I run a nonprofit that maintains hiking trails and rental cabins over a 45,000 sq. mile footprint in the Mid-Atlantic region. The footprint is mostly in Trump country. I know it is anecdotal, but I'm seeing far fewer Trump/Republican/MAGA signs than in '16 or '20. In particular, far fewer businesses are displaying Trump signage. I hope that's an omen.
I’ve corrected a typo that should say +12 instead of +6.
I hope that you’re getting some sleep Dad.
What hits me is the number of people in the ten states with abortion on the ballot. In almost every state from Arizona to Colorado to Florida and so on, TWICE the number of signatures required were delivered. If you signed that ballot amendment petition, surely you'll be going to the polls to vote for a candidate who supports abortion in your state.
That's awesome. And doubtful that polls are picking this up.
This is a great point
Yes, and let's also hope they pay attention to their state legislature as well. Here in Ohio, the Republicans all toe the line on abortion, gerrymandering, and voter suppression, just to name a few. My hope is here, as well as the other 10 states, the Republicans pay a steep price for this
Trump has abandoned all but the swing states, Daniel. There is very little money for The Rs down ballots so our chances are looking better and better every day. Trump's ground game is weak compared to the Ds. Also, the Harris/Walz campaign has a massive war chest which they will wield effectively in October leading up to the election! If you live in one of the swing states, you will be seeing tons of political ads and most of them will be pro D!
Many of us in NC are Democrats who register as Independents. We do this because in the primaries we can choose which primary we vote in. If we live in Republican districts, we can vote for the Republican who is the least offensive. Often there are no Democrats running. Also registering as Independent helps protect a district from gerrymandering. Florida is a closed primary state, and when we lived there we registered as Republicans in order to vote in primaries. Independents in Florida cannot vote in a primary. The press has failed to pick up on this, and believes that that the registration party of a voter predicts how a voter will vote. Pollsters think the same thing. This makes all those predictions a little less accurate. Also in many states registration as a Democrat makes one more susceptible to being purged. We fly beneath the radar.
Wow, this is really important! Jay, I hope you do some posts about this.
I am a Democrat-leaning unaffiliated voter in N.C., too. I voted for George Wimbish in the primary where he challenged Jesse Helms. Felt sorry for the man! I'm glad choosing no party means I am helping my state.
Excellent points Kristine!
I’m in NC too and wondered how the newly registered independents are factored in to the NC numbers, or if they’re not being counted.
Smart move!
Wow. Did not know that. Thanks for sharing!
Same here in AZ. Independents make up a third of our voters.
I know someone who votes in primaries for the craziest GQP candidate (yes, we have plenty to chose from) figuring that the crazier the candidate in a general election, the worse they will do, decreasing the likelihood they will win.
Glad you’re discussing this today, Jay. The main thrust should be to make sure that everyone is registered! How they ultimately vote will be forever private.
Voting rights of overseas voters are protected by federal law, The Uniformed and Overseas Citizens Absentee Voting Act signed into law in 1986 by President Reagan (!)
More than six MILLION Americans, both military and civilian, reside in foreign countries. We make a difference in close elections!
Have your US friends residing overseas visit votefromabroad.org and follow the state-specific instructions.
I lived in Guatemala and Mexico from 2018 until last year, when I returned to the US. Democrats Abroad helped me learn to cast my vote from abroad. I phone banked for DA in Mexico, helping educate US citizens living abroad about how to vote. It is a huge voting bloc. DA is a worldwide, all-volunteer organization.
People in state with new voter id laws, including NC and PA need to make sure they have the proper identification.
In PA, only first time voters need ID, and it can be a driver’s license or even a student or employee ID.
https://www.pa.gov/en/agencies/vote/voter-support/new-voters.html
I wonder if this slug of registrations and likely voters could be what the polls are missing. I don't believe it's going to be a "razor thin margin" as most pundits claim.
I agree, women will drive this election and we are angry!
In 2016, I naively expected Hillary to win a Reagan-like EC victory; I never imagined that (White) women would vote 53% in favor of a serial sexual predator over one of their own. As long as I live, I'll never understand it.
I hope Ms. Storm is correct, that women will drive this election and that women are angry.
STAY ANGRY!
@Suzanne Kelly - from what you wrote, you believe a blue wave, yes? I asked a friend if they'd checked the Farmer's Almanac for swing states where early or mail in voting may be more restrictive.
Joan, I learned something from 2016... so I won't count my chickens etc etc. However, I wonder if the polls are failing to capture several important types of voters. If I were a woman in my mid teens through 30s, I'd be very anxious about losing access to contraception/reproductive health care, and would be *very* likely to turn out on election day. Not sure if polls are capturing the inclinations of those women in particular.
Please share this powerful 1 min ad from the Seneca Project as they say the silent part out loud.📣
https://x.com/senecaprojectus/status/1810372496878874790
I'd otherwise be glad to share it, but I left twitter after musk bought it and won't promote his platform in any way. 😕
I don't know if women's enthusiasm for Harris is specifically because she's a woman. Maybe that's true in some cases. But I think it is because of abortion and because of her policies and outlook and her personality. How many women were enthusiastic about Hillary Clinton? I wasn't, but I am about Harris and I'm neither Black nor South Asian. It's not an identity thing. It's the whole package.
Love what you wrote, Paula B., about the 'whole package'. I concur. I'm old, Norther European Jewish, and enthused beyond even 2008! My entire being has felt greater joy than I've felt in a long time.
I'm old and Ashkenazi Jewish, Joan, and I finally feel that I can vote for someone instead of against someone else. 😀
I'm 60 (not sure if that counts as old) and also Ashkenazi Jewish; my mother was born in Germany in 1931. And here we are in 2024, and the Republicans have nominated someone who wants to copy the Nazi playbook of mass deportations, concentration camps, and denial of LGBTQ+ rights.
Harris/Walz won't be the first candidates I'm voting for rather than voting against the opponent--I was enthusiastic about Obama, and happy to vote for Hillary Clinton in 2016--but four years ago I voted for Biden because he was the Democratic nominee, not because he'd been my first choice.
You're not old, Vicki. My mother was born four years before yours but I'm fourteen years older than you. It is amazing that fascism has come back. I thought we were making so much progress. I wonder if it will ever be possible to stamp out all this hatred.
Me too!! I was happy to vote for Obama, but thrilled to vote for Kamala!
Me as well. I am a huge Bernie supporter, though, and will always vote for him first. Obviously that's moot now but I just love him. I voted for McGovern in my first election--1972. I think he's the only person I ever voted for in the primary who made it to the general election.
I’m excited because she will be a great leader who is also a woman.
Kamala has electrified the voting public, not just the base, IMO. The video of her talking about how she cooks greens was an amazing contrast to the donut hole's awkward video in the donut shop.
And, of course, the mouth of methane, as poorly educated as he is, is at least smart enough not to be seen chatting it up with people.
These numbers are a lot more convincing than the polls, which I still think are underestimating Kamala's strength. But don't pay attention to me. No way I thought 2016 would happen.
Please do report on your first spittle experience. It's an important hazing ritual for all parents.
Not having had a spittle experience (childfree cat woman here!), I'll go w/ the donut shop v. any interaction of Harris or Walz with others. Walz and Gov Cooper getting shakes and discussing hush puppies; Harris in a BBQ joint discussing work with a dad and his son working there; Walz working the soft-serv at the MN State Fair. Real people with good policies who care about us all.
I'm very excited about the childfree cat woman vote delivering the election to Kamala. You're the difference makers! 😺
It's ALL of us voters. In fact, I predict a landslide for Kamala and Tim. My 70-year-old husband is ALL IN for the Dem's, FULL BALLOT. We have a sign in our front yard for the FIRST TIME EVER for Elissa Slotkin. We're waiting for our Harris/Walz sign ordered 2 weeks ago (they are having problems with delivery because of the onslaught of orders, I understand). GO BLUE, FULL BALLOT!
I think so, too. We need to help people realize their vote counts, even if they don't live in a battleground state or district. I'm sure I'm preaching to the choir, so I'm really just saying out loud to push it into the ether — down ballot races are important, because we want to give Kamala majorities in the senate and house.
And Kamala was in the BAND in school (French horn, xylophone, and kettle drums)! If she didn't already have my vote, she just got it there!
Jay, you might want to correct the typo re a 6+ gap "between 56 and 44." That would be 12+, not 6.
Fixed thx
Give New Ba a break haha -- he is sleep-deprived and Math Is Hard!
I think young people are one key to this. Joyce Vance and Laura Brill just talked about registering high school students. Very enlightening. Thanks for these numbers, too.
Vota Latino is registering a huge number of new voters. Their founder spoke at DNC. Also Veterans, Labor Unions, Teachers. My local Democratic Party here is mentioning voter registration when they canvas in Wisconsin and Michigan on the weekends.
A young cousin just started college and is voting here first vote in her college town. Her mom told me she's waiting to vote in person because it's her first, which for me too, in the '68 Ohio Primary, was a momentous event. Loved what Vance wrote about registering h.s. students. We need to do more to encourage engagement and actions.
I can certainly understand the sentiment of wanting to cast her 1st vote on election day itself. However, she should keep in mind the high stakes of this election (if Trump wins, it could be her 1st AND last vote!) and the possibly of being incapacitated with Covid, the flu or some other ailment, as well as extremely adverse weather conditions on election day. Not to mention nefarious activities by MAGAts (such as deliberate traffic tie-ups) to prevent voters in Democratic areas from getting to the polls.
Absolutely! Everyone IMO should Early Vote!! I am a huge believer in "never put off until tomorrow what you can do today" -- and especially for voting! I used to live in the north and the point about November weather a
s a potential factor is spot on.
Agree. Plus getting a ballot before hand (even a sample ballot) gives you all the time you need to study the whole thing, research the candidates, and double check your selections. Most important for down-ballot candidates - especially judges - as they are typically not as well known as top of the ballot candidates.
Just speaking from my own experience, early voting is definitely the way to go. I voted on Election Day many times. There was always a line and I always felt rushed. I voted plenty of time at early voting locations. Although there fewer locations, they’re open for at least a week so almost no lines and you’re under cover if you have to wait. I was never rushed or afraid. Now, I vote absentee. I can track my vote…..I know when it’s mailed, when it’s received at the election office and when it’s counted. If there’s a problem (such as signature acceptance which is frequent), I have time to fix it BEFORE Election Day. I’ll never vote on Election Day again. I live in a bright red district so I would be somewhat scared/intimidated now on Election Day.
Thousands of college student study overseas every year.
They, too, need to visit votefromabroad.org and follow state-specific instructions how to obtain a ballot.
Thanks for showing this info from NC, my state, that used to be a leader in the southeast for working across the aisle for the good of its citizens until, that is, before it was targeted by republicans in 2010 when it turned a violent red. I hope we can eventually break that hold and return to being a more progressive state foe the good of everyone; not just a few. As usual, it looks as though, once again, it will be women who have to clean up the mess that mostly men have made so ladies, keep registering and let’s do this!
I want to ping on something that Jay didn’t mention, and that is the leadership of the Democratic Party in NC. In a real upheaval a couple years ago, most of the older leadership was thrown out and young leadership moved in. Our party chair is Anderson Clayton - she was elected at age 25 at that time. And two other senior leaders are also a generation younger than the ones they beat.
So our party leadership is of, and understands, the younger voters. That is going to help, too.
And a big shout-out to the dynamic young Anderson Clayton in NC who has been EVERYWHERE spreading joy and hope as Chair of the NC Democratic Party. SImon Rosenberg brought her on our Hopium group zoom many months ago and we have been all in ever since.
It is very valuable to be reminded that, although polls are valid indicators, there are other sources of information. The press seems to place a larger than helpful emphasis on polls, and that does not help give as full a view as possible . Also, as much as possible voters need to be reminded of the fuller picture. We are not just voting for President and Vice President. Local, state, and Congressional options can make or break too.
All good news Jay! Thanks for the details, we love details. The polls were always going to tighten, but I also know these new voters are not being polled. I always say don't be complacent, but right now our main concern is trump trying to steal the election after November 5th.
I run a nonprofit that maintains hiking trails and rental cabins over a 45,000 sq. mile footprint in the Mid-Atlantic region. The footprint is mostly in Trump country. I know it is anecdotal, but I'm seeing far fewer Trump/Republican/MAGA signs than in '16 or '20. In particular, far fewer businesses are displaying Trump signage. I hope that's an omen.
Thanks for this, especially when you are so busy💕
I would love to know whatnot looks like in Georgia and Pennsylvania.
Bonier will be on the Hopium members' chat tonight to update us
Thank you.