GOP in-fighting, a president on the fence, and the loss of Latino support give an up-and-comer like James Talarico a fairly decent chance to win statewide
Paxton leading the polls in Texas is symptomatic of how criminal fraudsters have gained complete control over the republican party. Paxton belongs in prison, not running for our senate.
I moved away from Texas almost 50 years ago (no regrets) but when I still lived there, a common refrain was "we have the best politicians money can buy." I heard that said a LOT and they were proud of it. It looks to me like not much has changed.
It might not be a factor, but there is a Texas tendency or trait (told to me by a Texan, and which I've checked out) that might affect the outcome. Texans have a history of going all-in for their heroes and their leaders WHEN THEY ARE WINNING. Texans love winners. They also have a history of abandoning them very quickly when they see them as LOSING. Texans HATE losers. Sam Houston all the way to the Dallas Cowboys could nod their heads on that one.
If Trump and MAGA are seen as losing because the US is seen as losing in Iran, the economy is seen as tanking, or the deportation of criminal aliens is seen as a failure, that Texas trait might come to the surface.
I will believe it when I see it. Though I continue to send positive thoughts and to visualize a Blue Wave. We all have to make this happen. And “woe is me” thoughts don’t help. In my universe, what we Think is what we Create.
Trump has touched all of us in negative ways. He and his policies and his group of stunningly incompetent henchmen/women have made everyone’s lives worse in ways both large and small.
So Blue Wave in 2026 to Hold the Fort until 2028 when we finally throw the autocratic criminals out and take back our democracy!
A warning sign is if Trump and Musk 'kiss and make up'. If Trump is desperate enough and his machinations to suppress voting don't work, he'll bring in Musk to work his magic on the 'vote counting machines' again.
I live in Texas and would love to see our felonious AG gone! If you only read his Wikipedia page you will see he got into politics at a young age and has been so successful at jobs that don’t pay much the he is now a multi-millionaire - all from sucking GOP hind tit! Cornyn is just as bad but hasn’t been so over the top that he was impeached. Ditto for Abbott, Paxton . . .
You left out the fact that Talarico represents generational change and is squeaky clean. He ran a near perfect campaign reaching out to voters from all backgrounds throughout the state. He’s peeled off maga voters, people of color and independents with his no hate optimistic agenda. His economic populism focus on top vs bottom instead of right vs left makes sense to Texans. And his moderate Christian stance and insistence on separation of church and state is the perfect anecdote to white Christian nationalism. He checks all the boxes and most people love him as much as maga fears him.
Talarico took a page from Beto's handbook. He ran a similar campaign, traveling the state and focusing on connecting with voters. His squeaky clean image is helping him overcome Beto's perceived shortcomings. Beto's political troubles started from something as mundane as a picture of him in a dress from his younger, wilder days. Oh how the repubs harped on that! And then when he stood on the presidential debate stage and said, "Hell yes, we're going to take your AR-15, your AK-47...," it pretty much ended any hope of getting elected in Texas.
For the record, I supported Beto, voted for him every chance I got, will vote for him again if the opportunity presents itself. He has shown over and over that he will work to help the people of TX, even if he's not holding an elected office.
When I lived in Texas, I never got my arms around the fact that every Texan I met was so nice, and I don't mean superficially. Genuinely nice people who will give the shirts off their backs for others.
Then, a guy like Beto comes around, and those nice people don't vote for him, but they'll flock to a guy like Paxton. Weird stuff.
I lived here my entire life and find your comment spot on. I can't wrap my mind around how the nicest people will vote to take away my rights and make my life so much more difficult, and they smile and hug me while they do it. Just so weird.
I tried not to like him because I’m a Crockett fan big time because I lived in Texarkana area while she was a public defender there and she’s an amazing person and always has been. A true woman of the people.
But he’s what a lot of people want. He’s not reactive in emotional and demonstrative ways which we are thoroughly sick of with the leadership we have now performing for some imagined audience they anre out of touch with. For me, he’s a little bit milk toast as they used to say. He doesn’t have much fire that comes across very well, but perhaps He has a good enough mind that he can learn the job and do good things for the state. Besides, giving it all away to the Titans of AI who have surpassed even big oil in their rape and pillage of our resources.
So I voted for him because I knew Texas would not vote for a fiery black woman who actually knows her job and tells it like it is too. You know… angry black woman syndrome.
I Hope he can gather in all the Crockett supporters and bring them to the polls. There are certainly enough people here who are totally sick of both Cornyn and Paxton.
Now if we could do something about Abbott we’d be in really good shape.
I used those same words after the primary - a perfect storm for Democrats. Let the Cornyn - Paxton battle begin. While Talarico comes out smelling like a rose.
We had two excellent candidates running for the Dem ticket. Kuddos to Jasmine Crockett (a formidable opponent) for immediately announcing her support for Talarico after the primaries, hopefully bringing her supporters into the Talarico camp. I expect to see more of her in the near future.
Texas went out of its way to lure Californians who were leaving their state because of property taxes and expenses. To the extent the Texas ploy worked, they lured in far more progressive people, people more likely to vote democratic. They have settled in and are now expressing themselves. Texas should be more careful about what they wish for.
The Californians I’m aware of that have moved from California (where I live) to Texas were all hard core MAGA and hated everything California except the higher wages and better pensions (many worked for government entities in California). High property taxes in California are a function of when and where someone bought their home because of the Prop 13 tax structure (the when) and if someone owns where the jurisdiction and developer setup Mello-Roos taxes that keep going up every year (the where). The California property tax rate (1 to 1.25 percent of the purchase price, not an annual upward assessment value) is actually lower than many states, including Texas.
Same can be said for Californians moving to Idaho.
I was one of the techies who moved to Texas from California, but it was for the cheaper housing. I loved CA and still do.
Property taxes were low on the list of reasons, low as in not being on the list at all. I don't remember the differences between the two states, so your description of the differences tracks. But the difference in actual property values at the time were crazy. In the northern suburbs of Austin, I was able to buy a house for a fraction of what the same house would have cost me in CA, so I did.
I would argue that the Californians who moved there around that time were a mix of people, just like everywhere. When Musk moved there, I began to worry about the political demographics of the newer arrivals (libertarian hucksters). I think that played out a bit, but I don't have any empirical evidence to back it up.
I find the Californians in the tech industry who moved to Austin to be a lot more liberal than the Californians who moved to the Hill Country (area between Austin and San Antonio), who generally tend to be MAGA to their core. I've lived in both areas, and I fled the Hill Country recently for that very reason. The Hill Country is so MAGA that the Texas Legislature has used it to gerrymander electoral districts in both San Antonio and Austin to dilute the liberal/progressive voting power of both of these areas. That's how I ended up with Chip Roy as my representative! :(
That one worries me too. The CA Dems really need to sit around a table and decide who is going to carry the water for the Dems and encourage the rest to drop out. They need someone who can come in 1st or 2nd in the primary. If there is nothing else obvious about recent elections, it's that fringe candidates cost the main candidates elections. It would be great if that wasn't the case, but the reality is that we're just not there and won't be without substantial election financing reform.
Local media here (CalMatters is best for statewide political and economic news) has been covering the Dems and efforts to convince those only polling 3 percent or less to drop out and endorse one of the top three Dems (currently running third, fourth, fifth behind the two Republicans). The lead is the current Republican Sheriff of Riverside County (elected position). He’s hard core far right wing.
From your mouth to God’s ear 🙏🏽 please!! I’m over the Repuklicants BS and the Orange Shitstain trying to stay in power for a 3rd term.. BLUE all day long every single day 24/7
I’m highly skeptical. Texans may be very unhappy with current events, but the state is incredibly anti-Dem outside of the big cities, especially the white population (I lived there years ago, and still have relatives there, who I do NOT talk to about politics). The only path I see for Talerico is if GOP turnout, especially among whites, completely collapses. The Latinos will swing for sure, but TX has refined the art of voter suppression, which will limit their impact. Whites there just aren’t going to vote for Dems (except in the cities), but if they stay home Talerico might have a chance.
I would not bet on Latino swing a whole lot. Although not a monolith they are largely one issue voters: abortion. Call them floating garbage (Puerto Rico) and in Florida they all ran to vote R.
Paxton leading the polls in Texas is symptomatic of how criminal fraudsters have gained complete control over the republican party. Paxton belongs in prison, not running for our senate.
I moved away from Texas almost 50 years ago (no regrets) but when I still lived there, a common refrain was "we have the best politicians money can buy." I heard that said a LOT and they were proud of it. It looks to me like not much has changed.
It might not be a factor, but there is a Texas tendency or trait (told to me by a Texan, and which I've checked out) that might affect the outcome. Texans have a history of going all-in for their heroes and their leaders WHEN THEY ARE WINNING. Texans love winners. They also have a history of abandoning them very quickly when they see them as LOSING. Texans HATE losers. Sam Houston all the way to the Dallas Cowboys could nod their heads on that one.
If Trump and MAGA are seen as losing because the US is seen as losing in Iran, the economy is seen as tanking, or the deportation of criminal aliens is seen as a failure, that Texas trait might come to the surface.
This happens in other states, too
I will believe it when I see it. Though I continue to send positive thoughts and to visualize a Blue Wave. We all have to make this happen. And “woe is me” thoughts don’t help. In my universe, what we Think is what we Create.
Trump has touched all of us in negative ways. He and his policies and his group of stunningly incompetent henchmen/women have made everyone’s lives worse in ways both large and small.
So Blue Wave in 2026 to Hold the Fort until 2028 when we finally throw the autocratic criminals out and take back our democracy!
A warning sign is if Trump and Musk 'kiss and make up'. If Trump is desperate enough and his machinations to suppress voting don't work, he'll bring in Musk to work his magic on the 'vote counting machines' again.
Where is the outrage among voters when our government is actively trying to stop eligible Americans from voting?
One vote here for Talarico
I live in Texas and would love to see our felonious AG gone! If you only read his Wikipedia page you will see he got into politics at a young age and has been so successful at jobs that don’t pay much the he is now a multi-millionaire - all from sucking GOP hind tit! Cornyn is just as bad but hasn’t been so over the top that he was impeached. Ditto for Abbott, Paxton . . .
You left out the fact that Talarico represents generational change and is squeaky clean. He ran a near perfect campaign reaching out to voters from all backgrounds throughout the state. He’s peeled off maga voters, people of color and independents with his no hate optimistic agenda. His economic populism focus on top vs bottom instead of right vs left makes sense to Texans. And his moderate Christian stance and insistence on separation of church and state is the perfect anecdote to white Christian nationalism. He checks all the boxes and most people love him as much as maga fears him.
Talarico took a page from Beto's handbook. He ran a similar campaign, traveling the state and focusing on connecting with voters. His squeaky clean image is helping him overcome Beto's perceived shortcomings. Beto's political troubles started from something as mundane as a picture of him in a dress from his younger, wilder days. Oh how the repubs harped on that! And then when he stood on the presidential debate stage and said, "Hell yes, we're going to take your AR-15, your AK-47...," it pretty much ended any hope of getting elected in Texas.
For the record, I supported Beto, voted for him every chance I got, will vote for him again if the opportunity presents itself. He has shown over and over that he will work to help the people of TX, even if he's not holding an elected office.
When I lived in Texas, I never got my arms around the fact that every Texan I met was so nice, and I don't mean superficially. Genuinely nice people who will give the shirts off their backs for others.
Then, a guy like Beto comes around, and those nice people don't vote for him, but they'll flock to a guy like Paxton. Weird stuff.
I lived here my entire life and find your comment spot on. I can't wrap my mind around how the nicest people will vote to take away my rights and make my life so much more difficult, and they smile and hug me while they do it. Just so weird.
I tried not to like him because I’m a Crockett fan big time because I lived in Texarkana area while she was a public defender there and she’s an amazing person and always has been. A true woman of the people.
But he’s what a lot of people want. He’s not reactive in emotional and demonstrative ways which we are thoroughly sick of with the leadership we have now performing for some imagined audience they anre out of touch with. For me, he’s a little bit milk toast as they used to say. He doesn’t have much fire that comes across very well, but perhaps He has a good enough mind that he can learn the job and do good things for the state. Besides, giving it all away to the Titans of AI who have surpassed even big oil in their rape and pillage of our resources.
So I voted for him because I knew Texas would not vote for a fiery black woman who actually knows her job and tells it like it is too. You know… angry black woman syndrome.
I Hope he can gather in all the Crockett supporters and bring them to the polls. There are certainly enough people here who are totally sick of both Cornyn and Paxton.
Now if we could do something about Abbott we’d be in really good shape.
I used those same words after the primary - a perfect storm for Democrats. Let the Cornyn - Paxton battle begin. While Talarico comes out smelling like a rose.
We had two excellent candidates running for the Dem ticket. Kuddos to Jasmine Crockett (a formidable opponent) for immediately announcing her support for Talarico after the primaries, hopefully bringing her supporters into the Talarico camp. I expect to see more of her in the near future.
Great breakdown Jay. Spot on. Love, TX
The work you do is special.
Very encouraging, for sure. Thanks especially for the numbers on some of the Latino votes.
I had some fun with Paxton insanity not too long ago if anyone wants to take the dangerous dive into his personality and background...
https://www.ruminato.com/p/texas-attorney-general-ken-paxtons
Texas went out of its way to lure Californians who were leaving their state because of property taxes and expenses. To the extent the Texas ploy worked, they lured in far more progressive people, people more likely to vote democratic. They have settled in and are now expressing themselves. Texas should be more careful about what they wish for.
The Californians I’m aware of that have moved from California (where I live) to Texas were all hard core MAGA and hated everything California except the higher wages and better pensions (many worked for government entities in California). High property taxes in California are a function of when and where someone bought their home because of the Prop 13 tax structure (the when) and if someone owns where the jurisdiction and developer setup Mello-Roos taxes that keep going up every year (the where). The California property tax rate (1 to 1.25 percent of the purchase price, not an annual upward assessment value) is actually lower than many states, including Texas.
Same can be said for Californians moving to Idaho.
I was one of the techies who moved to Texas from California, but it was for the cheaper housing. I loved CA and still do.
Property taxes were low on the list of reasons, low as in not being on the list at all. I don't remember the differences between the two states, so your description of the differences tracks. But the difference in actual property values at the time were crazy. In the northern suburbs of Austin, I was able to buy a house for a fraction of what the same house would have cost me in CA, so I did.
I would argue that the Californians who moved there around that time were a mix of people, just like everywhere. When Musk moved there, I began to worry about the political demographics of the newer arrivals (libertarian hucksters). I think that played out a bit, but I don't have any empirical evidence to back it up.
I find the Californians in the tech industry who moved to Austin to be a lot more liberal than the Californians who moved to the Hill Country (area between Austin and San Antonio), who generally tend to be MAGA to their core. I've lived in both areas, and I fled the Hill Country recently for that very reason. The Hill Country is so MAGA that the Texas Legislature has used it to gerrymander electoral districts in both San Antonio and Austin to dilute the liberal/progressive voting power of both of these areas. That's how I ended up with Chip Roy as my representative! :(
So true. I feel like I’m back in Arkansas in the Hill Country.
🥹
That's unfortunate. Sorry for your loss!
Unfortunately if the Dems don’t get their act together we might end up with a Republican Gov
If you’re referring to the California governor race, top two primary system, it’s an undesirable possibility
That one worries me too. The CA Dems really need to sit around a table and decide who is going to carry the water for the Dems and encourage the rest to drop out. They need someone who can come in 1st or 2nd in the primary. If there is nothing else obvious about recent elections, it's that fringe candidates cost the main candidates elections. It would be great if that wasn't the case, but the reality is that we're just not there and won't be without substantial election financing reform.
Local media here (CalMatters is best for statewide political and economic news) has been covering the Dems and efforts to convince those only polling 3 percent or less to drop out and endorse one of the top three Dems (currently running third, fourth, fifth behind the two Republicans). The lead is the current Republican Sheriff of Riverside County (elected position). He’s hard core far right wing.
The one that's spreading lies about election fraud and absconding with ballots to pretend he's doing something about it.
Good job . The work you do is special.
Paxton does sound perfect for the MAGAistics.
From your mouth to God’s ear 🙏🏽 please!! I’m over the Repuklicants BS and the Orange Shitstain trying to stay in power for a 3rd term.. BLUE all day long every single day 24/7
I’m highly skeptical. Texans may be very unhappy with current events, but the state is incredibly anti-Dem outside of the big cities, especially the white population (I lived there years ago, and still have relatives there, who I do NOT talk to about politics). The only path I see for Talerico is if GOP turnout, especially among whites, completely collapses. The Latinos will swing for sure, but TX has refined the art of voter suppression, which will limit their impact. Whites there just aren’t going to vote for Dems (except in the cities), but if they stay home Talerico might have a chance.
I would not bet on Latino swing a whole lot. Although not a monolith they are largely one issue voters: abortion. Call them floating garbage (Puerto Rico) and in Florida they all ran to vote R.