Thank you for the polar opposite of Nate Cohn, whose analysis of this election was a contradictory, jumbled mess as he tried to continue to peddle the weakness of Democrats, and Biden in particular.
The detail in this analysis was a hundred times better than the NY Times' so-called poll expert, and I don't mean because of its conclusions. I am talking about the actual details that were behind Suozzi's easy win that you provided in a way, that frankly (and I read a lot), I haven't found elsewhere.
Combine this with dramatic Dem victories in just about every localized election since Roe v. Wade and we have a pattern. But the message in mainstream media is always the same: This local election is unique. Whether it's abortion or immigration, it's unique. These local election results won't translate nationwide unless Biden lops off a few years from his tree rings, according to most "analysts."
It's never, "Republicans have become unelectable sycophants to a demented man with nearly a hundred indictments, a guilty verdict in a civil court of rape/defamation against one of his 20+ accusers, and a really bizarre Valentine's Day love letter to his wife."
I am thrilled that Suozzi won and won decisively. But it was far from "easy". For the past several months, thousands of volunteers from all over the country, including me, poured in on this critical race, donating, phone banking, writing postcards and letters and posting on social media. The strong win in this election is the direct result of all those efforts to alert people to the importance of getting out and voting for Tom Suozzi. It is time to stop looking a polls and at the NYT Times, and put our heads down and get to work! WHEN WE WORK, WE WIN.
Thanks for the hard work. I meant an "easy" victory in terms of dominance, like a sport team gets an "easy" victory over an opponent, but in pro sports, too, there is no such thing as an easy victory. As for not looking at polls, I wish people would stop looking at them. I don't believe them myself. I will continue to call them out for their coverage, though, even if it only results in one person unsubscribing. Again, though, thanks for all you did on this!
Charles, I’m curious about what this bizarre Valentine’s Day love letter to Melania is… Do you have details? Also, this is a great comment and I agree with everything.
I'm not aware of that happening but I try not to be too studious of Trump's activities, and especially his campaign events. Better for my mental health to let Jay and others earn their purple hearts for sliding through this muck.
This is a great analysis that puts things in perspective better than any pollster or mainstream journalist. The nuances of elections cannot be analyzed by speaking to a few hundred or a few thousand people scattered around the country who happened to pick up their phone. It’s obvious that Republicans are in a death spiral, and Democrats running for Congress and the Senate can easily use this dysfunction to their advantage. Also, although it seems like a smaller victory, a Democrat won a special election in the Pennsylvania Statehouse, thereby maintaining a slim Democratic majority there. It’s obvious to anyone who can think critically that Democrats are doing well across the board and have been seeing victories going back to the 2018 midterms. The Republicans and the Supreme Court have come bearing gifts to Democrats; let’s use them appropriately.
LOL! And your reading advice is excellent in my opinion, since I read those same newsletters. I still have a Washington Post subscription, but I hardly ever read it anymore. I abandoned the New York Times last year.
FLOOD CONGRESSMAN MIKE JOHNSON’S PHONES WITH MESSAGES THAT URGE HIM TO GET A SPINE, NOT BE A CHICKEN, COWARD AND TRAITOR, AND BRING THE BILL TO THE HOUSE FLOOR FOR A VOTE.
Mine is just stupid. I have been emailing her, and she won't even acknowledge receipt of my emails nor respect my request for a reply. This is the horror of living in a deep red state, where many people are undereducated and keep voting against their own best interests. With so many people in this state dependent on Social Security, Medicare, Medicaid, black lung benefits, and other "socialist" programs, I don't understand how they can ever vote for a Republican. Many, including some in my immediate family, are so dependent on misinformation sources that they believe it is the Democrats who are trying to to end those programs. Even when I show them facts, they respond that I don't know what is really happening because I don't listen to and watch their YouTube channels and misinformation sources. It is extremely frustrating!
It's not just living in a deep red state -- I live in New York state. My rep, Brandon Williams, is a lying MAGA who can't be bothered to respond to any communication that disagrees with him. Before him, we had Anthony Brindisi, a Democrat who was doing a great job, but voted to impeach Trump, so that was the end of him. NY 22 is deep red crazy. We had Claudia Tenney before Brindisi, my husband and I call her "Trump in pumps."
As for dealing with those who believe that the deep state is controlling things... possibly digging through through the facts with them on a topic might help... or it might be a waste of time. Good luck.
Kelly Ann Conway was on Faux news today saying that if Masi had embraced x45 more, she would have won! Welp! Tom's speech last night was so uplifting and encouraging, we need more Dems giving speeches like his!!
Kelly Anne was parroting Trump who announces (in caps, of course) that Masi was foolish because she didn't endorse HIM, the greatest orange liar of all time (okay, he didn't say that, but the narcissisism was stamped in gold all over his (un) truth (anti) social message.) What a bucket of bilge.
This is my home district and I proudly supported Suozzi.
Jay — your key point is right here:
"He talked tough on immigration and hammered on the fact that Republicans walked away from a bipartisan border solution. Expect to see other Democrats, particularly in swing districts, adopt this playbook."
Im a proud democrat and consider myself progressive, but also a pragmatist. Far too often Democrats/The left have a horse / cart situation when it comes to politics. You have to win the election before you get to sit in the chair and legislate. Without step 1 there is no step 2. We on the left have a habit of not grasping that. Combined with our unmatched expertise in political suicide (defund the police, cry baby whining with third-party and stay at home voters who don't get everything they want) we have a recipe for disaster.
Suozzi is proof that first of all, the candidate quality matters. They tried to tag him as a far left type of guy, when everyone here has known he was centrist. Second, winning is the only thing that matters if you want to govern. Third, when your enemy opens the door for you to come in and slaughter then, you take the opportunity and have to have the responsibility to engineer a blood bath (politically speaking).
Orange Adolf opened the door, congressional republicans held it open for Suozzi to do exactly as Jay points out. He killed on the one last issue that can hurt Democrats and Biden: Immigration.
I understand. This is a charged issued on many fronts. For it to work to our advantage and get elected and govern, we have to take a balanced position. Democrats can own the boarder issue now, and take it right out from under republicans and effectively win the House, Senate and White House, and potentially in the form of a blue wave when combined with our popular positions on choice and guns.
It is up to us. We have to push our electeds (even the progressive ones) to understand that if they want to be in the majority and govern, they need to put up a common sense, humane approach to immigration. Caps on entry per day/week/month, more judges and legal resources to expedite the process are a great start along with a humane process. I would absolutely tighten asylum regulations as well. I would take that foundation, put in protections for Dreamers and pathways to citizenship for migrants / immigrants who meet the qualifications.
Another big addition no one seems to be calling out and discussing: The fact that for all the screaming and complaining about the border and migrants, what about the employers paying those immigrants and migrants under the table at shit wages and no protections? Shouldn't they be identified as part of the problem? The businesses who are hiring other illegally are screwing us all too — as they fail to pay into the system and the rest of us have to cover the short fall. Put it in the form of a question: If the employers were not employing migrants/illegals, would they be coming here with such pace and determination?
This is a nuanced problem and we need serious people for the job. "We were ready to get it done right now, and after they said yes to everything, their Orange Hitlarian Slob killed it to help himself while he hurt the country. And republicans went along with it." That should be the message from Democrats.
Proud to have been part of the fundraising effort. I may not live in the state of New York, but even here, in North Carolina, it's really important to drag the House out of the MAGA Republican quagmire. And this is another step toward that goal.
The Times' Nate Cohn did his usual "no big deal" take on the results, banging on about "Dem turnout", and "not an indication of future performance" type of reporting, ANYTHING to detract from the rather poor pre-election polling numbers.
This is the sort of "analysis" to expect leading up to the general election in November, where the Democratic vote is highly qualified, but no probs with GOP "enthusiasm"...grrrr!
I canceled the Times this week. The headlines were ignorant at best and the recipes couldn’t make up for it. Jay’s analysis last night helped me understand and get some sleep.
I keep NYT because, as a sports freak, I subscribe to The Athletic - which they bought (to my great chagrin) - and it gets me the Times really cheap. It remains marginally useful at the price I'm paying.
KL: I subscribe for free to several very good Substacks. I can't afford to pay for every single one, but subscribing to national news services is not cheap, either. BTW, were you deliberately being snarky?
Thank you, as always, Jay, for your clarity in election post-mortems.
“As we look ahead to November, keep in mind that Democrats are winning and will continue to win, and that the GOP is flailing and will continue to flail. No amount of polling can change that; it can only add unnecessary anxiety.”
I cannot take another presidential election year anxiety.
Thank you for always being the source of reason and real numbers.
As long as the GOP sticks with Trump as their leader (who in no uncertain terms is a loser) they severely limit their chances of real power (or actual governing). What is really sad is how all of the ignorant, extremist, loudmouth but do nothing congressmen got voted in by their fiery but empty rhetoric. Voters ultimately have to do better.
The GQP has zero interest in governing. They only want to tear our system down by “starving the beast.”
Anyone else who doesn’t do their job would’ve been fired by now. Maybe there’s still enough voters who understand that we actually need congress people to do their jobs. It’s enraging that our tax dollars are being wasted on insurrectionists and obstruction.
Glad you’re weighing in on this Jay. And thank you for the link to The Daily. I’d forgotten how much I enjoy listening to these analyses as I knit. I’m glad the result was a wider victory than predicted.
That Daily podcast made it seem like it was going to be a squeaker. I kept waiting for them to mention how the early voting looked exceedingly good for Suozzi, but that would take the tension out of the piece I guess!
And maybe there’s some law about revealing vote counts beforehand? Perhaps the FCC might have a concern about influencing an election? Some States don’t count the absentee ballots until the in-person day, but I don’t know if that applies in New York. I was a Moderator in Connecticut in the pre-internet age so I’m sure the rules have had to be adjusted. But I’d like to believe that every vote counts.
Thank you for the polar opposite of Nate Cohn, whose analysis of this election was a contradictory, jumbled mess as he tried to continue to peddle the weakness of Democrats, and Biden in particular.
The detail in this analysis was a hundred times better than the NY Times' so-called poll expert, and I don't mean because of its conclusions. I am talking about the actual details that were behind Suozzi's easy win that you provided in a way, that frankly (and I read a lot), I haven't found elsewhere.
Combine this with dramatic Dem victories in just about every localized election since Roe v. Wade and we have a pattern. But the message in mainstream media is always the same: This local election is unique. Whether it's abortion or immigration, it's unique. These local election results won't translate nationwide unless Biden lops off a few years from his tree rings, according to most "analysts."
It's never, "Republicans have become unelectable sycophants to a demented man with nearly a hundred indictments, a guilty verdict in a civil court of rape/defamation against one of his 20+ accusers, and a really bizarre Valentine's Day love letter to his wife."
I am thrilled that Suozzi won and won decisively. But it was far from "easy". For the past several months, thousands of volunteers from all over the country, including me, poured in on this critical race, donating, phone banking, writing postcards and letters and posting on social media. The strong win in this election is the direct result of all those efforts to alert people to the importance of getting out and voting for Tom Suozzi. It is time to stop looking a polls and at the NYT Times, and put our heads down and get to work! WHEN WE WORK, WE WIN.
Exactly! It was a grass roots, bipartisan effort that gave Ohioans their right to abortion.
Thanks for the hard work. I meant an "easy" victory in terms of dominance, like a sport team gets an "easy" victory over an opponent, but in pro sports, too, there is no such thing as an easy victory. As for not looking at polls, I wish people would stop looking at them. I don't believe them myself. I will continue to call them out for their coverage, though, even if it only results in one person unsubscribing. Again, though, thanks for all you did on this!
Kathleen--thank you for all of your efforts!
Charles, I’m curious about what this bizarre Valentine’s Day love letter to Melania is… Do you have details? Also, this is a great comment and I agree with everything.
https://www.newsweek.com/donald-trump-sends-melania-valentines-day-message-through-campaign-email-1869942
I've seen variations on the actual text (satire can be difficult to distinguish from reality these days).
Eeewwwww! That's awfully close to pimping her out.
Right?
Why wouldn't he? He married an illegal immigrant sex worker.
Thanks, we are living in strange, twilight zone type times
Worse than the movies Idiocracy and Invasion of the Body Snatchers combined.
Truly!
Ugh!
But…..have we SEEN her by his side?
I'm not aware of that happening but I try not to be too studious of Trump's activities, and especially his campaign events. Better for my mental health to let Jay and others earn their purple hearts for sliding through this muck.
Um... wow. That is... different...
Glad I read yours before I posted mine. It said everything I was thinking but much better than I would have.
I'm sure yours would have been great, 99% of the comments here are. :-)
This is a great analysis that puts things in perspective better than any pollster or mainstream journalist. The nuances of elections cannot be analyzed by speaking to a few hundred or a few thousand people scattered around the country who happened to pick up their phone. It’s obvious that Republicans are in a death spiral, and Democrats running for Congress and the Senate can easily use this dysfunction to their advantage. Also, although it seems like a smaller victory, a Democrat won a special election in the Pennsylvania Statehouse, thereby maintaining a slim Democratic majority there. It’s obvious to anyone who can think critically that Democrats are doing well across the board and have been seeing victories going back to the 2018 midterms. The Republicans and the Supreme Court have come bearing gifts to Democrats; let’s use them appropriately.
I forgot about that state house race in Pennsylvania. Thanks for that update.
There is no better quartet to recognize and use the gifts for Dems borne by Republicans than
Simon Rosenberg
Jay Kuo
Jess Craven
Robert Hubbell!
As for polls, a bit of humor:
"I'm tired of the weather being told by what actually happens outdoors. I'm in the market for some used, broken barometers."
LOL! And your reading advice is excellent in my opinion, since I read those same newsletters. I still have a Washington Post subscription, but I hardly ever read it anymore. I abandoned the New York Times last year.
SUGGESTION:
FLOOD CONGRESSMAN MIKE JOHNSON’S PHONES WITH MESSAGES THAT URGE HIM TO GET A SPINE, NOT BE A CHICKEN, COWARD AND TRAITOR, AND BRING THE BILL TO THE HOUSE FLOOR FOR A VOTE.
Washington, DC
Phone: 202-225-2777
Bossier City
Phone: 318-840-0309
Northwestern State University - Ft. Johnson
Phone: 337-423-4232
Northwestern State University
Phone: 318-951-4316
I've been posting on his FB page it's time for him to be vacated, with a link to house rep phone numbers. I recommend people contact their reps.
Mine is just stupid. I have been emailing her, and she won't even acknowledge receipt of my emails nor respect my request for a reply. This is the horror of living in a deep red state, where many people are undereducated and keep voting against their own best interests. With so many people in this state dependent on Social Security, Medicare, Medicaid, black lung benefits, and other "socialist" programs, I don't understand how they can ever vote for a Republican. Many, including some in my immediate family, are so dependent on misinformation sources that they believe it is the Democrats who are trying to to end those programs. Even when I show them facts, they respond that I don't know what is really happening because I don't listen to and watch their YouTube channels and misinformation sources. It is extremely frustrating!
It's not just living in a deep red state -- I live in New York state. My rep, Brandon Williams, is a lying MAGA who can't be bothered to respond to any communication that disagrees with him. Before him, we had Anthony Brindisi, a Democrat who was doing a great job, but voted to impeach Trump, so that was the end of him. NY 22 is deep red crazy. We had Claudia Tenney before Brindisi, my husband and I call her "Trump in pumps."
Even if they don't reply, they do keep stats.
As for dealing with those who believe that the deep state is controlling things... possibly digging through through the facts with them on a topic might help... or it might be a waste of time. Good luck.
😰
Done -- 3 times already
Joel thank you for these numbers! 👍🏻
Done.
Kelly Ann Conway was on Faux news today saying that if Masi had embraced x45 more, she would have won! Welp! Tom's speech last night was so uplifting and encouraging, we need more Dems giving speeches like his!!
FFS! Is Kelly Ann sleeping with Donny Diaper Load? She’s unbelievable. 🤦♀️
She’s just trying to stay sort of relevant. As if any thinking person needs to her take on things.
She definitely drank the kool aid
She wishes, I am certain. Pretty sure she's "Not my type."
Let the R's continue to believe nutso stuff, like embracing Trump MORE will help them win. No, Kellyanne, that will help DEMOCRATS win ;-)
Kelly Anne was parroting Trump who announces (in caps, of course) that Masi was foolish because she didn't endorse HIM, the greatest orange liar of all time (okay, he didn't say that, but the narcissisism was stamped in gold all over his (un) truth (anti) social message.) What a bucket of bilge.
So far, so good. I like the trend Dems are setting. Let’s hope republicans keep up their “good” work as the “do nothing party”.
Suozzi win: the best antidepressant yet! 💙
From the sole perspective of marketing, this will be the easiest campaign season ever. Republicans are doing all our hype for us.
Chip Roy is a gold mine!
And of course perennial favourite, unindicted sex pest Matt Gaetz.
Karma be takin' her sweet time on him, but I'm sure it's gonna get him eventually.
This is my home district and I proudly supported Suozzi.
Jay — your key point is right here:
"He talked tough on immigration and hammered on the fact that Republicans walked away from a bipartisan border solution. Expect to see other Democrats, particularly in swing districts, adopt this playbook."
Im a proud democrat and consider myself progressive, but also a pragmatist. Far too often Democrats/The left have a horse / cart situation when it comes to politics. You have to win the election before you get to sit in the chair and legislate. Without step 1 there is no step 2. We on the left have a habit of not grasping that. Combined with our unmatched expertise in political suicide (defund the police, cry baby whining with third-party and stay at home voters who don't get everything they want) we have a recipe for disaster.
Suozzi is proof that first of all, the candidate quality matters. They tried to tag him as a far left type of guy, when everyone here has known he was centrist. Second, winning is the only thing that matters if you want to govern. Third, when your enemy opens the door for you to come in and slaughter then, you take the opportunity and have to have the responsibility to engineer a blood bath (politically speaking).
Orange Adolf opened the door, congressional republicans held it open for Suozzi to do exactly as Jay points out. He killed on the one last issue that can hurt Democrats and Biden: Immigration.
I understand. This is a charged issued on many fronts. For it to work to our advantage and get elected and govern, we have to take a balanced position. Democrats can own the boarder issue now, and take it right out from under republicans and effectively win the House, Senate and White House, and potentially in the form of a blue wave when combined with our popular positions on choice and guns.
It is up to us. We have to push our electeds (even the progressive ones) to understand that if they want to be in the majority and govern, they need to put up a common sense, humane approach to immigration. Caps on entry per day/week/month, more judges and legal resources to expedite the process are a great start along with a humane process. I would absolutely tighten asylum regulations as well. I would take that foundation, put in protections for Dreamers and pathways to citizenship for migrants / immigrants who meet the qualifications.
Another big addition no one seems to be calling out and discussing: The fact that for all the screaming and complaining about the border and migrants, what about the employers paying those immigrants and migrants under the table at shit wages and no protections? Shouldn't they be identified as part of the problem? The businesses who are hiring other illegally are screwing us all too — as they fail to pay into the system and the rest of us have to cover the short fall. Put it in the form of a question: If the employers were not employing migrants/illegals, would they be coming here with such pace and determination?
This is a nuanced problem and we need serious people for the job. "We were ready to get it done right now, and after they said yes to everything, their Orange Hitlarian Slob killed it to help himself while he hurt the country. And republicans went along with it." That should be the message from Democrats.
"Orange Adolf" 😈
Proud to have been part of the fundraising effort. I may not live in the state of New York, but even here, in North Carolina, it's really important to drag the House out of the MAGA Republican quagmire. And this is another step toward that goal.
The Times' Nate Cohn did his usual "no big deal" take on the results, banging on about "Dem turnout", and "not an indication of future performance" type of reporting, ANYTHING to detract from the rather poor pre-election polling numbers.
This is the sort of "analysis" to expect leading up to the general election in November, where the Democratic vote is highly qualified, but no probs with GOP "enthusiasm"...grrrr!
He can rot.
Thanks...that is my own feeling, too.
Thanks for the great analysis! I can’t understand why people still pay attention to polls especially this far out from the election.
I’m thinking of canceling my subscriptions to the NYT and WaPost. However, a lot of my favorite political writers still link to their articles.
It’s not universally bad, and there is great fact reporting. It’s the analysis and the headlines that drive me batty.
I canceled the Times this week. The headlines were ignorant at best and the recipes couldn’t make up for it. Jay’s analysis last night helped me understand and get some sleep.
I too cancelled the NYTimes after their weak and pandering headlines, and I let them know about it.
I keep NYT because, as a sports freak, I subscribe to The Athletic - which they bought (to my great chagrin) - and it gets me the Times really cheap. It remains marginally useful at the price I'm paying.
@KL, many of your favorite writers are available on Substack and other venues. Please stop funding the sources of misinformation and bias.
Yeah, we’ll just pay every author $5/mo.
That adds up quick.
So only those with money get “news”?!
KL: I subscribe for free to several very good Substacks. I can't afford to pay for every single one, but subscribing to national news services is not cheap, either. BTW, were you deliberately being snarky?
I cancelled NYT a while ago; hanging on to WaPo for now
I did the same, then realized WaPo is almost as bad. So I dumped WaPo and honestly haven't missed either one.
TBH the main attraction of WaPo for me are the advice columns 😂🤷♀️🤦♀️
Thank you, as always, Jay, for your clarity in election post-mortems.
“As we look ahead to November, keep in mind that Democrats are winning and will continue to win, and that the GOP is flailing and will continue to flail. No amount of polling can change that; it can only add unnecessary anxiety.”
I cannot take another presidential election year anxiety.
Thank you for always being the source of reason and real numbers.
Great news!
As long as the GOP sticks with Trump as their leader (who in no uncertain terms is a loser) they severely limit their chances of real power (or actual governing). What is really sad is how all of the ignorant, extremist, loudmouth but do nothing congressmen got voted in by their fiery but empty rhetoric. Voters ultimately have to do better.
The GQP has zero interest in governing. They only want to tear our system down by “starving the beast.”
Anyone else who doesn’t do their job would’ve been fired by now. Maybe there’s still enough voters who understand that we actually need congress people to do their jobs. It’s enraging that our tax dollars are being wasted on insurrectionists and obstruction.
Great news!! Thank you for encouraging your community to join so many others in helping getting the message and the voters out.
Glad you’re weighing in on this Jay. And thank you for the link to The Daily. I’d forgotten how much I enjoy listening to these analyses as I knit. I’m glad the result was a wider victory than predicted.
That Daily podcast made it seem like it was going to be a squeaker. I kept waiting for them to mention how the early voting looked exceedingly good for Suozzi, but that would take the tension out of the piece I guess!
And maybe there’s some law about revealing vote counts beforehand? Perhaps the FCC might have a concern about influencing an election? Some States don’t count the absentee ballots until the in-person day, but I don’t know if that applies in New York. I was a Moderator in Connecticut in the pre-internet age so I’m sure the rules have had to be adjusted. But I’d like to believe that every vote counts.