190 Comments

To me, it seems as if US polling is currently being used as a tool to demoralize the left. I disregard polls now, even if they indicate trends I like. Submitting to their manufactured pessimism is harmful.

Expand full comment

I was informed about a progressive polling company on one of the Substacks I subscribe to (Joyce or HCR most likely). It’s called Navigator Research. It’s the only poll I read now.

Check them out:

https://navigatorresearch.org

Expand full comment

Thanks for this link. Just signed up for it to hit my inbox. From just a cursory read, there are some great bullet points there.

Expand full comment

Thanks for this! Feels great to have access to more realistic data.

Expand full comment

Subscribed, thanks!

Expand full comment

Yes. Thank you. I subscribed because of your link..

Expand full comment

2 bloggers I also subscribe to and Robert Hubble. Thank you for the tip

Expand full comment

Thank you! Just subscribed.

Expand full comment

Thanks for the link!

I’ve been looking for one that is trustworthy. It seems 97.5% of them are corrupted. Polls shmolls.

Expand full comment

Motivate the left/center. Not demoralize.

Vote 💙 FULL BALLOT

Expand full comment

A brief note on Simon Rosenberg, aka"Mr Hopium"...after an extended period of unqualified support for the candidacy of Joe Biden, he now qualifies that by calling for the Biden camp to have Joe submit to rigorous neurological testing, and to make these results public. Rosenberg stated today that the WH is making a huge mistake by simply citing a February medical report that claimed to give Biden a clean sheet, ignoring palpable evidence to the contrary. Rosenberg noted that he has been "inundated by messages from medical professionals" stating their concerns about Biden's cognitive abilities, and that voters have a perfect right to know that Joe Biden has the full mental capacity to put in another four years of rigorous presidential duties.

Frankly, merely sending him and his teleprompter out on rallies, or a few more one-on-one interviews won't cut it, as his approvals continue to drop, and a resounding 70% + of voters continue to maintain that "he's too old" to serve another term.

The only good news here is that several incumbent Dem senators in re-election bids are running well ahead of Biden in polling, and opportunities for recapturing the House remain solid...but the presidency remains the joker in the deck, especially as "The Joker" himself seems to maintain a statistically significant if not growing lead over Biden.

Let's not blind ourselves completely to "the polls", and ignore what voters have been saying for months: "He's too old". Time for a change at the top of the ticket, for the good of the country already.

Expand full comment

If people were worried about his age, they could/should have spoken up a year or so ago when there was time to gracefully select another candidate. His age can't be any sort of shocker. Waiting to object to it now seems more than a bit suspect to me.

Expand full comment

Many of us did speak up and were ignored. However, this is the horse we were given so let’s ride knowing we have a very capable backup in our VP.

Expand full comment
Jul 8·edited Jul 8

It's not the age per se. We have long said that as long as he does a good job, who cares? And it's not like Trump is much younger. Instead, it's that Biden already had multiple weaknesses (most of which only surfaced recently), and the debate performance (whether age-related or not) was just the straw that broke the camel's back.

Besides, a year ago, there was no option for a Biden alternative. And the Biden from a year ago is not Biden today.

Expand full comment

There were several options for a replacement - ethical, well vetted options. The time has passed while people twiddled their thumbs. Also, Biden's work has been excellent, nearly unparalleled. He and his advisors have done wonders with the trash heap trump left them. That is all.

Expand full comment

You mean, Dean Philipps?

I'll give you that Biden did a good job, much better than I expected him to do. But that's the 2020-2023 Biden. We have been rightfully complaining that the 2024 Trump is showing serious signs of aging that the 2020 Trump didn't, but it didn't become clear to the public until the debate that Biden also declined.

Expand full comment

Polls are VERY suspect, and have been [mostly] highly inaccurate. As for a neurological test for Biden, it sounds like a feasible idea-but I’m guessing as soon as he passes one, there will be non-stop clamoring for a second - and a third and so on. The attacks will not stop.

Expand full comment

This is my problem precisely - there would be no end to it. Furthermore , similar tests should be conducted on DJT- AND a thorough psychiatric evaluation , bc he is not stable.

Expand full comment

Umm, polls are "suspect" when they have Biden losing to tRump. but are hailed as "good news" when these polls show Dems winning in Senate and House races.

Come on!

Expand full comment

F that.

TFG is certifiable and losing mental ground daily.

HE is the one they should be demanding testing from.

Don’t fall for this BS and don’t play into the hands of the GQP.

Expand full comment

Spot on… vote for The Ticket, vote against fascism and NatCs

Expand full comment

“Time for a change at the top of the ticket”? What’s the plan? James Wright, spot on: https://www.stonekettle.com/2024/07/raggedy-man.html

Expand full comment

Spot on!

Expand full comment

That's why it's so infuriating that Biden is dragging out the inevitable - time is ticking away, and we can't solidify a post-Biden plan until he faces the inevitable.

If you are saying that there is no plan B, you are complaining that the Democrats have failed to build a deep bench of suitable candidates. Which is largely a valid complaint, although there are a few options.

It appears that the plan is coalescing around Kamala Harris. Granted, not my first choice, but given the situation and the lack of time, probably the best option. As a bonus, it would give us our first female President, our first Asian-American President, and our second black President.

Expand full comment

The only post-Biden plan is that we lose. Period.

Stop this infantile nonsense and go read that article Susan linked to.

Expand full comment

Biden is a ticket to a guaranteed loss. It is true that somebody else may still lose, but at least we have a reasonable chance.

Expand full comment

Au contraire! Biden "leaving" the race is a ticket to a guaranteed loss. There is NO way to come up with a new candidate who will win at this point. He is the very best bet.

Expand full comment

Jeez. Did you even read the piece by Jim Wright???

Expand full comment

I recognize that we all want Trump defeated. However, we cannot become mirror images of the MAGAs by simply closing our eyes and avoiding what is the truth. Simply, we do not know the truth about Biden’s health.

Expand full comment

I don't care. There is no reality in which Trump being President would be better for this country. Biden will ways be surrounded by better quality people that can be trusted. All talk of replacing Biden NOW is too late. We all had these thoughts years ago and yet we're here, that's on us. So stop blaming Biden because things didn't go how you think they should have. My preference would have been a Biden not running again and having had him fully support whoever was nominated. Didn't happen that way, but the ultimate goal is still the same, defeat MAGA or lose our country. Any effort that isn't for that goal is a waste. Get behind Biden now or we will all suffer.

Expand full comment

^^^This is what I came to say. Vote blue, no matter who, and it’s just that simple. Anyone who’s complaining about Biden needs to be provided links to Project 2025 and be reminded of the age of at least one third of the Supreme Court. And also reminded that Bidens administration has been kicking ass without recognition for four years. Do they want things to continue as they have for four years, and continue to get better, or not? That’s it. That’s the bedrock. Anything else is muddying the water over details.

Expand full comment

I’m not sure who you may be arguing with but it certainly is not me because I agree with you. ♐️♐️♊️😀

Expand full comment

I don’t view it as ignoring - or even casting aside . It’s 2 people on The Ticket. One isn’t 81. I’m voting for The Ticket with eyes wide open , acknowledging that there is no perfect Ticket.

Expand full comment

Then please share your choice for a viable candidate who has the experience and can beat Trump. Biden can get medical assistance. There are NO serious options at this late stage. Again Democrats are grandmasters at being their own worst enemies.

Expand full comment

Agreed. The insistence that it was one bad day is reading as dishonesty, and Biden’s defiance as more evidence of his age and decline. We all saw what we saw, and too many voters have seen it before with parents and loved ones. They are right to be concerned, because it doesn’t get better.

At the very least the WH needs to submit the President to comprehensive testing and be completely candid with the results. But the Joe Biden I thought I was voting for in 2020 wouldnt let it get this bad. He would out love of country step aside and new leadership engage the voters we need to prevail.

Expand full comment

I tend to disagree. First I will say there were a lot of questions about trump at the debate. People were asking how he could have changed from his issues of not being able to finish sentences, mispronouncing words and confusing people like Nikki Haley and Nancy Pelosi and going balistic if his teleprompter did not function correctly at his rallies to his performance at the debate. I saw clips of all of those and they were not photoshopped. I have watched President Biden at his rallies and he has always been cognitive and energetic at his rallies. He gave a great speech on D Day in France but when he went to the G7 in Spain all the photoshopping by the right started. They removed a chair in one clip and claimed he was pooping on the ground. Another they cut a clip short claiming he had wandered off when if you saw the entire thing he was talking to the paratroopers that had just landed. After President Biden left the debate, which by the way he did improve his performance in the latter half, he went to a rally afterwards and was on fire. He stated he had not felt well for a few days prior to the debate and was checked by the WH physician and even had a covid test. Everything came back negative. I was reading a news letter from Robert Rei this morning and this was part of it: In a June 21 memo, the Heritage Foundation astutely predicted that Democrats might wish to force out Biden “if he freezes at [the] debate.” Noting that “the mechanisms for replacing him on ballots vary by state,” the memo says: “There is the potential for pre-election litigation in some states that would make the process difficult and perhaps unsuccessful.” So they were projecting an issue at least 6 days before the debate. Why would they make that statement?

Expand full comment

If we do not support Biden we must face the existential threat to our existence https://www.msnbc.com/opinion/msnbc-opinion/mark-robinson-north-carolina-killing-trump-rcna160433. He suggests it may be the right thing to kill us. .

Expand full comment

Very suspicious on the Heritage Foundation. Why isn't that all over the news? 🙄

Expand full comment

Nope- there’s no end to that game. Just like there will be no end to the replacement game. Vote for The Ticket and against Fascism and NatCs in the US. Why not request cog tests for DjT? And a full psych eval? Bc we already know the results of those(?)

Expand full comment

Agreed. Sometimes aging happens very rapidly, and that's true for both candidates.

Expand full comment
Jul 8·edited Jul 8

Usually, decline happens slowly, not rapidly, over a period of years. Although younger than Biden, Trump has appeared to be suffering cognitive decline for several years. Since he has been on the path of decline for some time, his prospects are not good through 2028. But Republicans do not care--they only want him to get them over the finish line in 2024 and whoever replaces him will help enact Project 2025.

Expand full comment

So who runs for President instead???? We don't have a replacement in the wings.

Expand full comment

Kamala Harris is out there campaigning like a champion, vigorously supporting the Dem agenda, rubbishing tRump, and IMHO auditioning for a starring rôle as the 2024 Dem standard-bearer.

Expand full comment
Jul 8Liked by Jay Kuo

I could watch that clip of the French celebrating all day ... I would be like the guy in front, crying. It's just so damn important to keep America a democracy.

Expand full comment

Me, too. I cried with him💙

Expand full comment

Here's hoping we can all be sobbing joyously in about 4 months, eh?

Expand full comment

Reminds me of the rally in Paris in 2012 on the night that Socialist Francois Hollande was elected Prime Minister. I was having dinner in a little cafe when the staff started smiling and whispering to each other. They confirmed the reason. So some of us quickly paid and left for the rally.

Expand full comment

Wow. I envy your experience! It sounds like a wonderful time ...

Expand full comment

I was in France when Francois Mitterrand was elected. My French friends and I drank champagne to celebrate.

Expand full comment

Wasn't it lovely? And yeah, that dude is.... all of us. It's nice to know somewhere out there people actually DO care.

Expand full comment

Thank you, Meredith. I cried, too.

Expand full comment

I think we can really empathize with the relief after what's been for them and for us in similar circumstances -- years of stress, chaos, and terror.

Expand full comment
Jul 8Liked by Jay Kuo

Just a heads up. We need to ready for new skewed pols here. The MSM pushes an anti-Biden narrative and then amplifies poor polling that they help drive. Steel yourselves. I don't know about you but they're not jerking me around anymore. Let's be like France!

Expand full comment

This was just so eye opening - that the NYT had it written as a fait accompli . Would love to see expressions in the newsroom after the Brit and French results - like a fallen soufflé

Expand full comment
Jul 8Liked by Jay Kuo

Thank you for this, Jay. I've been saying for the last two weeks that this whole MSM attempt to get Biden to "withdraw" in favor of some "more winning" candidate is a giant rat-f*ck. The NYTimes ran “Why Power Eludes the French Left,” which is pretty much what they're saying about Democrats and Biden. But the line to live by, and that I will keep passing on is,

"Polls aren't votes, and the voters defied them." AMEN.

Expand full comment

Never, ever give up the incumbent position

Expand full comment

I'm not going to freak out about the polls because I've followed them before and the results are not what the polling predicted, case in point the 2016 election.

Let the right think they will win because "the polls say so".

I'm so tired of these Democrats who are beating up on Joe Biden.

Expand full comment

I agree. They are making a lot of predictions and insinuations and the MSM is in cahoots. It's almost as if they want someone to put the blame on if Trump wins. What are they doing to make sure he doesn't? Meanwhile, 81 year old Biden is working his butt off. Are any of them working that hard??? If Trump wins, it's because there wasn't enough focus on how evil he and his gang of criminals and powermongers are.

Expand full comment

They make the news, they don’t report it any more

Expand full comment

Sad and true. I've been poking around on Substack more, and it's interesting. There is some sketchy stuff, you have to be careful about what you're seeing. I could see it being a real rabbit hole for the right folks, but OTOH, there are some earnet, honest writers as well who cover things that you don't see on MSM.

Expand full comment

Perhaps you’ve already seen this VERY RECENT headline?......

“Surprise win for French leftwing alliance keeps far right from power”

That headline proves my point……..about “polls”…….

It is absolutely ridiculous and absurd to place any credence on polls. When you compare the number of people who participated in a poll (for most polls, less than 2,500 people) to the number of registered voters in the United States of America (over 160 million people) the results of a poll, any poll, are total bullshit. Bullshit that no one should be concerned about. Add to that the fact that Democrats were asked not to participate in any polls. Because of that, poll results that show Liar, Fraud, Con, Scumbag, Racist, Sex-Abuser, Traitor, America’s Disgrace, Piece of Shit, Wannabe-Dictator Trump leading President Joseph R. Biden, Jr are nothing but fascist propaganda.

President Biden is, for a second time, going to crush and flush scumbag Trump in the upcoming November election. CRUSH and FLUSH piece-of-shit Trump! Scumbag Trump has zero chance of ever being President again.

MAGAcultists who think that “undecided voters” are going to vote for Scumbag Trump because President Biden stuttered and fumbled through one debate are total fucking idiots. Given a choice between voting for an older person (President Biden) and person who is a fraud, a con, a convicted felon, a traitor, a fascist, a racist, Putin’s puppet and scumbag piece of shit (Fraud Trump), who lies every time he opens his disgusting fucking mouth, “undecided voters” will vote for President Biden.

REGISTER TO VOTE!

VOTE ONLY FOR DEMOCRATS!

Expand full comment

“Democrats were asked not to participate in any polls.”

I don’t know anything about this. Is this true?

Expand full comment

Not sure about the truth of that but I can say from my own experience, my text inbox has been flooded with “polls” and asks for $$$ that get immediately junked. I don’t have time for their foolishness and I’m supporting certain candidates on my own.

Expand full comment

Me too. Haven’t participated in a poll in many years because they alway ask for money at the end. Seems wrong.

Expand full comment

This is a direct result of the vast majority of people against fascism coming out to VOTE against it! We can do that here, too.

Expand full comment

I hope so. But the French may as a country be much more attuned to politics than are many in this country. I hope I’m wrong.

Expand full comment

I can understand your thoughts. Having been in the thick of WWII, it is "recent history" for them. We've always been "removed" from these wars.

Expand full comment

Thanks for the great piece - a lesson for all voters reminding them of their value . And a lesson to politicians that polls don’t vote and papers do not decide elections. In november, we are voting to save democracy; this is not an election about age, do not be fooled by media or those that believe the media has the pulse of the american voter- looking at you, all you political pundits!

Expand full comment
Jul 8Liked by Jay Kuo

Thanks Jay, I needed to hear this today - especially with all the BS about how Biden should drop out.

Expand full comment

Vive la France! Next do USA!

Expand full comment
Jul 8Liked by Jay Kuo

Thank you for posting the video clip of the crowd in Paris as they heard the results -- I was a little shocked to find myself weeping right along with them... how I wish this for the US. Instead, we're stuck with Comer & the other cretins in the House, who are now wanting to investigate Biden's doctor... just hoping the polls in the US that are saying our own far right is ahead are just as worthless...

Expand full comment

Of course we'd cry, too, when we watch the French who were told (and probably mostly believed) that they were doomed -- find out that they actually prevailed. These past approx. 8-9 years since the Trump ascendancy have been such a nightmare for most of us in the U.S., really, and it's just not let up. I think we're all due our moments of emotionality...

Expand full comment

Thank you for the clip:) I cried tears of happiness for the French people❣️

Expand full comment

Wait till Taylor unleashes her voting age Swifties to the polls for Biden!

Expand full comment
author

Look what you made her do!

Expand full comment

Very encouraging development! So much respect for Mbappe going out on a limb and expressing himself! Where are the patriot voices with platforms here?

Expand full comment

Washing the sheets they’ve wet?

Expand full comment
Jul 8Liked by Jay Kuo

Oui. Oui. Vive La France!

Expand full comment

Personally, I'm not worried about the polls that show Trump/MAGA ahead. The more of those polls that are published, the more likely it is that anti-MAGAs will actually show up and vote. Whenever voters think their party has a guaranteed win, the less likely they'll show up to vote, assuming their vote isn't needed. Let's not get complacent or allow the vast majority of voters who don't closely follow politics get complacent, either.

Expand full comment

Let’s not forget the pro choice ballot initiatives that have been added in states where it will be crucial for women and those who care about them to get out and vote. Let’s hear it for Arkansas who has more than the requisite signatures to get their initiative on the ballot 👏🏻👏🏻👏🏻.

Expand full comment

Agreed. Many people didn't show up to vote for Hillary because they didn't like her, but believed she would win anyway.

Expand full comment

And many felt comfortable voting 3rd party as a protest vote for the same reason.

Expand full comment

Jill freaking Stein is running again! I hate her so much. And Cornel, come on, dude.

Expand full comment

These two take their own messages so seriously that they lose sight of the greater good. Ralph Nader still rationalizes his destructive 3rd party candidacy. I believe that one can take themselves so seriously that they cannot be taken seriously by others.

Expand full comment

Why? Neither are taking any votes from the Democrats; they have their own voter base, small as it may be. Those are people who, for their own reasons, never voted D in the first place (nor did they vote R). And contrary to myth, Jill Stein didn't get substantially more votes in 2016 than in other elections.

Expand full comment

Same with Gore, ppl assumed he’d win and cast votes for nadar

Expand full comment

Good point.

Expand full comment