Biden v. Trump, the 2024 Version

How do things look today in a rematch of these candidates?

Image courtesy of Rolling Stone. Saul Loeb (AFP/Getty); Justin Sullivan (Getty)

With Biden’s official announcement this week that he’s running for re-election, we are nearing the point where a rematch between Biden and Trump for the presidency in 2024 is nearly inevitable, assuming health issues don’t prevent either from standing for election.

But what does that rematch look like, at least through a 2023 lens? Today, let’s look at their competing visions for America, some broad considerations that will shape public opinion, the current polling, and some hard electoral math to understand the battle that likely lies ahead for us over the next year and a half. Spoiler: It’s currently good news for Biden supporters.

Dueling Visions for America

The two candidates present starkly contrasting visions for America. 

From Biden’s perspective, we have spent the last two years digging out from under and dealing with a pandemic, a calamitous war in Ukraine, and associated high inflation from both. But generational investments in things like infrastructure, battling climate change, and American manufacturing herald a new era of American competitiveness with high paying, secure jobs, even for those without college degrees.

From Trump’s perspective, the woke left has seized control of the levers of government at all levels and has weaponized them against the GOP. Biden has tied us to wars that are not ours to fight, putting America last instead of America First. He has left the borders unsecured, killed our energy independence and destroyed families’ dreams by failing to address the soaring costs of living. Trump views himself not just as the champion of MAGA, but as its “justice” and its “retribution” for these harms.

But there’s one area of agreement: Both men assert that we remain locked in a battle “for the soul of the nation.” It’s just that the two candidates stake out opposite positions on what that soul is, and what our values should be. For Biden, who released a campaign launch video championing the idea of “freedom” from extremism, the Democrats champion the rule of law, democracy, equality, voter enfranchisement, free speech, reproductive choice and sensible gun regulation, while Republicans represent autocracy, voter suppression, bigotry, book bans, abortion bans and gun fanaticism. Trump’s MAGA movement believes Democrats are seeking to displace traditionally white, Christian, male, conservative power with minorities, women and LGBTQs. As portrayed in a dystopian, AI-generated video warning of a second Biden term, the GOP wants voters to believe that if this election is lost, the nation and indeed the world as they know it will be gone, too.

It is Biden’s positive, hopeful outlook that, I believe, offers the strongest baseline argument that he would prevail over Trump next year should the match-up repeat. Ultimately, most of the voting public wants to feel good about the future and to not think all the time about politics or what terrible thing might happen next. Biden is a boring politician to many, but that is also a huge relief after four years of a chaotic and unpredictable president. Talking about jobs, healthcare, education, tax fairness and the climate may not make for great ratings, but it’s these issues that impact working families the most. And if Biden is seen as someone who will uphold American values of freedom, especially when it comes to our bodies, whom we can love, and our right to enjoy civil life equally, he is the clear choice over Trump.

Trump’s outlook, which is a continuation of his grievance politics and his vision of American carnage, is dark, unsettled and, importantly, exhausting. It is very difficult to maintain outrage among any wide swath of people. The primary driver of this on behalf of Trump was Fox, but that network is facing existential challenges and just fired its most prized mouthpiece, Tucker Carlson. The only way to keep the MAGA base angry is to continue to invent whole fantasies and conspiracies that are increasingly untethered to reality. But that strategy failed to win over a majority of the center during the past three elections, and there are strong indications that they have had enough of it already this time around, too.

A few broad considerations moving public opinion

The economy. Biden’s economic record is a mixed bag, if public opinion is any indication. While the U.S. enjoys record low unemployment and strong job creation while inflation is coming down, high interest rates pushed by the Federal Reserve in response to inflation have soured the general economic outlook, and a recession is still a distinct possibility. Add to this some uncertainty in the banking sector and a wild card over the debt ceiling fight, and the economy might be facing a bumpy road throughout 2023 and into 2024. Indeed, if Republicans blow up the nation’s credit over the debt ceiling this summer, that would almost certainly cause a recession. And it isn’t clear that voters would take that out on the Republicans rather than blame Biden for it because it happened “on his watch.”

Reproductive rights. The question of abortion rights will be high on the list of concerns for many voters. Of greatest interest to the parties will be how suburban, white women, whom Trump won in 2020, will react, especially now that the extremism of the GOP has been laid bare. In key battleground states such as Wisconsin, Georgia and Arizona, preventing the GOP from passing more restrictive abortion laws could be a key, galvanizing driver for turnout. It already was in the recent state Supreme Court election in Wisconsin, where the pro-abortion rights candidate won by 11 points. Trump has been warning the GOP that further extremism on abortion access will hurt them with voters, but in the state legislatures the party appears not to heed that warning. If by November 2024 the GOP is equated nationally with abortion extremism, at least in the minds of most American women, that would spell electoral disaster for them from the top of the ticket down.

Election denialism. Trump continues to be backward-looking in his public speeches, insisting falsely that the 2020 election was stolen and that Biden’s presidency is illegitimate. While this may play to the hard core MAGA base, most Americans disagree with this line, and in 2022 many in the center voted resoundingly against Trump’s election deniers. Deep down, most Americans understand that we can’t have a functioning country if one side doesn’t accept the outcome of democratic elections when they don’t win. But that logic doesn’t seem to move Trump or his allies off their position. With even popular Fox hosts now revealed as private critics and skeptics of wild election conspiracies and their purveyors, it will be harder for Trump to campaign on this issue without losing more support from the center. Biden understands this well and used the wedge of MAGA extremism effectively in the 2022 midterms.

The current polling

There are three takeaways from the national polls as they stand today. First, most of the country doesn’t want either man to run again. Second, both men are underwater on their approval ratings. Third, any rematch would be close on the popular vote, were it to take place today.

None of this is terribly surprising, but we need to dive a bit deeper to understand what the polls are saying, with the caveat that they still aren’t really worth much because circumstances could change dramatically over the next year and a half.

Currently, in the latest NBC polling, Biden has 10 percent net unfavorables (38 approve, 48 disapprove), but Trump’s numbers are sizably worse at net 19 percent down (34 approve, 53 disapprove). Ironically, Trump polls better than his own MAGA movement, which has a net 21 percent negative rating. 

And while most Democrats don’t want Joe Biden to run again due to his age, according to a new Wall Street Journal poll, conducted by a pro-Trump pollster, among voters who disapprove of both candidates Biden leads Trump by a whopping 39 points—54 to 15 percent. Swing voters who would rather see fresh faces and younger candidates still vastly prefer Biden over Trump, who is himself going to be in his late 70s while campaigning.

On the left, voters say they want someone other than Biden, but as the campaign gets going, with even Sen. Bernie Sanders now endorsing Biden, that feeling may shift strongly, particularly as it becomes clear that the choice is the other guy.

The electoral math

Here’s another reason I believe Biden will beat Trump in 2024, barring unforeseen economic or personal health disasters: the electoral map and its associated math. The magic number is 270 electoral college votes, and that means we will look again to a handful of battleground states to put one of the candidates over the top. 

In past elections, these contests included the large states of Pennsylvania and Michigan. But Democrats have been making solid and consistent gains in these two states since losing them in 2016, and they won both statewide handily in 2022. Trump would be playing a serious game of catch-up against a well-organized Democratic Party in both states, all while the GOP state apparatuses are in disarray due to infighting and the undertow of extremism. As of now, it seems unlikely that Trump would win either of them.

That leaves three other big battlegrounds: Wisconsin, Arizona and Georgia. Assuming Michigan and Pennsylvania go his way, Biden would only have to win in one of these other states to capture the 270 electoral college votes he needs. And right now, he has the advantage in all three.

In the 2022 midterms, Trump’s hand-picked candidates in each state—Keri Lake in Arizona, Herschel Walker in Georgia, and Tim Michaels in Wisconsin—all lost to their Democratic rivals. The shadow of Trump loomed large in each of these contests, and that was enough to push middle-of-the-road voters over to the Democrats. With Trump himself on the ballot in 2024, the effect could be even more pronounced.

The most likely scenario, in fact, is a complete repeat of 2020, at least in terms of the electoral map. That means Biden would hold Wisconsin, Georgia and Arizona along with Pennsylvania, Michigan and Nevada. This is a nightmare scenario for the GOP, and they know that their best hope is to nominate someone else to the top of the Republican ticket.

But that isn’t likely. Trump is already pulling far ahead of his closest rival, Gov. Ron DeSantis of Florida, whose missteps, social-issue extremism, and general weirdness are eroding his support before he has even officially announced. Trump continues to have a lock on the MAGA base, which will make it very hard for anyone to dislodge him, even after he is presumably soon found civilly liable for rape and indicted on multiple state and federal crimes in the coming months. (I’m personally not of the camp that such legal developments actually will improve his standing among anyone except the extreme right.)

There’s one other thing to consider. In 2024, the GOP cannot make this election a referendum on Biden, much as it would love to, because Trump is actually a far worse problem. The MAGA movement effectively has the GOP locked in a death spiral, with Republican primaries decided by radical social conservatives, many of whom inhabit a bizarre, alternative reality built on conspiracies and lies. These voters will insist upon elevating and nominating the most extreme candidates, including Trump, even while most of America rejects and recoils at the thought, and even if it means resounding defeat in the general election.

That means that in 2024, Democrats will have an opportunity not only to beat Trump but even to send MAGA to the ash heap of politics. A lot could change, of course, especially in the economy or in Biden’s health, but there are already some strong political headwinds for the GOP. There is also the chance, albeit a narrow one, that Biden’s victory coattails could lift enough downstream candidates that Democrats retake the House while holding the Senate.

But that’s a happy discussion for another day.