The first in what will likely be several indictments against ex-president Donald Trump was unsealed yesterday, so it’s time to unpack and analyze! A few notes first, though, so we are all on the same page. The indictment itself is a very dry document containing what feel like repetitious charges, where just a few numbers and words have been changed from count to count. There are 34 counts of “Falsifying Records in the First Degree”—and we’ll later get to a reminder of what that means. They break down into 11 falsified invoices, 12 false general ledger entries and 11 false checks.
First, it's ludicrous to think that the court treated Trump like any other defendant that was indicted for like criminal activity. I get that he needs special treatment because of his high profile. And I get that they don't need to have him surrender his passport because he's an unlikely flight risk. But there was absolutely no discussion of "waiving bail," and releasing him under his own recognizance. Why is that? Shouldn't he have been required to post bond, like any other defendant? And why wasn't a trial date set, even if negotiated pleas are part of this particular accusation? I think this is important, because even if a trial ensues -- and Trump said he wants to defend in court -- it will likely be months away. Second, even though Bragg did take a risk with a relatively low level of felony crime, he is surely aware that there are three active investigations into Trump's wrongdoing. My guess is that the DA is anticipating other indictments while his case is pending. Trump will likely be campaigning next year under a much larger cloud of criminal scrutiny.
Depending on the timing, tRump may be spending far more time in two federal and two state courts during campaign season. It will be near impossible to effectively participate in the primary season and the general election campaign.
I have a feeling that the judge laid a trap for Trump here. He explicitly warned him to not incite violence, knowing full well that Trump has no self-control. If Trump's posts do lead to violence, the judge would have a much stronger case - not just legally, but in the eyes of the public - to have Trump arrested and held without bail.
Excellent legal analysis! Thank you very much! What about George Santos (or whatever his name is)? Do you think there will be an indictment against him for election/finance fraud? I am still baffled at him and MTG showing up at tRump's arraignment. My thoughts: "George, wrong date! This is your Boss' arraignment. Yours is on its way!"
As always, I wait until your substack so I can understand what's happening with these lawsuits. I really find it hard to believe that Bragg wouldn't make sure he had an ironclad case before bringing this before the grand jury. He's not a stupid man and I should think he knows the ramifications if his case was weak.
After reading and listening to a lot of analysis, I agree fully that the tax based approach seems the strongest. And the kicker, for me, was the explanation that the statute only requires INTENT. Therefore, even if Trump/Trump organization didn't follow through and file false tax returns claiming the payments as a business expense, guilt can still be found if they can link the intent over to Trump - it clearly seems to be there for both Cohen and the CFO.
I haven't heard that a cheek swab was required for *trump's arrest. Why not? And I wonder why his upcoming rape case (Apr. 25) - for which he refused to give up a DNA sample - continues to fly under the radar. And connecting tge two, I was hoping that the cheek swab would have been made available for the rape case. Could you comment, Jay?
There were many things to which regular defendants are subjected that were not done here due to his unique statute, security concerns, and the desire not to create more of a public spectacle than it already was. Trump would fundraise off the idea that he was treated like a criminal (cuffed, mug shotted swabbed) and it would no doubt add to his martyrdom. I can’t speak for the DA, but I could understand if the decision were to not give him those additional visuals and talking points.
So, you’re saying Trump — upon his arrest for 34 charged felonies — wasn’t treated like the private citizen that he is, after all? I find this fairly disheartening, actually.
Trump would be recognized just about anywhere in world. So where could he hide? (Russia, North Korea, Saudi Arabia....) But for how long? He has to open his mouth and spill the beans.
So no mugshot, what he going to do? Simple make one and grift off that.
In terms of the more complicated case of property valuations, I believe that the latest from Bragg is that the investigation continues, which implies that he certainly has the option to bring those charges at a later date.
Thank you for laying it all out with a clear mind. I'm wondering how the timing will work out with 2024 elections. This goes back in court in Dec 2023. Really hoping this won't drag in court. Then we have the Nov 2024 elections.
Since arraignment, Trump was warned and he is already posting online and calling Bragg a criminal. Surely he needs to be held accountable for what he posts and if it's inciting more violence . I bet he will try and raise money off of this, which is so unethical. You know MTG came to NYC yesterday for selfish reasons too to raise money and also to vie for Vice President. I can't stomach a TRUMP//EmptyG ticket. Regardless of what happens, we can't let democracy die with him not being held accountable. Here's to hoping for convictions on all those counts
Thank you for that wonderful clear explanation! One thing that struck me was the question of tax fraud - wouldn't that run into the same federal law vs. state law issue? Even for state or local taxes, I assume that New York State tax laws would not have their own rules on deductions, but mostly incorporate the federal ones by reference (probably with a few modifications here and there).
Super clear explanation, thanks, Jo!
It was. I’m am by no means financially savvy, and I understood it.
Another “catch and kill” enthusiast: Harvey Weinstein. It may not have been about taxes and political gain, but how similar the player.
First, it's ludicrous to think that the court treated Trump like any other defendant that was indicted for like criminal activity. I get that he needs special treatment because of his high profile. And I get that they don't need to have him surrender his passport because he's an unlikely flight risk. But there was absolutely no discussion of "waiving bail," and releasing him under his own recognizance. Why is that? Shouldn't he have been required to post bond, like any other defendant? And why wasn't a trial date set, even if negotiated pleas are part of this particular accusation? I think this is important, because even if a trial ensues -- and Trump said he wants to defend in court -- it will likely be months away. Second, even though Bragg did take a risk with a relatively low level of felony crime, he is surely aware that there are three active investigations into Trump's wrongdoing. My guess is that the DA is anticipating other indictments while his case is pending. Trump will likely be campaigning next year under a much larger cloud of criminal scrutiny.
Depending on the timing, tRump may be spending far more time in two federal and two state courts during campaign season. It will be near impossible to effectively participate in the primary season and the general election campaign.
I have a feeling that the judge laid a trap for Trump here. He explicitly warned him to not incite violence, knowing full well that Trump has no self-control. If Trump's posts do lead to violence, the judge would have a much stronger case - not just legally, but in the eyes of the public - to have Trump arrested and held without bail.
Under New York State law, judges may not require bail for the crimes Trump is accused of.
Thank you for being a "Legal System Windex." I see it all much more clearly now!
Gee thanks for the earworm!
Just like my ex. Busted because he couldn't resist even the small stupid things.
Excellent legal analysis! Thank you very much! What about George Santos (or whatever his name is)? Do you think there will be an indictment against him for election/finance fraud? I am still baffled at him and MTG showing up at tRump's arraignment. My thoughts: "George, wrong date! This is your Boss' arraignment. Yours is on its way!"
He’s under multiple investigations, but these take time…
As always, I wait until your substack so I can understand what's happening with these lawsuits. I really find it hard to believe that Bragg wouldn't make sure he had an ironclad case before bringing this before the grand jury. He's not a stupid man and I should think he knows the ramifications if his case was weak.
I seriously doubt he would proceed with a case he had any strong doubts about winning.
If you come at the king, you best not miss.
Exactly. He knows the eyes of the world (literally) will be watching. I have total faith that he knows what he’s doing.
Understood. Thank you!
After reading and listening to a lot of analysis, I agree fully that the tax based approach seems the strongest. And the kicker, for me, was the explanation that the statute only requires INTENT. Therefore, even if Trump/Trump organization didn't follow through and file false tax returns claiming the payments as a business expense, guilt can still be found if they can link the intent over to Trump - it clearly seems to be there for both Cohen and the CFO.
I haven't heard that a cheek swab was required for *trump's arrest. Why not? And I wonder why his upcoming rape case (Apr. 25) - for which he refused to give up a DNA sample - continues to fly under the radar. And connecting tge two, I was hoping that the cheek swab would have been made available for the rape case. Could you comment, Jay?
There were many things to which regular defendants are subjected that were not done here due to his unique statute, security concerns, and the desire not to create more of a public spectacle than it already was. Trump would fundraise off the idea that he was treated like a criminal (cuffed, mug shotted swabbed) and it would no doubt add to his martyrdom. I can’t speak for the DA, but I could understand if the decision were to not give him those additional visuals and talking points.
So, you’re saying Trump — upon his arrest for 34 charged felonies — wasn’t treated like the private citizen that he is, after all? I find this fairly disheartening, actually.
About no mugshot:
Trump would be recognized just about anywhere in world. So where could he hide? (Russia, North Korea, Saudi Arabia....) But for how long? He has to open his mouth and spill the beans.
So no mugshot, what he going to do? Simple make one and grift off that.
https://nypost.com/2023/04/04/get-yours-now-trump-campaign-peddles-not-guilty-t-shirts/
And my question about the rape trial? I'm guessing you didn't respond because you (just as the news media) see it as unimportant and/or unwinnable?
The rape case is a civil lawsuit. Would DNA collected by the DA's office even be available as evidence in a civil case?
Thanks as always, Jay. You give me peace of mind.
Excellent breakdown and thank you! One question, will the taped recording between Trump and Cohen be admissable in court?
Yes, because it while it is an out of court statement, it is also an admission by a party defendant.
In terms of the more complicated case of property valuations, I believe that the latest from Bragg is that the investigation continues, which implies that he certainly has the option to bring those charges at a later date.
Thank you for laying it all out with a clear mind. I'm wondering how the timing will work out with 2024 elections. This goes back in court in Dec 2023. Really hoping this won't drag in court. Then we have the Nov 2024 elections.
Since arraignment, Trump was warned and he is already posting online and calling Bragg a criminal. Surely he needs to be held accountable for what he posts and if it's inciting more violence . I bet he will try and raise money off of this, which is so unethical. You know MTG came to NYC yesterday for selfish reasons too to raise money and also to vie for Vice President. I can't stomach a TRUMP//EmptyG ticket. Regardless of what happens, we can't let democracy die with him not being held accountable. Here's to hoping for convictions on all those counts
Thank you for that wonderful clear explanation! One thing that struck me was the question of tax fraud - wouldn't that run into the same federal law vs. state law issue? Even for state or local taxes, I assume that New York State tax laws would not have their own rules on deductions, but mostly incorporate the federal ones by reference (probably with a few modifications here and there).
Thanks so much for this explanation and insightful analysis!