Tuesday’s primaries underscore Trump’s weaknesses; MAGA extremists dampen the GOP’s Senate chances; and the polls, should we care, actually hold some bright spots.
Jay, I have to say I'm amazed you can field all these things when you're on vacation. Thanks again for your diligence in creating one of the most useful substacks out there.
The only thing that’s ever really put a dent in Trump’s popularity is when people actually hear the things he says and believes. Which is ironic because, as a narcissist domestic abuser, it’s what he craves more than anything.
I’m glad you properly characterized the Democratic Moreno ads—they do NOT “promote” the most despicable candidates. They are quite clear about how terrible their subjects are. It’s the Republicans’ knee-jerk “the worse they are, the more I like them” reaction that turns it into a “promotion.” And the tactic has been extremely successful.
Good luck on the travel! Door-to-door to my in-laws is 31 hours, so I feel your pain.
Because of Trump's defamation suit against ABC and George Stephanopoulos for referring to him as a rapist, we should soon all get to hear legal parsing of finger penetration versus penis penetration and how that makes a difference to a woman who is shoved up against the wall against her will in a department store open to the public full of families with children shopping.
Weird legal point. In current NYS law it's only rape if it's a penis. In most states shoving your finger up a vagina without permission is considered rape of one kind or another. NYS is working on changing the law as well as adding unwanted anal penetration and oral sex. (Did you just find out more than you ever wanted to know about NYS rape laws?)
In comparing pre-election polling to actual results, the pattern is clear: Trump is garnering significantly fewer votes than his polling suggests. Conversely, Joe Biden has been consistently performing at or over the result pre-election polling suggested. A guy over at 538 recently said that when polling is consistently wrong and wrong in the same direction, there's something way off with the polling. Personally, I think the polling is consistently overvaluing Trump support and undervaluing Biden's.
The primaries so far have shown that Biden's support among Democrats is significantly stronger than is Trump's among republicans. Haley seems to have cashed in among suburban voters, especially women, who simply refuse to cast a ballot for Trump. If even half of Haley's voters follow through and refuse to support Trump in the general, Biden has a serious chance of rebuilding his 2020 coalition, possibly even a stronger one. The anti-Trump vote among republicans, while nowhere near a majority, has continued to grow in each election cycle: In 2020, it was between 3-8%; in 2022 [post-Dobbs], it was 7-11%. If half of the Haley vote is truly anti-Trump, then in 2024, 10-20% of republican votes are up for grabs. The Biden campaign needs to targets those voters like a laser, but I like our chances.
We also need to send lots of support to John Tester-MT and Sherrod Brown-OH if we want to keep the senate.
That is interesting because the reverse was true in 2020 when Trump did better than the polls. It would be great if that polling bias has been eliminated.
Considering those polls were the most inaccurate in a generation according to pollsters at Vanderbilt U, it's not surprising - especially in light of the fact that Trump was telling his voters not to participate in polls, and they didn't.
OTOH, NYT continues to beat the drum about Biden's "losses" amongst young voters and Hispanics in general...also making a big deal over the "uncommitted" vote in several states. Anything to keep the horserace narrative alive, balancing these Biden shortfalls with the very large non/anti-tRump voting in Repub primaries, votes that are less likely to return to tRump in November than are those "protest" votes against Biden, many of which will vote Dem in the general election, IMHO.
I agree with you about Ohio. Sherrod Brown is quite popular there and having the general election race be between him and MAGA Moreno will, I hope, help Brown retain his seat. Even with the loser conman’s support, Moreno only won with a little over 50% of the GOP votes. Almost 50% preferred someone else. That is not a good sign; hardly a ringing endorsement.
“His core supporters tend to be older, white Americans, and there are many millions fewer of them than the last time he won eight years ago” - also due to the number of COVID deaths caused by his bungling of the pandemic response.
Sorry I don't have a link handy and I'm on the run (have a safe trip, Jay), but I saw a news story somewhere that said a poll revealed that there are a lot of Republicans unaware of the E Jean Carroll verdict. If that's true, I have to believe that the same Republicans (something like 30% last I saw, I think?) who won't vote for him upon conviction will also react to this info similarly.
I know a few of these types here in Georgia. They're more inclined to reject him out of hand for this kind of stuff once they become more engaged with the details of this election (we're all political nerds here, most people are not). Some will even vote for Biden as news about his programs trickle out. Some will stay home, but that still helps us.
I think Trump's defamation case against ABC and Stephanopoulos is a huge unforced error. Along about the time the public starts paying attention to the election we will be hearing the merits of forced finger penetration versus forced penis penetration and why one is okay and not the other. The man is a genius! Not.
I don't think the E. Jean Carroll verdict will matter to Republicans. He already told everyone in 2016 that he did things like this and he also continues to say that he has no idea who she is and they will believe him.
Not sure about that. I don't think that matters as much now that he has been President. I think like his "own the libs, drain the swamp, anti-establishment, I'm the victim" shtick more than that he is "rich." But we will see as this plays out. He clearly is not as rich as he said he was.
Some of us have always known he was not as rich as he claimed.
My favorite line from the 2020 campaign is from Mike Bloomberg.
"In Texas, when asked whether the country wanted a race between two New York billionaires, he replied, “Who’s the other one?” "
Trump supporters don't strike me as people who excuse weakness. Yes, he was president but he lost to Joe Biden. Yes, he's a big businessman but he can't do business in NY and no one will lend him money.
There used to be a saying about wolves. You could work with them in captivity for years but the first time you limped in the enclosure, they'd attack.
I think you might be underestimating how much of a cult MAGA is. They believe EVERYTHING he says. As you correctly point out, he has never been as rich as he said he was but he lies about it and they believe him.
Not everyone who votes for Trump is part of the cult. The cult is big, but it's not 40% of the voting population big. It's those who are not part of the cult we need to reach, and I don't think we serve our cause well to call every Trump voter part of a cult.
I think it will matter to just enough of them to bury him in the election. It doesn't have to be a lot of them. I can think of two people I know already it matters to.
I just kind of wonder if after so many of these trials he's losing and money he can't come up with - does he ever lose their allegiance? He just comes off as such a whiner. Everyone is out to get him, moan, moan, moan... And the constant email begging for money. His campaign sends out 6-10 email/texts a day to their mailing list.
If it were me, I'd be putting those in my junk folder. And if I got that many a day, I'd be thinking - What a loser.
How do they square trump moaning on and on about people out to get him if they aren't aware of the lawsuits against him? Do they just think he's a crazy man but they are ok with that? It's confusing to me.
I wish I had the link to the story handy but I have no idea where I saw it. But I do know the number of "Republicans" who aren't aware of the details of the E Jean Carroll suit are not aware that he was essentially convicted of sexual assault in a civil court.
To answer your question, I think they look at the Carroll case as defamation case, since that is how the mass media frames it in its stories. So they shrug it off and don't look any further.
These are probably people who don't pay much attention to the news and doesn't reflect the cult.
You can add the results in a number of key offyear elections in the past year, where Democratic candidates and progressive policies greatly outperformed the polls and won by landslides.
There’s an open debate about whether these early wins overestimate how Biden will perform in 2024 bc it’s high frequency voters who are driving those results. I tend to think low frequency voters are persuadable in the final months of the campaign and will break for Biden.
I think pollsters, pundits, very wise people still haven't come to terms with the effect of the Dobbs decision. Now add in the personhood vs IVF legislation that is ramping up. Even if you are super anti abortion, if you want to have your own baby and have problems conceiving - you want IVF. The only moral IVF of an forced birther is their IVF...
When it was just abortion, it didn't bother a lot of people. Then we started seeing women having to wait in their cars until they got sick enough for care. Then the IVF problem in Alabama. That shit is stacking up. Turns out it's not just abortion that took a hit.
I would, perhaps too optimistically, view the results as indicating that groups of voters who are normally somewhat complacent have woken up to the import of the issues and the MAGA project. And voting tends to become a habit, especially if you vote for a winning cause or candidate. No room for complacency on our collective part, however. Lots of tough work ahead.
What is most disturbing is how more than one million people in Florida think that Trump is a good choice for anything. And they are all around the country in significant numbers. How will the US ever recover from a reality like this? If Biden wins there will be a lot of unhappy Trump followers and a lot of them are willing to be violent. They have been brainwashed into a reality where Biden lost the election and the justice system is working with the illegitimate president. Establishment Republicans are feeding this illusion on every turn to stay in power. How will this end?
These folks have always been with us. In the past, they were slavers, the KKK, Nazis, and white supremacists. Today, they are MAGA, Proud Boyz, and Ted Nugent. Sadly, about 30% of the US population has always been bigoted.
Donald is looking more and more like Lonesome Rhoads in the movie "A Face in the Crowd". Loudmouth loser self-destructing. He's pushing away all but the most deluded. Trump World is about to implode.
At least we're focused on the election in November rather than holding out hope for some magical outcome from a court case. I think his strategy of delay and being helped by certain courts is going to make it so that none of the consequential trials happen unless he loses the election. So I'm happy that the focus is on winning in November! I think that's where we have the power to keep him out of the white house.
If most of his trials wait until after the election and he loses. It's really going to change the legal landscape of his cases. And not in his favor.
I think Judge Loose Cannon is going to be removed in the next few months. The last thing she came out with was a doozy. But that case won't happen until next year.
I think the Bragg - money laundering/campaign shenanigans trial may happen during the summer. The rest are all likely to wait.
What worries me is that holding him accountable in the courts is not likely to happen before the election, which in his mind means he's "gotten away with it". Given the stakes for him, "winning" by hook or crook becomes life or death. We already know what he was willing to do to hold on to power but what is he willing to do to attain power to keep himself out of jail? That question keeps me up at night because there's a level of desperation that makes him incredibly dangerous. But the courts will provide no relief. Yes, the Stormy case may happen but it doesn't move the needle at all. Democrats will cheer. MAGA will growl. And independents will shrug. So that one doesn't warrant any real attention IMO.
Thanks for this, Jay. I don't know why I still find it unbelievable that the race is or is being presented as close. Do news outlets just want to keep the national anxiety levels high?
(Also your vacation looked amazing! Thanks for sharing.)
Jay, I have to say I'm amazed you can field all these things when you're on vacation. Thanks again for your diligence in creating one of the most useful substacks out there.
💯 agree!
in the airport yet!
The only thing that’s ever really put a dent in Trump’s popularity is when people actually hear the things he says and believes. Which is ironic because, as a narcissist domestic abuser, it’s what he craves more than anything.
I’m glad you properly characterized the Democratic Moreno ads—they do NOT “promote” the most despicable candidates. They are quite clear about how terrible their subjects are. It’s the Republicans’ knee-jerk “the worse they are, the more I like them” reaction that turns it into a “promotion.” And the tactic has been extremely successful.
Good luck on the travel! Door-to-door to my in-laws is 31 hours, so I feel your pain.
Because of Trump's defamation suit against ABC and George Stephanopoulos for referring to him as a rapist, we should soon all get to hear legal parsing of finger penetration versus penis penetration and how that makes a difference to a woman who is shoved up against the wall against her will in a department store open to the public full of families with children shopping.
Well, I guess we now know who was the victim in his convo with Billy Bush.
I'd say we now know one of the victims he was talking about.
He filed it a day or two ago. What a pant load!
https://thehill.com/regulation/court-battles/4541257-trump-sues-abc-stephanopoulos-alleging-defamation-mace-interview/
Weird legal point. In current NYS law it's only rape if it's a penis. In most states shoving your finger up a vagina without permission is considered rape of one kind or another. NYS is working on changing the law as well as adding unwanted anal penetration and oral sex. (Did you just find out more than you ever wanted to know about NYS rape laws?)
In comparing pre-election polling to actual results, the pattern is clear: Trump is garnering significantly fewer votes than his polling suggests. Conversely, Joe Biden has been consistently performing at or over the result pre-election polling suggested. A guy over at 538 recently said that when polling is consistently wrong and wrong in the same direction, there's something way off with the polling. Personally, I think the polling is consistently overvaluing Trump support and undervaluing Biden's.
The primaries so far have shown that Biden's support among Democrats is significantly stronger than is Trump's among republicans. Haley seems to have cashed in among suburban voters, especially women, who simply refuse to cast a ballot for Trump. If even half of Haley's voters follow through and refuse to support Trump in the general, Biden has a serious chance of rebuilding his 2020 coalition, possibly even a stronger one. The anti-Trump vote among republicans, while nowhere near a majority, has continued to grow in each election cycle: In 2020, it was between 3-8%; in 2022 [post-Dobbs], it was 7-11%. If half of the Haley vote is truly anti-Trump, then in 2024, 10-20% of republican votes are up for grabs. The Biden campaign needs to targets those voters like a laser, but I like our chances.
We also need to send lots of support to John Tester-MT and Sherrod Brown-OH if we want to keep the senate.
That is interesting because the reverse was true in 2020 when Trump did better than the polls. It would be great if that polling bias has been eliminated.
Considering those polls were the most inaccurate in a generation according to pollsters at Vanderbilt U, it's not surprising - especially in light of the fact that Trump was telling his voters not to participate in polls, and they didn't.
And it still worries me a bit that hard core MAGA voters are underrepresented in polls.
I agree, but it seems they may have been overrepresented in pre-primary polls this time, which failed to catch the anti-Trump/Haley vote.
Awesome!
Work as if we are behind, yet have swagger. Ignore polls and sprint through the finish.
OTOH, NYT continues to beat the drum about Biden's "losses" amongst young voters and Hispanics in general...also making a big deal over the "uncommitted" vote in several states. Anything to keep the horserace narrative alive, balancing these Biden shortfalls with the very large non/anti-tRump voting in Repub primaries, votes that are less likely to return to tRump in November than are those "protest" votes against Biden, many of which will vote Dem in the general election, IMHO.
I wrote about the problem with the way the NYT polls Latinos, focusing 98 percent on English speaking households. It’s really ridiculous.
Don't listen to anything Nate Kohn dribbles out of his polling cesspool. He's the most unreliable poll analyst I've ever seen at a major news org.
I agree with you about Ohio. Sherrod Brown is quite popular there and having the general election race be between him and MAGA Moreno will, I hope, help Brown retain his seat. Even with the loser conman’s support, Moreno only won with a little over 50% of the GOP votes. Almost 50% preferred someone else. That is not a good sign; hardly a ringing endorsement.
“His core supporters tend to be older, white Americans, and there are many millions fewer of them than the last time he won eight years ago” - also due to the number of COVID deaths caused by his bungling of the pandemic response.
They did studies - more Republicans died than Democrats did.
Sorry I don't have a link handy and I'm on the run (have a safe trip, Jay), but I saw a news story somewhere that said a poll revealed that there are a lot of Republicans unaware of the E Jean Carroll verdict. If that's true, I have to believe that the same Republicans (something like 30% last I saw, I think?) who won't vote for him upon conviction will also react to this info similarly.
I know a few of these types here in Georgia. They're more inclined to reject him out of hand for this kind of stuff once they become more engaged with the details of this election (we're all political nerds here, most people are not). Some will even vote for Biden as news about his programs trickle out. Some will stay home, but that still helps us.
I think Trump's defamation case against ABC and Stephanopoulos is a huge unforced error. Along about the time the public starts paying attention to the election we will be hearing the merits of forced finger penetration versus forced penis penetration and why one is okay and not the other. The man is a genius! Not.
Completely agree.
Good point.
Doubt there is a schedule. Trump just filed a day or two ago.
https://thehill.com/regulation/court-battles/4541257-trump-sues-abc-stephanopoulos-alleging-defamation-mace-interview/
I don't think the E. Jean Carroll verdict will matter to Republicans. He already told everyone in 2016 that he did things like this and he also continues to say that he has no idea who she is and they will believe him.
I agree.
What will matter is that he can't come up with the money.
Not being able to write a check means he's not really rich. Being rich and powerful is why they like him.
Not sure about that. I don't think that matters as much now that he has been President. I think like his "own the libs, drain the swamp, anti-establishment, I'm the victim" shtick more than that he is "rich." But we will see as this plays out. He clearly is not as rich as he said he was.
Some of us have always known he was not as rich as he claimed.
My favorite line from the 2020 campaign is from Mike Bloomberg.
"In Texas, when asked whether the country wanted a race between two New York billionaires, he replied, “Who’s the other one?” "
Trump supporters don't strike me as people who excuse weakness. Yes, he was president but he lost to Joe Biden. Yes, he's a big businessman but he can't do business in NY and no one will lend him money.
There used to be a saying about wolves. You could work with them in captivity for years but the first time you limped in the enclosure, they'd attack.
I wouldn't limp in front of a Trump supporter.
I think you might be underestimating how much of a cult MAGA is. They believe EVERYTHING he says. As you correctly point out, he has never been as rich as he said he was but he lies about it and they believe him.
Which is why his whining that he can't come up with the $457M is going to have more of a hit than actual financials would.
Not everyone who votes for Trump is part of the cult. The cult is big, but it's not 40% of the voting population big. It's those who are not part of the cult we need to reach, and I don't think we serve our cause well to call every Trump voter part of a cult.
I think it will matter to just enough of them to bury him in the election. It doesn't have to be a lot of them. I can think of two people I know already it matters to.
I hope you are right.
I'm always right! Except that time I said there was no way he could beat Hillary.
Probably because that is what Trump tells them.
I just kind of wonder if after so many of these trials he's losing and money he can't come up with - does he ever lose their allegiance? He just comes off as such a whiner. Everyone is out to get him, moan, moan, moan... And the constant email begging for money. His campaign sends out 6-10 email/texts a day to their mailing list.
If it were me, I'd be putting those in my junk folder. And if I got that many a day, I'd be thinking - What a loser.
How do they square trump moaning on and on about people out to get him if they aren't aware of the lawsuits against him? Do they just think he's a crazy man but they are ok with that? It's confusing to me.
I wish I had the link to the story handy but I have no idea where I saw it. But I do know the number of "Republicans" who aren't aware of the details of the E Jean Carroll suit are not aware that he was essentially convicted of sexual assault in a civil court.
To answer your question, I think they look at the Carroll case as defamation case, since that is how the mass media frames it in its stories. So they shrug it off and don't look any further.
These are probably people who don't pay much attention to the news and doesn't reflect the cult.
You can add the results in a number of key offyear elections in the past year, where Democratic candidates and progressive policies greatly outperformed the polls and won by landslides.
There’s an open debate about whether these early wins overestimate how Biden will perform in 2024 bc it’s high frequency voters who are driving those results. I tend to think low frequency voters are persuadable in the final months of the campaign and will break for Biden.
I think pollsters, pundits, very wise people still haven't come to terms with the effect of the Dobbs decision. Now add in the personhood vs IVF legislation that is ramping up. Even if you are super anti abortion, if you want to have your own baby and have problems conceiving - you want IVF. The only moral IVF of an forced birther is their IVF...
When it was just abortion, it didn't bother a lot of people. Then we started seeing women having to wait in their cars until they got sick enough for care. Then the IVF problem in Alabama. That shit is stacking up. Turns out it's not just abortion that took a hit.
I would, perhaps too optimistically, view the results as indicating that groups of voters who are normally somewhat complacent have woken up to the import of the issues and the MAGA project. And voting tends to become a habit, especially if you vote for a winning cause or candidate. No room for complacency on our collective part, however. Lots of tough work ahead.
What is most disturbing is how more than one million people in Florida think that Trump is a good choice for anything. And they are all around the country in significant numbers. How will the US ever recover from a reality like this? If Biden wins there will be a lot of unhappy Trump followers and a lot of them are willing to be violent. They have been brainwashed into a reality where Biden lost the election and the justice system is working with the illegitimate president. Establishment Republicans are feeding this illusion on every turn to stay in power. How will this end?
We overcame a mindset that thought it was just super fine and good to enslave other human beings against their will. We can do this.
These folks have always been with us. In the past, they were slavers, the KKK, Nazis, and white supremacists. Today, they are MAGA, Proud Boyz, and Ted Nugent. Sadly, about 30% of the US population has always been bigoted.
I may actually get a good night sleep tonight - cautious optimism is a hellava lot better than where I've been :) thank you! as usual ...
Trump is damaged goods. The shiny new object he ain't. Sleep well, we got this.
Donald is looking more and more like Lonesome Rhoads in the movie "A Face in the Crowd". Loudmouth loser self-destructing. He's pushing away all but the most deluded. Trump World is about to implode.
At least we're focused on the election in November rather than holding out hope for some magical outcome from a court case. I think his strategy of delay and being helped by certain courts is going to make it so that none of the consequential trials happen unless he loses the election. So I'm happy that the focus is on winning in November! I think that's where we have the power to keep him out of the white house.
If most of his trials wait until after the election and he loses. It's really going to change the legal landscape of his cases. And not in his favor.
I think Judge Loose Cannon is going to be removed in the next few months. The last thing she came out with was a doozy. But that case won't happen until next year.
I think the Bragg - money laundering/campaign shenanigans trial may happen during the summer. The rest are all likely to wait.
What worries me is that holding him accountable in the courts is not likely to happen before the election, which in his mind means he's "gotten away with it". Given the stakes for him, "winning" by hook or crook becomes life or death. We already know what he was willing to do to hold on to power but what is he willing to do to attain power to keep himself out of jail? That question keeps me up at night because there's a level of desperation that makes him incredibly dangerous. But the courts will provide no relief. Yes, the Stormy case may happen but it doesn't move the needle at all. Democrats will cheer. MAGA will growl. And independents will shrug. So that one doesn't warrant any real attention IMO.
As long as he doesn't win the election I'm fine with his comeuppance coming in 2025. But I get what you saying. It makes sense.
Wishing you safe travels and US and our allies a sane and brighter future. 💙
Thanks for this, Jay. I don't know why I still find it unbelievable that the race is or is being presented as close. Do news outlets just want to keep the national anxiety levels high?
(Also your vacation looked amazing! Thanks for sharing.)
Safe home! 💙