I am still hoping that our military chooses to disobey Trump, as does the Intelligence Community, and not support Trump's obvious humiliation of them, by refusing to follow any orders that violate the constitution.
That disobedience will only happen when we reach the "Break Glass". point.
It cou;d only happen with a covert, well hiddedn, agreement in the entire military to do something they have sworn an oath not to do: stage a coup against civilian authority.
If following the orders of the civilian leaders and the toady generals it installs ALSO violates the military oath to support the constitution, we could see either a coup or more likely just an "up yours" at the orders.
Yeah, which is why I'm hoping we see a lot of malicious compliance in the face of those orders. There may be some toady Generals, but there's 2.5 million members of the military and something like 700,000 civilians work for the DOD in some capacity. 4 years just isn't long enough to fundamentally change an organization that big with such a strong existing culture. I know there are serious concerns that it would only be 4 years, but I'd put money on Trump shuffling off this mortal coil by 2028 or being so demented that its undeniable (which crazy considering how obviously demented he is now). There are MAGA people in the military, sure, but they are not the majority.
Malicious compliance essentially boils down to people conforming to the letter, but not the spirit, of a request. You strictly follow an order from a superior, even though you know the order is bad or unconstitutional. However, you follow the order in a way that undermines or ignores the intent of the order.
I disagree. I think they could change the ethos of this military machine extremely quickly with their plans to take down so many leadership positions. And resistance from them?? I don’t it happening. The resisters will try to leave, I guess.
Hitler had people in his army who rebelled. There will be people, already Trump was talked out of things before. Just like we had Kinzinger and Cheney who said that they stood by the Constitution not loyalty to a person, I assume there are those in the military who will say that too. And in the intelligence community.
Would you be interested in buying the Brooklyn bridge? Sorry, just being snide. But thinking the military would actually defy trump seems unlikely. See history of Germany WWII.
Actually I live in Germany right now and I recommend Prof. Timothy Snyder's history of WWII called Black Earth. Here is a review from when it came out.
My daughter who is in University in Germany this year, had German history that included The Weimar Republic and the Nazis, and so we discussed it a lot. We know that there were plots to kill him from within the military elite and he survived them. So, that was defiance. The unlikely is happening now, but it is obviously not unlikely. Still, I don't see them going along with Trump selling us to the Russians and the Chinese.
Germany wanted to take over Europe (and then Great Britain, Russia Africa and eventually the US I’d guess). I’d doubt 47 has that grandiose a goal, but I wouldn’t put any money on the guys that are really calling the plays. And our situation doesn’t really correspond to Russia or China. That’s something that gives me a tiny sense of hope.
Trump has a bigger grandious goal which is to destroy the entire US for Putin and Xi. That has been made clear by Prof. Timothy Snyder who he is doing it for. Since, I am in a book club that has been reading Project 2025. We have read 20 of the 30 chapters plus the Forward so far and discussed them, that includes the chapters on the Department of Defense, and the Intelligence Community, I understand what is planned. Here is what Snyder says in articles. One is called The Submission Chain where he lays out the hierarchy.
The problem with the military resisting is that an order is like passing a baton in a relay race. No one wants to be "that one" who decides to halt the process and ostracize themselves by disobeying. That's because they know no one will dare do the same, even if they 100% sympathize with his action. That job supports their families.
I'd love for the media to keep track of a 12-person sample of how all those struggling working people who voted for trump, thinking he was really going to help them, wind up as the years (months?) go by. First clue that trump and his people aren't tuned into working people or their needs: a couple of cynical billionaires being turned loose to slice two trillion dollars (or whatever whimsical amount they decide), from our country's institutions which are there to help working people. I'd love to be a fly on their walls when they realize they made a big, huge mistake that they can't fix. I think the first heroic action someone could do is to release the House's Ethic Committee's Report on Matt Gaetz either online, or to a huge national publication. These cabinet choices are going to be a gift to Dems, like his first term choices wound up being.
There are lots of problems with it, but I will assume you have not read Project 2025 so do not understand Trump's plans for the DOD and the Intelligence Community. He plans to humiliate them all. He plans to have people in power who are loyalists, but they will not be well treated. They will be switched around from department to department.
You are assuming we will have a media that is free to report on what they want to. Here are Andra Watkins, who also lives abroad and who also has read Project 2025s advice for how to prepare yourself for the shitstorm that is coming. As Snyder puts it, "This is no longer a post-electoral moment. It is a pre-catastrophic moment. "
Andra Watkins is giving advice about preparing for the changes that you can expect to happen.
My friend who is a prof. of Russian and Slavic languages says all of her colleagues are saying they want to leave the US. We know that people are applying for passports massively and people are reading how to move to Canada and other countries.
Don't you think the military is also aware of who Trump is, and he is no friend to the military, and wants to sell them out to Putin. Or, do you believe all of the military is suddenly a Russian asset too? Or China asset? I would like to believe they are going to look out for themselves as in institution. A president who has no limits to his power is not someone to work for. Supposedly 1/3 of the people know White Supremacists in the military, and those White Supremacists want to blow up the nation and the constitution. But does that mean 1/3 is WS, or that everyone else wants to destroy the constitution? I do not think that is true.
But if it is by the time anyone realizes there is a big mistake it may be too late.
Senators think they’re special. What makes them special is their advise and consent power. Give that away and they’re nothing but members of the House with a longer term. So I’d be somewhat surprised if Thune gave away the power he worked so long and hard to get.
I tend to agree, but it may not be just up to Thune, I’m afraid. I see a path where Johnson and Trump negate the Senate’s power by creating a disagreement with the Senate over when to adjourn, thereby creating an opportunity for Trump to unilaterally act.
The appointment during recess clause says he can appoint to vacancies which opened during recess. It has been interpreted as any openings. But could someone sue and claim it is only for newly opened positions? If not successful it could at least gum up the works.
Yeah, but doing so didn't ultimately undermine his own power and didn't hurt him politically. He's a spineless POS for sure, it is just harder to imagine completely ceding the power he has, but who the hell knows.
Thank you--that is my feeling as well. Of course, we could all be wrong, but Trump has blown up so many political careers...I doubt Thune wants to be on that list.
It's a sex trafficking case. She was a student that was paid to attend parties where sex and drugs were used. If you want more detail search for Gaetz's friend Joel Greenberg who was sentenced in 2022.
My mental picture of the USS Trump is truly unfortunate and I can only hope there are many icebergs in its immediate future.
Jay, I’d really like to see you expand on Trump’s increased calls for recess appointments given the usual criteria don’t apply, e.g. it’s not yet a recess, he’s not yet president, it’s not an emergency etc. How likely is he to actually succeed in getting this clown car list seated without the usual confirmation hearings, background checks, given the laws, etc.? Can he truly bypass FBI background checks and so on.
I was hoping people wouldn’t provide the road map for this so clearly to the other side—one I said I could see for myself but intentionally didn’t lay out in my piece earlier this week. I don’t know if Johnson will help set up a situation where Trump can unilaterally declare a recess, but I wouldn’t put it past him. We are in very dangerous shark infested waters.
If I recall correctly, the recess has to be at least 10 days before the appointments are consitutional. This was the Supremes (and of course in their role as Extremes they could change this). So assuming Thune has real objections to some of the appointments, what is to stop him a) agreeing to a recess and then calling the Senate back after just a few days, thus setting up Johnson to have to object again, and trump have to unilaterally declare a recess and then call Senate back until the Extremes HAVE to notice trump is playing games? Do you think even the conservatives on the court want the country destroyed? What happens to THEIR jobs if it is?
It could be that we're thinking about this takeover the wrong way. It could be that none of the major players are interested in accumulating more wealth. It could be that they are so deranged that the goal, the whole point of doing this, is to utterly destroy the U.S. Not for any further goal, just destruction for the sake of destruction.
Yeah, that's what project 2025 is a blueprint for doing. Because we know trump is simply a tool, and there is going to be a pretty vicious competition among all his inner circle to control him, and they're all absolutely idiots and corrupt, you have to know they're going to really screw up somehow and lead to their downfall. I just wonder how badly they have to screw up before people have enough. I'd really like Jack Smith to leave the US and live elsewhere in safety.
There are probably a lot of people who should get out while they can. The problem is, they became people who *should* run by being people who *won't* run.
This has been one of my biggest misgivings about the speculations about paths to autocracy--I really fear it's giving the miscreants an even clearer roadmap than Project 2025 already provides.
Today he is pointing out that all of these appointments are a collective that is well thought out which is deliberate to destroy the USA. Revenge from Putin via Trump his biggest asset. A path to the destruction of the USA, which will make life miserable for all, but for those on the bottom most of all. https://open.substack.com/pub/snyder/p/decapitation-strike?r=f0qfn&utm_campaign=post&utm_medium=web
So, at this point I am seeing the only way we can be saved from this is our existing Democrats holding the line where they can, and the DOD and Intelligence community standing up to Trump. In fact, there are plenty who know the keys of regime change. Let it not be Putin changing ours, but us changing his.
I will take this very logical and valid line of reasoning a step farther.
If the Senate accedes to his demands for blanket recess appointments, Biden and the Pentagon had best be in deep, formal discussion about collaborating on direct intervention.
If they have not been in just those sorts of discussions for quite a while now they have been grossly derelict and negligent in their responsibilities. Homeland Security designated Jan. 6, 2025 a National Special Security Event six or eight weeks ago; it would seem reasonable that parallel preparations with the Pentagon would have gotten under way as well.
I hadn't heard about that designation of Jan 6, 2025, but it makes sense. Truly underscores the terrifying time we live in that they had to actually game out preventing another coup attempt.
Unfortunately for us, the coup succeeded this time and they didn't have to storm of the Capitol to do it. The next 4 years should be designated a National Special Security Event.
I also have wondered, if this country is destroyed, how much wealth will the oligarchs be left with?
When the consumers are left trying conserve their money to buy necessities (food, housing, clothing, gas, paying off credit cards) and have little leftover, who is going buy those expensive cars, phones, TV, etc)? We already have seen businesses shift their ready cash in response to tariff increases that TFG promised.
The oligarchs have more wealth than they ever will need and they don't need to sell anything else. I have been saying that Project 2025 is going to turn us into a third world country because the appointments he is making have no surprises to me. Not about the names, but about what type of people he is picking. Christian Nationalists, with a lot of Russian assets like he is. He is a Chinese asset too. Trump didn't know a dollar he was not willing to sell his soul to earn.
While it has the reward effect that makes them want to go for and need more to feel whatever high they feel from acquiring wealth, they still will be financially fine without us.
I guess what matters to them most is being able to rule over the ashes. The associated problem is that some of them have so much money they could lose a $100 billion and not even notice (materially, at least). It's not like your quality of life is that different if you have $5 billion instead of $50 billion.
I hold that the insane wealth/income inequality that has been growing since the 1980s and Reagan is the fundamental problem. No one needs $200 billion or, hell, even $2 billion. Enough is never enough for these people. The concentration of wealth at the top coupled with Citizens United allowing unlimited dark money to be poured into our elections are the two biggest reasons why we're here, in my opinion.
He is doing it for Putin and Xi, and he will monetize it by selling our secrets to them and the Saudis, and the Omanis, and anyone he can rent a very expensive hotel room to.
My favorite dream iceberg scenario is the one where the captain of the Trumptanic keels over from a stroke or a heart attack just when they sight the iceberg, but too late to turn the ship out of harms way. PS: We the People and the next Dem team to run for President are the iceberg!
Problem is Vance is not only inexperienced and a Christian Nationalist but I think easily manipulated so we’d have Musk, Thiel, Leonard and others calling the shots.
Agreed. And I actually think this is the plan. A Vance Presidency just speeds up 2025 with more serious, but equally nefarious appointments. Think General Flynn.
Vance may be easy to manipulate, but I do not think the MAGAs have the same slavish devotion to him that they have to Trump. Vance simply doesn't have that mysterious fascination (if it's charisma, then I am completely devoid of the gene that enables one to see it) that Trump has for them. If The Reps and Senators see that Vance doesn't have the MAGA base, they may be a lot more willing to buck him than they are to buck Trump. If Vance in any way starts or enables a 25th Amendment proceeding...hoo, I'll bet that will rile the base--and not in a good way.
Yes. There was hope with all the Republican leadership from the past saying they were endorsing Kamala that there is still a base of what used to be called "normal" Republicans. And getting rid of Trump could bring them back. Nobody is betting on that now.
Vance has negative charisma with MAGA-folk, and the TechBros haven’t a clue how the government works. Leo knows government but isn’t going to be a “face”; he isn’t going to suddenly be a visible player. This doesn’t mean Vance et alia can’t do damage, but I don’t think the Republicans (Senate, House) have as much fear of them. Perhaps they should, but they don’t.
Seems to me that if the Senate allows him these recess appointments, they're ceding responsibility for vetting the incompetents and they may see that as protecting their "integrity" to their constituents. Then, when these creatures push nefarious actions, the (R)s will say they never supported them in the first place.
I also was wondering if all those same bypasses, (very likely lacking the normal FBI background check, and perhaps the House's Ethics Committee's final report on Matt Gaetz wont be allowed to be released). Are going to wind up ensuring that these into recess appointments.
I wonder if these completely wackadoodle nominees are a trial balloon--Trump puts them out to see what the reaction is. We get outraged, and then when someone even slightly less horrible is proposed, we breathe a sigh of relief. It's an attempt to normalize the still truly awful second choice picks.
Two things can be true at once. He could be serious about installing a loyalist extremist in every important branch of government, and he could be testing the resolve of the Senate early.
The wackadoodle nominees and the demand that the Senate allow them as recess appointments are calculated punches in the nose to the Senate to find out how many times the orange criminal can hit them before they finally fight back. They also allow the orange criminal to see who might actually stand up to a punch or two -- that is, not be unquestioningly 100% loyal -- and should therefore be vilified or purged.
Second, it's an application of the "flood the zone with shit" strategy. One or two or maybe even three of the nominees will get filtered out, but that process will be so cumbersome and politically costly to those doing the filtering that the other nominees, all extremists or at least empty-suit compliant (think Rubio) in their own ways, will face much less rigorous opposition, if any at all. Other equally awful but less politically or socially toxic nominees can always be found -- traitors, ideologues, cowards, grifters, and other willing ass-kissers looking for seats on the gravy train abound.
Remember that in the twisted world of narcissists, even bad publicity is still publicity; dominating the news cycle is what counts, not the quality or virtue of the news. "Owning the libs" is (from the MAGA perspective) a serendipitous byproduct of the above.
I hate to say it but I'm almost relived with Rubio as Sec of State. He's not good but he's pretty much an empty suit. He can take his orders to Europe or the Middle East but I'm not sure that anyone will listen to him.
Of course, he’s not acting alone. He’s the heritage puppet. He’s been remarkably quiet except for these outrageous nominations, and the brief meeting with Biden. It seems even the Dems are off the radar too…. Is it the calm before the storm?
I agree with you. He wants suggestions but no one knows if he's going to take the advice. We do know that trump is really neurotic about loyalty over subject matter knowledge. I read that he chose Gaetz over actually qualified people because Gaetz talks and walks the vicious Maga walk and defended trump throughout his trials. I think Gaetz is his vengeance choice but anyone else with credentials for that AG job would also be expected to enact trump's revenge.
I think the above is his strategy for dealing with sucking up all the air in a news cycle--which, with our credulous media, works very well. Not sure it works as well in a Congressional setting. It might...just haven't ever seen a Prez-elect offer up such egregious potential nominees....
He doesn't want to go through the normal Senate hearing process because it'll really attract attention to how inordinately irrelevant their experiences are for the jobs they've been nominated for, and will highlight that they're lowlifes. Also, he knows he can't keep people in his cabinet and wants to be free to fire and hire them. Not having a hearing is a more nimble way to hire someone who's only qualification is loyalty. Somewhere in his small brain, he has to also feel deep embarrassment that his cabinet members don't possess the relevant, prestigious credentials and it makes him look inferior.
Remember when they were complaining about pedophiles and trafficking of children? Good times, good times.... Turns out, as we all knew, they don't care a bit about kids.
It's actually sex trafficking. She was paid for sex via venmo. I believe the issue was that she was solicited across state lines to partipate in parties where drugs were used. In Florida this been in the papers forever as the case against Gaetz's friend Joel Greenberg has dragged on for years.
Thank you Jay. My biggest concern is that the American people won’t hear about any of this. Millions of people are consuming either no news or a batshit crazy alternative reality. Until we can figure out how to breakthrough we’ll be stuck on this Groundhog Day nightmare where MAGA acts like monsters and voters just shrug. That’s the central challenge of the next few years.
You are completely right, Jason: the vast majority of Americans either consume no actual news or listen to the very powerful right-wing media, and that’s not just Fox or OANN but pervasive local media “station groups” like Sinclair Broadcast and iHeart Media, ie hundreds of so-called “local stations” in radio and TV that have their editorial content driven by national management and their oligarch billionaire owners. I sold high-technology to companies like those, as well as the largest of foreign media groups, so I know them well.
That local “trusted” anchor, who provides you with breaking local news events and whom you’ve watched for years, when voicing an op-ed, is actually reading the corporate script. If you go to another “media market”, you’ll see *that* station’s “trusted” anchor reading the precise same words.
Mainstream media simply can’t keep up with the money and power of these right-wing oligarchs and they are all supportive of Trump, either due to blatant self-interest (read: lower taxes and less regulation, particularly at the FCC) or possibly fear of retribution and hedging their bets. And for those in the younger demographics, they listen to podcasts, TikTok, or Instagram, where people like Joe Rogan have outsized power.
It’s a *truly* sad situation and there’s nothing you or I can do to change it. Unless, of course, you’re a liberal billionaire, in which case I implore you to buy up media companies and rebalance the media landscape.
Am turning to rational voices in independent media and finding good ideas. One, Tennessee Brando in the heart of red Tennessee (obviously) mentions the many right wing gatherings that are put on throughout the country through the year. He and others suggest similar events be staged for pro-democracy audiences. I like this idea (as long as speakers are reasonable and grounded in fact and reality). These could be motivating inspiring and problem solving.
I can always count on you, Jay, to help me make sense of nonsense. I had no idea that Boris was still pulling the puppet’s strings. I have never watched a daily soap opera before!
Jay, your commentary doesn’t address the fact that trump clearly has dementia and probably isn’t the one making these appointment decisions. I would bet my life savings that PuTiN or one of his lackies is the brain behind these appointments (or a Heritage Foundation person that the Russians have bought and paid for), putting the bug in trump’s ear and egging him on to choose these people as a giant middle finger to the Democrats and everyone who voted against him.
Trump has dementia but it isn’t full blown and he’s clearly still lucid a lot of the time. Plus, it’s probably Stephen Miller and Boris Epshteyn and Elon Musk whispering in his ear all the time.
I agree with whispers in his ear - but Trump’s personality profile would allow him to agree to these picks. I’m not sure about Musk. His business interests may not be served by the animosity created by these picks. Too many people with power (held currently) and knowledge of world history may see with these picks, that Trump fully plans on carrying out his retribution and vengeance tour. What happened to the “enemies” of Putin, Hitler, Franco, Mussolini - or any of the various twisted Caesar’s???
Just because someone is in Trump’s good graces now doesn’t mean that they will stay there either. Doesn’t work that way with the Dark Triad types.
I think you are giving Musk too much credit. He's got the social IQ of a 12 year old boy. Think Beavis and Butthead. He wants to set things on fire. He's got enough money that he doesn't care.
He practically worships dictators and is a 'close personal friend' of Putin. And now he has the Muskrat AND a Thiel toady dripping poison into his ear. I'd call him the most compromised President ever, but that would imply he'd ever had morals or standards in the first place.
I'm certainly not a political wonk, but it doesn't take much imagination to figure out that there is someone behind the scene, calling the shots. As far as Wiles controlling who has access to him, she will need to begin by confiscating his phone, and locking the door/s to those looking to sneak in behind her back.
What's the word that applies to females having just had their core torn out, the analogue to "emasculated" for males? Whatever it is, it just happened to Wiles. She's toast, functionally speaking. We'll see how many Scaramuccis she actually lasts in the job.
I remember the stories about the trouble trump's chiefs of staff had trying to maintain their control over access to trump. It was frustrating and utterly chaotic. I'm sure that clown car is wherever trump is, despite someone trying to keep it out. Not possible to do.
The entire premise of tRump's second term is in fact to degrade and deprecate the very rôle of government as a pillar of democracy, and equally important, to exact revenge upon those who "mistreated" him in his first term and in the interregnum between administrations.
Never mind Project 2025 and its 900-plus pages of a template for religion-based fascism, tRump is stuffing enough raging incompetents in key positions to execute his primary goals, and all this other nonsense will just have to fight for the attention of an aging-out cretin burdened by a failing brain...and that's the GOOD news!
The way to destroy the state is to place incompetent loyalists at the helm and cause the people to suffer. Mistrust of government rises, the autocrat wins.
Hi Jay — just wanted to say I really appreciate your newsletter and your insights. With legacy media failing us, it's great to have independent voices like yours.
One question on this: while I do understand that in principle, why wouldn't he be blamed for the inevitable suffering in this case? They have the House and Senate too — it's hard to credibly place the blame somewhere else. Even the right-wing media ecosystem can't wave away actual harm people are experiencing (at least among the non-cultists who voted for him). They may mistrust the government more (though I'd argue a lot already do, which is part of the problem), but they know who is at the helm.
The whole world has seen this anti-incumbency movement of punishing the people in charge because costs are too high, wages are stagnant, or some other reason(s) that people are unhappy. This has cut across political ideologies — the Tories got crushed in the UK (incumbents), but the Republicans won here (not incumbents). The same is happening in a lot of other "developed" countries.
I'm not disputing your view, but I'm curious about your thoughts on this question. Thanks
I’m far from an expert in any of this, but I doubt that the majority of those enthralled by Trump will ever blame him for anything. They are brainwashed and need to be deprogrammed, no matter how much they’ll be hurt by Trump. Maybe, once Trump is no longer in office and Vance has taken over, MAGA will start awakening to the reality of who is to blame.
MAGA didn't put Trump over the top. ... MAHA did. Most people don't realize that just over 50% of voters now identify as "independent." While some don't bother to vote at all, this year there was one individual who represented this bloc of voters who are neither radical left nor radical right but rather what Thom Hartmann termed "radical middle" -- in other words, radical common sense looking to have the two sides to cooperate to actually solve problems together. That individual was RFK, Jr. If you only follow legacy media all you know about him is what "they" tell you. Prior to his alliance with Trump, Bobby approached the Harris-Walz campaign about aligning with them to defeat Trump. They didn't even give him the courtesy of an answer. So ... if Trump is such an existential threat to democracy, another Hitler who will cancel all future elections, why didn't Harris Walz say yes? Consider that in facing the existential threat of Hitler the axis powers aligned with Stalin, who may have rivaled Hitler for the most "souls batted in" in the 20th century -- 100% guarantee that if Kamala broadened the tent and invited the independents who actually think independently, she's be the one getting inaugurated in January.
The Republican Senate had two chances to get rid of this guy.
Democrats impeached him.
TWICE.
When people ask Democrats to "DO SOMETHING" in their all caps panic, they should recall the GOP exists. It holds power. And this is what they do with it. Every time.
This is an important point to keep in mind. At times, it has seemed like the GOP wanted Democrats to save them because standing up to Trump themselves would be political suicide. Not to mention threats of actual violence from the deranged cultists.
We gave them TWO big off-ramps with neon flashing signs, and they didn't take them. That is on them.
We'll see one of three things before the midterm elections. #1, Trump produces lower prices, affordable housing, the disappearance of criminal immigrants and international peace through strength - in which case all of his baggage won't matter. The people who came out to put him in office will be happy. #2, he won't produce these things. He'll try to blame Biden and make excuses, but that's a tough sell when you control all branches of government. His 2024 supporters will start whining and then deserting. He'll look bad. Or #3, #2 followed by use of federal forces and tolerated vigilantism to stifle dissent and provide an excuse to set freedom of speech, freedom of assembly, states rights and other of our core principles aside, along with state-sanctioned nationwide voter suppression. I can live with #1 or 2. #3 keeps me up at night.
"The reverse is also true. If people like Gaetz start becoming a serious political liability for Trump, then those such as Ephsteyn who pushed hard for him to be there will suffer the consequences of having damaged Trump through their counsel."
This time around, there is no "damage" because it's all part of the plan. I don't believe Wiles or Lutnick knew nothing about this. Gaetz is a warning to republican members of congress that they will be investigated if they cross trump. Then Musk will help fund a primary challenger.
We really need to dump the thinking that anything will be a "serious political liability for trump;" no such thing exists in this country anymore.
I think noted fascism expert Professor Timothy Snyder is telling us that this has all been planned for a while by Trump together with Putin and Musk. https://open.substack.com/pub/snyder/p/decapitation-strike?r=f0qfn&utm_campaign=post&utm_medium=web
I am still hoping that our military chooses to disobey Trump, as does the Intelligence Community, and not support Trump's obvious humiliation of them, by refusing to follow any orders that violate the constitution.
That disobedience will only happen when we reach the "Break Glass". point.
It cou;d only happen with a covert, well hiddedn, agreement in the entire military to do something they have sworn an oath not to do: stage a coup against civilian authority.
Yikes. That is a scary precedent. It’s difficult to imagine the entire military to agree to do anything like that. Too many support 47.
If following the orders of the civilian leaders and the toady generals it installs ALSO violates the military oath to support the constitution, we could see either a coup or more likely just an "up yours" at the orders.
Yeah, which is why I'm hoping we see a lot of malicious compliance in the face of those orders. There may be some toady Generals, but there's 2.5 million members of the military and something like 700,000 civilians work for the DOD in some capacity. 4 years just isn't long enough to fundamentally change an organization that big with such a strong existing culture. I know there are serious concerns that it would only be 4 years, but I'd put money on Trump shuffling off this mortal coil by 2028 or being so demented that its undeniable (which crazy considering how obviously demented he is now). There are MAGA people in the military, sure, but they are not the majority.
Malicious compliance essentially boils down to people conforming to the letter, but not the spirit, of a request. You strictly follow an order from a superior, even though you know the order is bad or unconstitutional. However, you follow the order in a way that undermines or ignores the intent of the order.
That is what I mean. Or you can collectively refuse to do things that are not in your purview.
I disagree. I think they could change the ethos of this military machine extremely quickly with their plans to take down so many leadership positions. And resistance from them?? I don’t it happening. The resisters will try to leave, I guess.
But a lot of them are trump supporters. Even though he insults them, they think he means those other troops, not them.
The members of the military will support him. They already do. Good luck reasoning with that.
I know 2 people connected with the military in Germany. One is teaching there, another is married to a serviceman. I will ask them what they think.
Hitler had people in his army who rebelled. There will be people, already Trump was talked out of things before. Just like we had Kinzinger and Cheney who said that they stood by the Constitution not loyalty to a person, I assume there are those in the military who will say that too. And in the intelligence community.
They may not say so out loud. It will be hard for us on the outside to really tell what is going on.
Would you be interested in buying the Brooklyn bridge? Sorry, just being snide. But thinking the military would actually defy trump seems unlikely. See history of Germany WWII.
Actually I live in Germany right now and I recommend Prof. Timothy Snyder's history of WWII called Black Earth. Here is a review from when it came out.
https://www.theguardian.com/books/2015/sep/10/black-earth-holocaust-as-history-timothy-snyder-review
My daughter who is in University in Germany this year, had German history that included The Weimar Republic and the Nazis, and so we discussed it a lot. We know that there were plots to kill him from within the military elite and he survived them. So, that was defiance. The unlikely is happening now, but it is obviously not unlikely. Still, I don't see them going along with Trump selling us to the Russians and the Chinese.
Germany wanted to take over Europe (and then Great Britain, Russia Africa and eventually the US I’d guess). I’d doubt 47 has that grandiose a goal, but I wouldn’t put any money on the guys that are really calling the plays. And our situation doesn’t really correspond to Russia or China. That’s something that gives me a tiny sense of hope.
Trump has a bigger grandious goal which is to destroy the entire US for Putin and Xi. That has been made clear by Prof. Timothy Snyder who he is doing it for. Since, I am in a book club that has been reading Project 2025. We have read 20 of the 30 chapters plus the Forward so far and discussed them, that includes the chapters on the Department of Defense, and the Intelligence Community, I understand what is planned. Here is what Snyder says in articles. One is called The Submission Chain where he lays out the hierarchy.
https://open.substack.com/pub/snyder/p/the-submission-chain?r=f0qfn&utm_campaign=post&utm_medium=web
The other is explaining how these cabinet and department head choices fit into this hierarchy called Decapitation Strike.
https://snyder.substack.com/p/decapitation-strike
That explains the tie in to Putin in Xi. The goal is to destroy the US. It is plain as day in the document Mandate for Leadership.
The problem with the military resisting is that an order is like passing a baton in a relay race. No one wants to be "that one" who decides to halt the process and ostracize themselves by disobeying. That's because they know no one will dare do the same, even if they 100% sympathize with his action. That job supports their families.
I'd love for the media to keep track of a 12-person sample of how all those struggling working people who voted for trump, thinking he was really going to help them, wind up as the years (months?) go by. First clue that trump and his people aren't tuned into working people or their needs: a couple of cynical billionaires being turned loose to slice two trillion dollars (or whatever whimsical amount they decide), from our country's institutions which are there to help working people. I'd love to be a fly on their walls when they realize they made a big, huge mistake that they can't fix. I think the first heroic action someone could do is to release the House's Ethic Committee's Report on Matt Gaetz either online, or to a huge national publication. These cabinet choices are going to be a gift to Dems, like his first term choices wound up being.
There are lots of problems with it, but I will assume you have not read Project 2025 so do not understand Trump's plans for the DOD and the Intelligence Community. He plans to humiliate them all. He plans to have people in power who are loyalists, but they will not be well treated. They will be switched around from department to department.
You are assuming we will have a media that is free to report on what they want to. Here are Andra Watkins, who also lives abroad and who also has read Project 2025s advice for how to prepare yourself for the shitstorm that is coming. As Snyder puts it, "This is no longer a post-electoral moment. It is a pre-catastrophic moment. "
https://substack.com/@andrawatkins/p-151612416
Andra Watkins is giving advice about preparing for the changes that you can expect to happen.
My friend who is a prof. of Russian and Slavic languages says all of her colleagues are saying they want to leave the US. We know that people are applying for passports massively and people are reading how to move to Canada and other countries.
https://www.forbes.com/sites/laurabegleybloom/2024/11/06/want-to-leave-the-us-the-best-countries-for-americans-to-move-to/
Don't you think the military is also aware of who Trump is, and he is no friend to the military, and wants to sell them out to Putin. Or, do you believe all of the military is suddenly a Russian asset too? Or China asset? I would like to believe they are going to look out for themselves as in institution. A president who has no limits to his power is not someone to work for. Supposedly 1/3 of the people know White Supremacists in the military, and those White Supremacists want to blow up the nation and the constitution. But does that mean 1/3 is WS, or that everyone else wants to destroy the constitution? I do not think that is true.
But if it is by the time anyone realizes there is a big mistake it may be too late.
Don't forget to add Orban to the mix. He claims he and Trump have a plan.
Senators think they’re special. What makes them special is their advise and consent power. Give that away and they’re nothing but members of the House with a longer term. So I’d be somewhat surprised if Thune gave away the power he worked so long and hard to get.
I tend to agree, but it may not be just up to Thune, I’m afraid. I see a path where Johnson and Trump negate the Senate’s power by creating a disagreement with the Senate over when to adjourn, thereby creating an opportunity for Trump to unilaterally act.
The appointment during recess clause says he can appoint to vacancies which opened during recess. It has been interpreted as any openings. But could someone sue and claim it is only for newly opened positions? If not successful it could at least gum up the works.
I'm sweating bullets over this possibility✌🏻💙
Thune voted no on Impeachment hearings that could have ended this all. He doesn't have any more of a spine than any of them.
Yeah, but doing so didn't ultimately undermine his own power and didn't hurt him politically. He's a spineless POS for sure, it is just harder to imagine completely ceding the power he has, but who the hell knows.
Thank you--that is my feeling as well. Of course, we could all be wrong, but Trump has blown up so many political careers...I doubt Thune wants to be on that list.
Suggestion - please use the phrase had sex with instead of slept with. He is accused of statutory rape.
Seconded! Or 'assaulted' since that's absolutely what it legally is.
It's a sex trafficking case. She was a student that was paid to attend parties where sex and drugs were used. If you want more detail search for Gaetz's friend Joel Greenberg who was sentenced in 2022.
He is a pedophile.
My mental picture of the USS Trump is truly unfortunate and I can only hope there are many icebergs in its immediate future.
Jay, I’d really like to see you expand on Trump’s increased calls for recess appointments given the usual criteria don’t apply, e.g. it’s not yet a recess, he’s not yet president, it’s not an emergency etc. How likely is he to actually succeed in getting this clown car list seated without the usual confirmation hearings, background checks, given the laws, etc.? Can he truly bypass FBI background checks and so on.
I was hoping people wouldn’t provide the road map for this so clearly to the other side—one I said I could see for myself but intentionally didn’t lay out in my piece earlier this week. I don’t know if Johnson will help set up a situation where Trump can unilaterally declare a recess, but I wouldn’t put it past him. We are in very dangerous shark infested waters.
If I recall correctly, the recess has to be at least 10 days before the appointments are consitutional. This was the Supremes (and of course in their role as Extremes they could change this). So assuming Thune has real objections to some of the appointments, what is to stop him a) agreeing to a recess and then calling the Senate back after just a few days, thus setting up Johnson to have to object again, and trump have to unilaterally declare a recess and then call Senate back until the Extremes HAVE to notice trump is playing games? Do you think even the conservatives on the court want the country destroyed? What happens to THEIR jobs if it is?
It could be that we're thinking about this takeover the wrong way. It could be that none of the major players are interested in accumulating more wealth. It could be that they are so deranged that the goal, the whole point of doing this, is to utterly destroy the U.S. Not for any further goal, just destruction for the sake of destruction.
They'll be Kings of the Ashes. "We had to destroy the country to save it."
Yeah, that's what project 2025 is a blueprint for doing. Because we know trump is simply a tool, and there is going to be a pretty vicious competition among all his inner circle to control him, and they're all absolutely idiots and corrupt, you have to know they're going to really screw up somehow and lead to their downfall. I just wonder how badly they have to screw up before people have enough. I'd really like Jack Smith to leave the US and live elsewhere in safety.
There are probably a lot of people who should get out while they can. The problem is, they became people who *should* run by being people who *won't* run.
I'm wondering if he can get his job at the Hague back. He'd be safe over there.
This has been one of my biggest misgivings about the speculations about paths to autocracy--I really fear it's giving the miscreants an even clearer roadmap than Project 2025 already provides.
Here are the analogy's that Prof. Timothy Snyder made this week before todays piece tying into the appointments. First he compared the incoming White House Office to a 60s Sitcom to start off with Humor. That is called Oligarchs' Island. https://open.substack.com/pub/snyder/p/oligarchs-island?r=f0qfn&utm_campaign=post&utm_medium=web
Then, he laid out the hierarchy that Trump exists in internationally that determines his choices for cabinet that is called The Submission Chain.
https://open.substack.com/pub/snyder/p/the-submission-chain?r=f0qfn&utm_campaign=post&utm_medium=web
Today he is pointing out that all of these appointments are a collective that is well thought out which is deliberate to destroy the USA. Revenge from Putin via Trump his biggest asset. A path to the destruction of the USA, which will make life miserable for all, but for those on the bottom most of all. https://open.substack.com/pub/snyder/p/decapitation-strike?r=f0qfn&utm_campaign=post&utm_medium=web
So, at this point I am seeing the only way we can be saved from this is our existing Democrats holding the line where they can, and the DOD and Intelligence community standing up to Trump. In fact, there are plenty who know the keys of regime change. Let it not be Putin changing ours, but us changing his.
I will take this very logical and valid line of reasoning a step farther.
If the Senate accedes to his demands for blanket recess appointments, Biden and the Pentagon had best be in deep, formal discussion about collaborating on direct intervention.
If they have not been in just those sorts of discussions for quite a while now they have been grossly derelict and negligent in their responsibilities. Homeland Security designated Jan. 6, 2025 a National Special Security Event six or eight weeks ago; it would seem reasonable that parallel preparations with the Pentagon would have gotten under way as well.
I hadn't heard about that designation of Jan 6, 2025, but it makes sense. Truly underscores the terrifying time we live in that they had to actually game out preventing another coup attempt.
Unfortunately for us, the coup succeeded this time and they didn't have to storm of the Capitol to do it. The next 4 years should be designated a National Special Security Event.
I agree. I think we should all be writing to the White House and saying this.
I just did email the White House. For all the good it will do. Maybe an avalanche of emails?
I have to wonder, if his objective is to destroy the country, who is supposed to buy his crap?
I also have wondered, if this country is destroyed, how much wealth will the oligarchs be left with?
When the consumers are left trying conserve their money to buy necessities (food, housing, clothing, gas, paying off credit cards) and have little leftover, who is going buy those expensive cars, phones, TV, etc)? We already have seen businesses shift their ready cash in response to tariff increases that TFG promised.
The oligarchs have more wealth than they ever will need and they don't need to sell anything else. I have been saying that Project 2025 is going to turn us into a third world country because the appointments he is making have no surprises to me. Not about the names, but about what type of people he is picking. Christian Nationalists, with a lot of Russian assets like he is. He is a Chinese asset too. Trump didn't know a dollar he was not willing to sell his soul to earn.
The only thing is that for people like that, nothing is ever enough. I don't understand it but it seems to be the case.
While it has the reward effect that makes them want to go for and need more to feel whatever high they feel from acquiring wealth, they still will be financially fine without us.
I guess what matters to them most is being able to rule over the ashes. The associated problem is that some of them have so much money they could lose a $100 billion and not even notice (materially, at least). It's not like your quality of life is that different if you have $5 billion instead of $50 billion.
I hold that the insane wealth/income inequality that has been growing since the 1980s and Reagan is the fundamental problem. No one needs $200 billion or, hell, even $2 billion. Enough is never enough for these people. The concentration of wealth at the top coupled with Citizens United allowing unlimited dark money to be poured into our elections are the two biggest reasons why we're here, in my opinion.
He is doing it for Putin and Xi, and he will monetize it by selling our secrets to them and the Saudis, and the Omanis, and anyone he can rent a very expensive hotel room to.
My favorite dream iceberg scenario is the one where the captain of the Trumptanic keels over from a stroke or a heart attack just when they sight the iceberg, but too late to turn the ship out of harms way. PS: We the People and the next Dem team to run for President are the iceberg!
Problem is Vance is not only inexperienced and a Christian Nationalist but I think easily manipulated so we’d have Musk, Thiel, Leonard and others calling the shots.
Agreed. And I actually think this is the plan. A Vance Presidency just speeds up 2025 with more serious, but equally nefarious appointments. Think General Flynn.
Vance may be easy to manipulate, but I do not think the MAGAs have the same slavish devotion to him that they have to Trump. Vance simply doesn't have that mysterious fascination (if it's charisma, then I am completely devoid of the gene that enables one to see it) that Trump has for them. If The Reps and Senators see that Vance doesn't have the MAGA base, they may be a lot more willing to buck him than they are to buck Trump. If Vance in any way starts or enables a 25th Amendment proceeding...hoo, I'll bet that will rile the base--and not in a good way.
Yes. There was hope with all the Republican leadership from the past saying they were endorsing Kamala that there is still a base of what used to be called "normal" Republicans. And getting rid of Trump could bring them back. Nobody is betting on that now.
Vance has negative charisma with MAGA-folk, and the TechBros haven’t a clue how the government works. Leo knows government but isn’t going to be a “face”; he isn’t going to suddenly be a visible player. This doesn’t mean Vance et alia can’t do damage, but I don’t think the Republicans (Senate, House) have as much fear of them. Perhaps they should, but they don’t.
Seems to me that if the Senate allows him these recess appointments, they're ceding responsibility for vetting the incompetents and they may see that as protecting their "integrity" to their constituents. Then, when these creatures push nefarious actions, the (R)s will say they never supported them in the first place.
I also was wondering if all those same bypasses, (very likely lacking the normal FBI background check, and perhaps the House's Ethics Committee's final report on Matt Gaetz wont be allowed to be released). Are going to wind up ensuring that these into recess appointments.
I'm wondering how long it will be until someone leaks the Gaetz report.
I wonder if these completely wackadoodle nominees are a trial balloon--Trump puts them out to see what the reaction is. We get outraged, and then when someone even slightly less horrible is proposed, we breathe a sigh of relief. It's an attempt to normalize the still truly awful second choice picks.
Two things can be true at once. He could be serious about installing a loyalist extremist in every important branch of government, and he could be testing the resolve of the Senate early.
The wackadoodle nominees and the demand that the Senate allow them as recess appointments are calculated punches in the nose to the Senate to find out how many times the orange criminal can hit them before they finally fight back. They also allow the orange criminal to see who might actually stand up to a punch or two -- that is, not be unquestioningly 100% loyal -- and should therefore be vilified or purged.
Second, it's an application of the "flood the zone with shit" strategy. One or two or maybe even three of the nominees will get filtered out, but that process will be so cumbersome and politically costly to those doing the filtering that the other nominees, all extremists or at least empty-suit compliant (think Rubio) in their own ways, will face much less rigorous opposition, if any at all. Other equally awful but less politically or socially toxic nominees can always be found -- traitors, ideologues, cowards, grifters, and other willing ass-kissers looking for seats on the gravy train abound.
Remember that in the twisted world of narcissists, even bad publicity is still publicity; dominating the news cycle is what counts, not the quality or virtue of the news. "Owning the libs" is (from the MAGA perspective) a serendipitous byproduct of the above.
True, alas.
I hate to say it but I'm almost relived with Rubio as Sec of State. He's not good but he's pretty much an empty suit. He can take his orders to Europe or the Middle East but I'm not sure that anyone will listen to him.
I don’t think he’s capable of that kind of strategic thinking.
I’m not sure he’s acting alone.
Of course, he’s not acting alone. He’s the heritage puppet. He’s been remarkably quiet except for these outrageous nominations, and the brief meeting with Biden. It seems even the Dems are off the radar too…. Is it the calm before the storm?
I agree with you. He wants suggestions but no one knows if he's going to take the advice. We do know that trump is really neurotic about loyalty over subject matter knowledge. I read that he chose Gaetz over actually qualified people because Gaetz talks and walks the vicious Maga walk and defended trump throughout his trials. I think Gaetz is his vengeance choice but anyone else with credentials for that AG job would also be expected to enact trump's revenge.
No, but those who are calling the shots certainly are more than capable of that kind of strategic thinking.
Oop...sorry, I said just about the same thing because I hadn't read through all the comments. Great minds do think alike?
I don't think he would go for anyone less horrible.
Yep. Gaetz is the requisite cruel, crude, low class, loud, and vicious in defending trump.
You think Trump has that much strategy in him?
In 2018, George Lakoff wrote about what Trump does:
"Frame First.
Divert attention.
Deflect blame.
Float trial balloons.
These are the way Trump tries to control the news cycle." https://www.facebook.com/share/v/17gDNpfHH7/
I think the above is his strategy for dealing with sucking up all the air in a news cycle--which, with our credulous media, works very well. Not sure it works as well in a Congressional setting. It might...just haven't ever seen a Prez-elect offer up such egregious potential nominees....
He doesn't want to go through the normal Senate hearing process because it'll really attract attention to how inordinately irrelevant their experiences are for the jobs they've been nominated for, and will highlight that they're lowlifes. Also, he knows he can't keep people in his cabinet and wants to be free to fire and hire them. Not having a hearing is a more nimble way to hire someone who's only qualification is loyalty. Somewhere in his small brain, he has to also feel deep embarrassment that his cabinet members don't possess the relevant, prestigious credentials and it makes him look inferior.
Hey, Jay,I love you,but you gotta call a spade a spade. Gaetz wasn’t sleeping with a 17 year old, he was raping her.
Agreed - she was underage. Nominate a pedophile for Attorney General after all the screaming on the MAGA side about morals.
Remember when they were complaining about pedophiles and trafficking of children? Good times, good times.... Turns out, as we all knew, they don't care a bit about kids.
Projection as usual.
It's actually sex trafficking. She was paid for sex via venmo. I believe the issue was that she was solicited across state lines to partipate in parties where drugs were used. In Florida this been in the papers forever as the case against Gaetz's friend Joel Greenberg has dragged on for years.
Pulling it all together, he’s a rape trafficking pedophile. For the trafficked victim it is not sex.
And now that she is indeed an adult sex worker, Republicans say it doesn't matter.
He is a pedophile.
Thank you Jay. My biggest concern is that the American people won’t hear about any of this. Millions of people are consuming either no news or a batshit crazy alternative reality. Until we can figure out how to breakthrough we’ll be stuck on this Groundhog Day nightmare where MAGA acts like monsters and voters just shrug. That’s the central challenge of the next few years.
You are completely right, Jason: the vast majority of Americans either consume no actual news or listen to the very powerful right-wing media, and that’s not just Fox or OANN but pervasive local media “station groups” like Sinclair Broadcast and iHeart Media, ie hundreds of so-called “local stations” in radio and TV that have their editorial content driven by national management and their oligarch billionaire owners. I sold high-technology to companies like those, as well as the largest of foreign media groups, so I know them well.
That local “trusted” anchor, who provides you with breaking local news events and whom you’ve watched for years, when voicing an op-ed, is actually reading the corporate script. If you go to another “media market”, you’ll see *that* station’s “trusted” anchor reading the precise same words.
Mainstream media simply can’t keep up with the money and power of these right-wing oligarchs and they are all supportive of Trump, either due to blatant self-interest (read: lower taxes and less regulation, particularly at the FCC) or possibly fear of retribution and hedging their bets. And for those in the younger demographics, they listen to podcasts, TikTok, or Instagram, where people like Joe Rogan have outsized power.
It’s a *truly* sad situation and there’s nothing you or I can do to change it. Unless, of course, you’re a liberal billionaire, in which case I implore you to buy up media companies and rebalance the media landscape.
Am turning to rational voices in independent media and finding good ideas. One, Tennessee Brando in the heart of red Tennessee (obviously) mentions the many right wing gatherings that are put on throughout the country through the year. He and others suggest similar events be staged for pro-democracy audiences. I like this idea (as long as speakers are reasonable and grounded in fact and reality). These could be motivating inspiring and problem solving.
I agree. I believe the pro-democracy movement needs to be something bigger than political campaigning.
Thoughtful report, Jay. Anything that makes life difficult for Republicans in DC makes me happy. Let’s see them wiggle out of this one.
I can always count on you, Jay, to help me make sense of nonsense. I had no idea that Boris was still pulling the puppet’s strings. I have never watched a daily soap opera before!
Jay, your commentary doesn’t address the fact that trump clearly has dementia and probably isn’t the one making these appointment decisions. I would bet my life savings that PuTiN or one of his lackies is the brain behind these appointments (or a Heritage Foundation person that the Russians have bought and paid for), putting the bug in trump’s ear and egging him on to choose these people as a giant middle finger to the Democrats and everyone who voted against him.
Trump has dementia but it isn’t full blown and he’s clearly still lucid a lot of the time. Plus, it’s probably Stephen Miller and Boris Epshteyn and Elon Musk whispering in his ear all the time.
And likely a ghoul or two from the Heritage Foundation...
I agree with whispers in his ear - but Trump’s personality profile would allow him to agree to these picks. I’m not sure about Musk. His business interests may not be served by the animosity created by these picks. Too many people with power (held currently) and knowledge of world history may see with these picks, that Trump fully plans on carrying out his retribution and vengeance tour. What happened to the “enemies” of Putin, Hitler, Franco, Mussolini - or any of the various twisted Caesar’s???
Just because someone is in Trump’s good graces now doesn’t mean that they will stay there either. Doesn’t work that way with the Dark Triad types.
I think you are giving Musk too much credit. He's got the social IQ of a 12 year old boy. Think Beavis and Butthead. He wants to set things on fire. He's got enough money that he doesn't care.
He practically worships dictators and is a 'close personal friend' of Putin. And now he has the Muskrat AND a Thiel toady dripping poison into his ear. I'd call him the most compromised President ever, but that would imply he'd ever had morals or standards in the first place.
I'm certainly not a political wonk, but it doesn't take much imagination to figure out that there is someone behind the scene, calling the shots. As far as Wiles controlling who has access to him, she will need to begin by confiscating his phone, and locking the door/s to those looking to sneak in behind her back.
What's the word that applies to females having just had their core torn out, the analogue to "emasculated" for males? Whatever it is, it just happened to Wiles. She's toast, functionally speaking. We'll see how many Scaramuccis she actually lasts in the job.
That won't work! Actually I'd love to be a fly on the wall in Wiles' office when she tries...
LOL! Me, too! The time between now, and January 20, will certainly be *interesting*!
I remember the stories about the trouble trump's chiefs of staff had trying to maintain their control over access to trump. It was frustrating and utterly chaotic. I'm sure that clown car is wherever trump is, despite someone trying to keep it out. Not possible to do.
Kevin Roberts from the Heritage Foundation absolutely involved. And Leo Leonard.
Both contributors to the Project 2025 Christian Taliban takeover of the United states, it's been 50 years in the making.
Looks like Trump is owning the GOP, not the libs. Enjoy, you spineless sycophants. You fully own this shit show.
Excellent comment. Laughed/scoffed out loud. No longer the GOP it’s the TFC (Trump Fascist Cult).
The entire premise of tRump's second term is in fact to degrade and deprecate the very rôle of government as a pillar of democracy, and equally important, to exact revenge upon those who "mistreated" him in his first term and in the interregnum between administrations.
Never mind Project 2025 and its 900-plus pages of a template for religion-based fascism, tRump is stuffing enough raging incompetents in key positions to execute his primary goals, and all this other nonsense will just have to fight for the attention of an aging-out cretin burdened by a failing brain...and that's the GOOD news!
The way to destroy the state is to place incompetent loyalists at the helm and cause the people to suffer. Mistrust of government rises, the autocrat wins.
Hi Jay — just wanted to say I really appreciate your newsletter and your insights. With legacy media failing us, it's great to have independent voices like yours.
One question on this: while I do understand that in principle, why wouldn't he be blamed for the inevitable suffering in this case? They have the House and Senate too — it's hard to credibly place the blame somewhere else. Even the right-wing media ecosystem can't wave away actual harm people are experiencing (at least among the non-cultists who voted for him). They may mistrust the government more (though I'd argue a lot already do, which is part of the problem), but they know who is at the helm.
The whole world has seen this anti-incumbency movement of punishing the people in charge because costs are too high, wages are stagnant, or some other reason(s) that people are unhappy. This has cut across political ideologies — the Tories got crushed in the UK (incumbents), but the Republicans won here (not incumbents). The same is happening in a lot of other "developed" countries.
I'm not disputing your view, but I'm curious about your thoughts on this question. Thanks
I’m far from an expert in any of this, but I doubt that the majority of those enthralled by Trump will ever blame him for anything. They are brainwashed and need to be deprogrammed, no matter how much they’ll be hurt by Trump. Maybe, once Trump is no longer in office and Vance has taken over, MAGA will start awakening to the reality of who is to blame.
MAGA didn't put Trump over the top. ... MAHA did. Most people don't realize that just over 50% of voters now identify as "independent." While some don't bother to vote at all, this year there was one individual who represented this bloc of voters who are neither radical left nor radical right but rather what Thom Hartmann termed "radical middle" -- in other words, radical common sense looking to have the two sides to cooperate to actually solve problems together. That individual was RFK, Jr. If you only follow legacy media all you know about him is what "they" tell you. Prior to his alliance with Trump, Bobby approached the Harris-Walz campaign about aligning with them to defeat Trump. They didn't even give him the courtesy of an answer. So ... if Trump is such an existential threat to democracy, another Hitler who will cancel all future elections, why didn't Harris Walz say yes? Consider that in facing the existential threat of Hitler the axis powers aligned with Stalin, who may have rivaled Hitler for the most "souls batted in" in the 20th century -- 100% guarantee that if Kamala broadened the tent and invited the independents who actually think independently, she's be the one getting inaugurated in January.
The Republican Senate had two chances to get rid of this guy.
Democrats impeached him.
TWICE.
When people ask Democrats to "DO SOMETHING" in their all caps panic, they should recall the GOP exists. It holds power. And this is what they do with it. Every time.
This is an important point to keep in mind. At times, it has seemed like the GOP wanted Democrats to save them because standing up to Trump themselves would be political suicide. Not to mention threats of actual violence from the deranged cultists.
We gave them TWO big off-ramps with neon flashing signs, and they didn't take them. That is on them.
You keep me hopeful Jay.
We'll see one of three things before the midterm elections. #1, Trump produces lower prices, affordable housing, the disappearance of criminal immigrants and international peace through strength - in which case all of his baggage won't matter. The people who came out to put him in office will be happy. #2, he won't produce these things. He'll try to blame Biden and make excuses, but that's a tough sell when you control all branches of government. His 2024 supporters will start whining and then deserting. He'll look bad. Or #3, #2 followed by use of federal forces and tolerated vigilantism to stifle dissent and provide an excuse to set freedom of speech, freedom of assembly, states rights and other of our core principles aside, along with state-sanctioned nationwide voter suppression. I can live with #1 or 2. #3 keeps me up at night.
That's a very good distillation of what lies ahead of us, and I'm right there with you about #3.
"The reverse is also true. If people like Gaetz start becoming a serious political liability for Trump, then those such as Ephsteyn who pushed hard for him to be there will suffer the consequences of having damaged Trump through their counsel."
This time around, there is no "damage" because it's all part of the plan. I don't believe Wiles or Lutnick knew nothing about this. Gaetz is a warning to republican members of congress that they will be investigated if they cross trump. Then Musk will help fund a primary challenger.
We really need to dump the thinking that anything will be a "serious political liability for trump;" no such thing exists in this country anymore.